01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Heracles Almelo to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Eerste Divisie9°4,7 mm9 km/h
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MVV MaastrichtPossession control1–5
Heracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Heracles Almelo (62%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.85 (+26 %)
MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie
1 · MVV Maastricht 19%X 20%62% Heracles Almelo · 2
19%
20%
62%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo (Eerste Divisie, Sunday, 18 October 2026): MVV Maastricht win 19%, draw 20%, Heracles Almelo win 62%. Expected goals (xG): MVV Maastricht 1.04, Heracles Almelo 1.87. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: MVV Maastricht or draw 38%, Heracles Almelo or draw 81%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The model gives Heracles a solid 62% chance to win at Maastricht, with only a 19% chance for the hosts. The XG numbers tell a similar story. Heracles dominate both offensively and defensively, boasting 2.7 xG per match compared to MVV’s modest 1.0. The visitors' counter-attack style is particularly effective against possession-based teams like MVV, so expect the Almelo side to exploit this dynamic.
Despite Heracles’ superior metrics, the most probable scorelines are tighter contests like 1-1 and 1-2. Rain and slick conditions could hinder clear goal-scoring opportunities, which is factored into the model. Still, the expected goals lean towards a match with over 2.5 goals at 56%, but that line feels precarious given the weather impact.
Here’s where the betting angle sharpens. The under 2.5 goals market is priced at 2.85 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, which represents a substantial 26% edge. Though Heracles have the upper hand in almost every metric, the volatile weather and defensive strengths suggest a lower-scoring affair than many expect. Value hunters should consider the under 2.5 goals bet as the standout play in this matchup.
MVV MaastrichtForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #7xT #21xP/match #16Points #7
Key players
- Finn Jesper DickeCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Sil van der WegenRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
- Toni VinogradacFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
Heracles AlmeloForm WLWDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Sem SchepermanCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
- Damon MiraniCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
Final score
1 – 5
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: MVV Maastricht 19% · Draw 20% · Heracles Almelo 62%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MVVBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,75fair 18,99-22 %
MissMatchresultat - Heracles AlmeloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,21fair 5,89-45 %
HitMatch prediction: MVV Maastricht – Heracles Almelo
Predicted score matrix
Heracles Almelo →
MVV Maastricht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–19.8%
0–29.5%
0–35.9%
0–4+4.3%
1
1–05.3%
1–110.9%
1–29.9%
1–36.2%
1–4+4.4%
2
2–02.9%
2–15.5%
2–25.2%
2–33.2%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–01.0%
3–11.9%
3–21.8%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-210%
- 5.1-36%
Expected goals
1,04–1,87
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.85EV+26%
Over 2,556%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Heracles Almelo to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jean-Paul N'djoli to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Jean-Paul N'djoli to score26%
- Djevencio Djovairo van der Kust to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.544% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
- Under 2.544% probability@2.85LeoVegasEV+26%reference odds
- Under 2.544% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · MVV Maastricht | X | 2 · Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 10% 5.90 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 5.75 | 4.80 | 1.42 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 5.90 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 09:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a MVV Maastricht win since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 6.50 to 5.75 (−12%).
1-12 %
18 %13 %
6.50 → 5.75
X-8 %
21 %16 %
5.20 → 4.80
2+5 %
69 %64 %
1.35 → 1.42
Over 2,5+1 %
70 %65 %
1.36 → 1.38
LeoVegas · 21 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
MVV Maastricht
Heracles Almelo
MVV Maastricht (13–16)
Heracles Almelo (31–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
MVV Maastricht
Heracles Almelo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
MVV Maastricht
Heracles Almelo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 25 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 21.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 35 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 376 | 332 |
| Passes against per match | 313 | 262 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.3 | 25.6 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 38 |
| Set pieces | MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 8.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.18 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| Other | MVV Maastricht | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht) | Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 21 |
| Save % | 61% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Helmond Sport – NAC Breda16 October 2026
- Den Bosch – TOP Oss16 October 2026
- VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ16 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Vitesse16 October 2026
- Emmen – Almere City17 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Volendam18 October 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Roda19 October 2026
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap19 October 2026
- Jong PSV – Dordrecht19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?
The model gives Heracles Almelo a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: MVV Maastricht 19%, draw 20%, Heracles Almelo 62%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo?
The model expects 1.04 goals (xG) for MVV Maastricht and 1.87 for Heracles Almelo, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
MVV Maastricht or draw (1X) 38%, Heracles Almelo or draw (X2) 81% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.