Eerste Divisie16°3,3 mm28 km/h

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    Den BoschDen BoschPossession & high press
    2–1
    TOP OssTOP OssLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Den Bosch (57%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.75 (+13 %)

    Den Bosch vs TOP Oss · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Den Bosch 57%X 22%21% TOP Oss · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Den Bosch vs TOP Oss (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 16 October 2026): Den Bosch win 57%, draw 22%, TOP Oss win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Den Bosch 2.10, TOP Oss 0.95. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Den Bosch or draw 79%, TOP Oss or draw 43%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Den Bosch – TOP Oss

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: When Den Bosch face off against TOP Oss, the spotlight falls on the hosts' high pressing game, which has defined much of their season so far. This possession-heavy strategy will clash with TOP Oss's defensive setup, positioning the match as a battle of tactical contrasts. With Den Bosch winning two of the last four encounters and both teams having nearly equal points and expected points this season, there’s a palpable tension in the air.

    Despite the close head-to-head record, the model paints a more favorable picture for Den Bosch, giving them a 57% chance to take the win. The predicted scorelines favor them as well, with both 2-0 and 2-1 standing out as possibilities. The expected goals (xG) statistics support this advantage: Den Bosch are projected at 2.10 xG, significantly higher than TOP Oss's 0.95 xG. This indicates that, even if past meetings have been balanced, the hosts are more likely to create and capitalize on scoring opportunities this time around.

    The expected goals against (xGA) for both teams are identical, suggesting a parity in defensive vulnerability. Yet, with 59% chances for the match to go over 2.5 goals, the market seems to expect fireworks. However, the prospect of rain, with 2.0 mm expected, might dampen those offensive aspirations. The rain could flatten Den Bosch's pressing intensity and TOP Oss’s direct counterattacks, leading to fewer goals.

    For bettors, the standout value lies in a counterintuitive prediction. Although the model forecasts a goal-rich game, the value is clear on the under. At odds of 3.05 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 3.0 with LeoVegas, the under 2.5 goals bet represents a significant edge (26% with the first two, 24% with LeoVegas). This substantial implied edge might just be the sharpest angle in a matchup that promises tactical intrigue over goal glut.

    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form LWLDW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #15xT #3xP/match #13Points #14
    Key players
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.38 · xT 0.01
    • Devon Findell De CorteCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.24
    • Hessel EikelboomCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    Form LWLWW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #17xP/match #5Points #12
    Key players
    • Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
    • Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.18
    • Delano VianelloCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Den Bosch 57% · Draw 22% · TOP Oss 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Den BoschBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,69fair 5,03-27 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - TOP OssBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,46fair 24,56-57 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Den Bosch – TOP Oss

    Predicted score matrix

    TOP Oss →
    Den Bosch →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.0%
    0–14.2%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.7%
    1–19.7%
    1–24.5%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.4%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.3%
    3–16.9%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–06.2%
    4+–15.9%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.1-010%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,10–0,95
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.75EV+13%
    Over 2,559%
    @1.41

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Den Bosch to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Den Bosch to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score28%
    • Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.541% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 2.541% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 1.519% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Den BoschX2 · TOP Oss
    Betsafe1.624.154.40
    LeoVegas1.614.304.40
    Nordicbet1.624.154.40

    Odds updated 16 Oct, 12:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Den Bosch win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.61 (−9%).

    1-9 %
    60 %50 %

    1.77 → 1.61

    X+2 %
    27 %17 %

    4.20 → 4.30

    2+26 %
    29 %19 %

    3.50 → 4.40

    Over 2,5+1 %
    72 %62 %

    1.38 → 1.40

    LeoVegas · 22 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Den Bosch 2Draw 0TOP Oss 2
    Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 3,8)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Den Bosch
    TOP Oss
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Den Bosch (14–18)
    TOP Oss (15–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 194 passningar, xT 1.1FortesSilvan Bröker: 177 passningar, xT 0.19BrökerHessel Eikelboom: 169 passningar, xT 0.17EikelboomMees Laros: 158 passningar, xT 0.93LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 126 passningar, xT 0.27MerbelStan Maas: 107 passningar, xT 0.05MaasSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 90 passningar, xT 0.09BarglanDevon Findell De Corte: 89 passningar, xT 0.93CorteBohao Wang: 70 passningar, xT 0WangKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 63 passningar, xT 1.03BokoloKevin Felida: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Felida
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 194 passningar, xT 0.31VianelloIlounga Isea Pata: 154 passningar, xT 0.8PataMike Havekotte: 149 passningar, xT 0.37HavekotteJulian Kuijpers: 119 passningar, xT 1.01KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 96 passningar, xT 0.17MiguelJustin Mathieu: 81 passningar, xT 0.3MathieuMarcelencio Esajas: 80 passningar, xT 0.17EsajasRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 72 passningar, xT 0.21VenneMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 52 passningar, xT 0.71HinokeKyanno Miranda de Brito e Silva: 35 passningar, xT 0.31SilvaFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT -0.02Nsingi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 194 passningar, xT 1.1FortesSilvan Bröker: 177 passningar, xT 0.19BrökerHessel Eikelboom: 169 passningar, xT 0.17EikelboomMees Laros: 158 passningar, xT 0.93LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 126 passningar, xT 0.27MerbelStan Maas: 107 passningar, xT 0.05MaasSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 90 passningar, xT 0.09BarglanDevon Findell De Corte: 89 passningar, xT 0.93CorteBohao Wang: 70 passningar, xT 0WangKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 63 passningar, xT 1.03BokoloKevin Felida: 34 passningar, xT 0.03Felida
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 194 passningar, xT 0.31VianelloIlounga Isea Pata: 154 passningar, xT 0.8PataMike Havekotte: 149 passningar, xT 0.37HavekotteJulian Kuijpers: 119 passningar, xT 1.01KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 96 passningar, xT 0.17MiguelJustin Mathieu: 81 passningar, xT 0.3MathieuMarcelencio Esajas: 80 passningar, xT 0.17EsajasRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 72 passningar, xT 0.21VenneMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 52 passningar, xT 0.71HinokeKyanno Miranda de Brito e Silva: 35 passningar, xT 0.31SilvaFranslyn Nsingi: 34 passningar, xT -0.02Nsingi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDen BoschTOP Oss
    Points1112
    xPoints13.715.3
    xG per match1.61.3
    xGA per match1.61.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.19
    Playing styleDen BoschTOP Oss
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.50.32
    xT per match1.41
    xTA per match1.11.4
    Won balls, offensive half2821
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.340.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.23
    Entries into the box per match1411
    Entries into the box against1417
    Pass completion %0.690.67
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.61
    Passes per match281233
    Passes against per match311451
    Switches of play per match21.324.4
    Long balls per match3740
    Set piecesDen BoschTOP Oss
    xG from free kicks0.050.06
    Corners per match84.3
    Corners against per match4.27.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.520.62
    OtherDen BoschTOP Oss
    Throw-in control0.770.72
    The goalkeepersPepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)
    Saves4140
    Save %72%76%
    xG prevented54%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Den Bosch
    Fixtures, form & tips
    TOP Oss
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Den Bosch vs TOP Oss according to our model?

    The model gives Den Bosch a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 57%, draw 22%, TOP Oss 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Den Bosch vs TOP Oss?

    The model expects 2.10 goals (xG) for Den Bosch and 0.95 for TOP Oss, 3.05 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Den Bosch or draw (1X) 79%, TOP Oss or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 78%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.