VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie16 October 202618°3,9 mm17 km/h

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VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crosses

4–4

Jong AZPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · VVV-Venlo (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.55 (+10 %)

1 · VVV-Venlo 41%X 24%35% Jong AZ · 2

41%

24%

35%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 16 October 2026): VVV-Venlo win 41%, draw 24%, Jong AZ win 35%. Expected goals (xG): VVV-Venlo 1.95, Jong AZ 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Double chance: VVV-Venlo or draw 65%, Jong AZ or draw 59%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ

Sofia Andersson · 15 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

VVV-Venlo's 41% win probability, compared to Jong AZ's 35%, sets a slight tilt towards the hosts despite their poor head-to-head record — losing three of the last four encounters. This small sample size tempers its impact on the analysis. Venlo's consistent scoring streak across 11 matches underscores their attacking potency, supported by an expected goals figure of 1.95, edging out their opponents' 1.61.

The 69% probability for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals suggests a match leaning towards offensive displays, though the expected rain might temper this slightly. VVV-Venlo's preference for counter-attacks and crosses contrasts with Jong AZ's possession control, potentially clashing styles that could lead to an unpredictable flow. Despite a goal-rich expectation, the model indicates value in betting under 3.5 goals at odds 2.02 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, presenting a 6% edge.

The most likely outcomes appear to be 1-1 and 2-1, both at 9%, hinting at a narrow victory or a draw. While the odds tilt towards a higher-scoring affair, the value lies in the under 3.5 market, especially with Betsafe and Nordicbet, leveraging the model's calculated advantage.

VVV-Venlo

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #12xP/match #7Points #2

Key players

Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.29
Leon Gino SchmidtFxG 0.48 · xT 0.21

Jong AZ

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #10xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Julian OeripCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.13
Jesper ZwartRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24

Final score

4 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: VVV-Venlo 41% · Draw 24% · Jong AZ 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VVV VenloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,65fair 5,04-28 %

Miss

Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – Jong AZ

Predicted score matrix

Jong AZ →

VVV-Venlo →

0–03.1%

0–14.3%

0–23.7%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.1%

1–05.3%

1–19.2%

1–27.2%

1–33.8%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.4%

2–18.7%

2–27.0%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.2%

3–03.5%

3–15.7%

3–24.5%

3–32.4%

3–4+1.4%

4+–02.7%

4+–14.3%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+1.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,95–1,61

Both teams to score

69%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

110%

218%

321%

419%

5+28%

Under 2,531%

@3.55EV+10%

Over 2,569%

@1.30

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Nassim Ait Mouhou to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score69%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Nassim Ait Mouhou to score25%
Rio Robbemond to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.531% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
Under 2.531% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
2 · Jong AZ35% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · VVV-Venlo	X	2 · Jong AZ
Betsafe	1.98	3.85	EV+ 10% 3.15
LeoVegas	2.02	4.00	EV+ 5% 3.00
Nordicbet	1.98	3.85	EV+ 10% 3.15

Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 2.02

X+5 %

26 %21 %

3.80 → 4.00

2+7 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 3.00

Over 2,5-2 %

73 %68 %

1.32 → 1.30

LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

VVV-Venlo 1Draw 0Jong AZ 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

VVV Venlo have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

VVV-Venlo

Jong AZ

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

VVV-Venlo (26–14)

Jong AZ (22–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

VVV-Venlo

Jong AZ

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

VVV-Venlo

Jong AZ

The teams in numbers

Performance	VVV-Venlo	Jong AZ
Points	21	13
xPoints	15	14.1
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.23

Playing style	VVV-Venlo	Jong AZ
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.53
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	19
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	330	375
Passes against per match	344	364
Switches of play per match	27.5	23.2
Long balls per match	39	44

Set pieces	VVV-Venlo	Jong AZ
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	5.5	5
Corners against per match	5.1	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.78	0.56

Other	VVV-Venlo	Jong AZ
Throw-in control	0.69	0.8

The goalkeepers	Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo)	Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)
Saves	33	20
Save %	70%	63%
xG prevented	36%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

VVV-Venlo

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong AZ

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ according to our model?

The model gives VVV-Venlo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 41%, draw 24%, Jong AZ 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 69% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ?

The model expects 1.95 goals (xG) for VVV-Venlo and 1.61 for Jong AZ, 3.55 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

VVV-Venlo or draw (1X) 65%, Jong AZ or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.