Jong Ajax vs Vitesse Prediction: Away win 48% (2 Nov 2026)

Eerste Divisie2 November 20268°11 km/h

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Jong AjaxPossession control

VitesseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Vitesse (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.05 (+23 %)

1 · Jong Ajax 29%X 24%48% Vitesse · 2

29%

24%

48%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong Ajax vs Vitesse (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026): Jong Ajax win 29%, draw 24%, Vitesse win 48%. Expected goals (xG): Jong Ajax 1.46, Vitesse 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Jong Ajax or draw 52%, Vitesse or draw 71%. Prediction updated Sunday, 25 October 2026.

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Analysis: Jong Ajax – Vitesse

Erik Lindberg · 25 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: An intriguing clash of styles awaits as Jong Ajax, known for their possession-based approach, faces a Vitesse side that leans on resolute defense and sharp counterattacks. The model tips the balance towards the visitors with a 48% win probability, suggesting they are the likely victors in this Eerste Divisie matchup. Vitesse's superiority is reflected in their 17 points compared to the hosts' 8, and an xPoints advantage of 17.3 to 10.0.

Despite Jong Ajax's preference for controlling the ball, their defensive frailties are evident, conceding 1.7 expected goals against (xGA) per match, more than Vitesse's 1.5. The visitors not only have the edge in defensive solidity but also maintain a slight offensive advantage with 1.6 expected goals (xG) per match compared to the hosts' 1.3. This dynamic suggests a likely Vitesse win, though their direct style might yield a tight contest.

The head-to-head data since 2023 shows a small sample size with an even split: one win each and two draws. This split adds little weight compared to current form, where Vitesse's higher xG and points are telling. Most models predict a 1-1 draw or a 1-2 win for Vitesse, aligning with the visitors' knack for exploiting defensive lapses.

Bookmakers favor Vitesse, and there's potential value for bettors here. Unibet offers Vitesse at odds of 2.20, reflecting the model's lean and current form indicators. This is not a guarantee but a value angle based on statistical analysis.

Expect a game that does not explode with goals. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 60%, a modest expectation given the teams' profiles. While both teams to score is plausible at 62%, the likelihood of a Vitesse win, perhaps by 1-2, appears the most rational path considering the numbers.

Jong Ajax

Form DWLLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #15xT #7xP/match #8Points #20

Key players

Emre ÜnüvarRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.14
Pharell NashLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.35
Mark VerkuijlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Vitesse

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #6xP/match #9Points #8

Key players

Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30
Naoufal BannisFxG 0.66 · xT -0.04
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Jong Ajax – Vitesse

Predicted score matrix

Vitesse →

Jong Ajax →

0–04.9%

0–17.1%

0–26.0%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.4%

1–111.2%

1–28.8%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.9%

2–17.9%

2–26.4%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.4%

3–13.9%

3–23.1%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,46–1,62

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@3.05EV+23%

Over 2,560%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vitesse to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vitesse to win48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Pontus Bror Harry Dahbo to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Pontus Bror Harry Dahbo to score19%
Mark Thomas Willem Verkuijl to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.540% probability@3.05LeoVegasEV+23%reference odds
Under 3.563% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
Under 4.580% probability@1.38LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jong Ajax	X	2 · Vitesse
LeoVegas	2.95	4.00	1.98

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

10 %

33 %28 %

2.95 → 2.95

X+4 %

25 %20 %

3.85 → 4.00

20 %

49 %44 %

1.98 → 1.98

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Jong Ajax 1Draw 2Vitesse 1

Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong Ajax

Vitesse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jong Ajax (13–22)

Vitesse (16–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong Ajax

Vitesse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong Ajax

Vitesse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong Ajax	Vitesse
Points	8	17
xPoints	10	17.3
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.19

Playing style	Jong Ajax	Vitesse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.5
xT per match	1	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.78	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.69
Passes per match	361	309
Passes against per match	306	365
Switches of play per match	32.4	28.9
Long balls per match	40	38

Set pieces	Jong Ajax	Vitesse
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	5	5.8
Corners against per match	6.7	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.65

Other	Jong Ajax	Vitesse
Throw-in control	0.72	0.71

The goalkeepers	Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax)	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)
Saves	31	33
Save %	60%	79%
xG prevented	32%	77%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jong Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong Ajax vs Vitesse according to our model?

The model gives Vitesse a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Ajax 29%, draw 24%, Vitesse 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Jong Ajax vs Vitesse?

The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Jong Ajax and 1.62 for Vitesse, 3.09 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Jong Ajax or draw (1X) 52%, Vitesse or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.