Jong PSV vs NAC Breda Prediction: Away win 55% (2 Nov 2026)

Eerste Divisie2 November 20266°12 km/h

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Jong PSVPossession & high press

NAC BredaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · NAC Breda (55%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.85 (+0 %)

1 · Jong PSV 23%X 21%55% NAC Breda · 2

23%

21%

55%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong PSV vs NAC Breda (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026): Jong PSV win 23%, draw 21%, NAC Breda win 55%. Expected goals (xG): Jong PSV 1.37, NAC Breda 2.11. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Jong PSV or draw 45%, NAC Breda or draw 77%. Prediction updated Sunday, 25 October 2026.

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Analysis: Jong PSV – NAC Breda

Marcus Johansson · 25 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A small head-to-head sample between Jong PSV and NAC Breda provides limited insight, but the patterns emerging from recent form and expected goals offer a clearer picture. The visitors come into this clash riding a robust unbeaten streak across their last six league matches, a testament to their resilience and tactical discipline. Meanwhile, the hosts have struggled to consistently translate their possession and pressing philosophy into points, reflecting in their lower league standing and expected points tally.

NAC Breda's attacking verve is prominent, having found the net in each of their last 10 league outings. Their xG of 1.8 per match further underscores their offensive prowess, suggesting they can penetrate the defense of a home side that concedes an average of 1.6 xGA per game. Jong PSV, with their similar high-pressing approach, will need to be wary of leaving gaps that Breda can exploit, particularly given their defensive vulnerabilities.

The model's numbers lean heavily towards an outcome favoring the visitors, with NAC Breda holding a 55% chance of victory and the most likely scorelines tipping towards a 1-2 or 0-2 result. The expected goals for the match sit at 3.48 combined, pushing the likelihood of over 2.5 goals to 67%. Both teams are capable of finding the back of the net, but Breda's tighter defense might just edge the contest.

For bettors seeking value, Unibet offers NAC Breda to win at 2.20, which aligns with the model's bias towards the visitors. Given their superior form and attacking efficiency, this wager seems to hold positive expected value.

Jong PSV

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #16xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Madi MonamayCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Essien BasseyRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
Shuryjano CornecionCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.15

NAC Breda

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #8xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Kamal Deen SowahRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Mohamed NassohCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
Rio HillenCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Jong PSV – NAC Breda

Predicted score matrix

NAC Breda →

Jong PSV →

0–03.4%

0–16.3%

0–26.9%

0–34.8%

0–4+4.1%

1–04.0%

1–19.2%

1–29.4%

1–36.6%

1–4+5.7%

2–02.9%

2–16.1%

2–26.4%

2–34.5%

2–4+3.9%

3–01.3%

3–12.8%

3–22.9%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.8%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.1-19%
3.0-27%
4.1-37%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,37–2,11

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@3.00

Over 2,567%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

NAC Breda to win55%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

NAC Breda to win55%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jannes Van Hecke to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jannes Van Hecke to score30%
Maximilien Balard to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.554% probability@1.85LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jong PSV	X	2 · NAC Breda
LeoVegas	4.20	4.30	1.58

Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

1-11 %

23 %18 %

4.70 → 4.20

X0 %

24 %19 %

4.30 → 4.30

2+4 %

61 %56 %

1.52 → 1.58

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
NAC Breda have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong PSV

NAC Breda

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jong PSV (17–19)

NAC Breda (23–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

NAC Breda

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

NAC Breda

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong PSV	NAC Breda
Points	16	21
xPoints	15.9	18.4
xG per match	1.4	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.14

Playing style	Jong PSV	NAC Breda
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.53	0.66
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	24	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.31
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	16	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.71
Passes per match	410	387
Passes against per match	320	284
Switches of play per match	25.1	25.7
Long balls per match	38	37

Set pieces	Jong PSV	NAC Breda
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.11
Corners per match	5	6.2
Corners against per match	5.4	3.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.68

Other	Jong PSV	NAC Breda
Throw-in control	0.74	0.76

The goalkeepers	Khadim Ngom (Jong PSV)	Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)
Saves	18	26
Save %	72%	58%
xG prevented	57%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jong PSV

Fixtures, form & tips

NAC Breda

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong PSV vs NAC Breda according to our model?

The model gives NAC Breda a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 23%, draw 21%, NAC Breda 55%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Jong PSV vs NAC Breda?

The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for Jong PSV and 2.11 for NAC Breda, 3.47 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Jong PSV or draw (1X) 45%, NAC Breda or draw (X2) 77% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.