Roda vs Jong AZ Prediction: Home win 50% (30 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie30 October 20268°10 km/h

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RodaPossession control

Jong AZPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Roda (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Jong AZ @ 4.25 (+6 %)

1 · Roda 50%X 25%25% Jong AZ · 2

50%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Roda vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 30 October 2026): Roda win 50%, draw 25%, Jong AZ win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Roda 1.93, Jong AZ 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: Roda or draw 75%, Jong AZ or draw 50%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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Analysis: Roda – Jong AZ

Marcus Johansson · 25 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Roda's recent meetings with Jong AZ paint a challenging picture for the hosts, failing to secure a single win in their last four encounters. With a small sample size of just four matches, this head-to-head record should be viewed cautiously. Roda's current form, however, gives them a slight edge, as they hold 22 points compared to Jong AZ's 17 in the league standings.

Both teams favor a possession-based style, which can often lead to a high number of chances being created. The expected goals model reveals Roda's attacking potential at 1.93, slightly overshadowing Jong AZ's 1.42. This setup suggests a match with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities on both sides, aligning with the model's 65% probability for over 2.5 goals. This percentage also reflects the likelihood of both teams finding the net.

Despite Roda's superior position in the table, their xPoints (17.8) are only marginally better than those of the visitors (16.2), while their xG per match (1.4) is actually slightly lower than Jong AZ's (1.5). Jong AZ, for their part, edges Roda in attacking xG at 1.5 per match but concedes more defensively with an xGA of 1.5 compared to Roda's 1.2. This defensive vulnerability could tip the scales in Roda's favor, especially if they manage to capitalize on set pieces or quick transitions.

Considering these dynamics, a 2-1 victory for Roda appears a plausible outcome, slightly bucking the trend of their recent head-to-head struggles. Bookmakers have priced Roda at 2.00, and with the model and form leaning towards a home win, there is a potential value (EV+) in backing the hosts to finally overcome their visitors.

Roda

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #14xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Joshua NisbetCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Marco TolCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11

Jong AZ

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #11xP/match #13Points #7

Key players

Julian OeripCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
Jesper ZwartRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Jerolldino BergraafRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Roda – Jong AZ

Predicted score matrix

Jong AZ →

Roda →

0–03.8%

0–14.7%

0–23.5%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–06.5%

1–19.9%

1–26.8%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.3%

2–26.6%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–04.2%

3–16.0%

3–24.2%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.0%

4+–03.2%

4+–14.5%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,93–1,42

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.80

Over 2,565%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roda to win50%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roda to win50%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score31%
Julian Sijbrands to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jong AZ25% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
2 · Jong AZ25% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
X · Draw25% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Roda	X	2 · Jong AZ
Betsafe	1.65	EV+ 2% 4.15	EV+ 6% 4.25
LeoVegas	1.68	EV+ 3% 4.20	3.95
Nordicbet	1.65	EV+ 2% 4.15	EV+ 6% 4.25

Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Roda win since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 1.91 to 1.68 (−12%).

1-12 %

57 %47 %

1.91 → 1.68

X+6 %

28 %18 %

3.95 → 4.20

2+23 %

31 %21 %

3.20 → 3.95

Over 2,5-4 %

71 %61 %

1.44 → 1.38

LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Roda 0Draw 1Jong AZ 3

Goals: 6–14 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roda

Jong AZ

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roda (15–11)

Jong AZ (31–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roda

Jong AZ

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roda

Jong AZ

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roda	Jong AZ
Points	22	17
xPoints	17.8	16.2
xG per match	1.4	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.27

Playing style	Roda	Jong AZ
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.54
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	370	375
Passes against per match	371	357
Switches of play per match	20.2	23.8
Long balls per match	32	43

Set pieces	Roda	Jong AZ
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	5.4	5
Corners against per match	3.9	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.6

Other	Roda	Jong AZ
Throw-in control	0.77	0.82

The goalkeepers	Justin Treichel (Roda)	Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)
Saves	45	20
Save %	82%	63%
xG prevented	67%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Roda

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong AZ

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roda vs Jong AZ according to our model?

The model gives Roda a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 50%, draw 25%, Jong AZ 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Roda vs Jong AZ?

The model expects 1.93 goals (xG) for Roda and 1.42 for Jong AZ, 3.35 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Roda or draw (1X) 75%, Jong AZ or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.