Eerste Divisie9°9 km/h

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    WaalwijkWaalwijkPossession & high press
    vs
    Almere CityAlmere CityPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Waalwijk (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.75 (+13 %)

    Waalwijk vs Almere City · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Waalwijk 43%X 25%31% Almere City · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Waalwijk vs Almere City (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 30 October 2026): Waalwijk win 43%, draw 25%, Almere City win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Waalwijk 1.71, Almere City 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Waalwijk or draw 69%, Almere City or draw 57%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Waalwijk – Almere City

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Almere City's streak of scoring in 18 consecutive league matches is notable, but it may not fully offset their defensive vulnerabilities against Waalwijk's high press style. The hosts have a slight edge in xGoals Allowed (1.1) compared to the visitors’ (1.6), suggesting a more solid defensive setup. The model leans towards Waalwijk with a win probability of 43%, and their recent head-to-head record supports this, albeit with only two encounters since 2023.

    Expected goals indicate a slight scoring advantage for Waalwijk (1.71) over Almere City (1.34), but the likelihood of both teams finding the net remains high at 61%. Despite the expected goals suggesting potential for over 2.5 goals at 59%, a tighter match is plausible. Waalwijk's possession and high-press approach against Almere City's possession control could still lead to fewer clear-cut chances.

    The sharpest betting angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market. With odds of 2.75 offered by Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, there is a 13% value edge according to the model's 41% assessment. This represents a clear opportunity for a calculated wager, given the underlying metrics and defensive considerations.

    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    Form LDLDD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #4xT #4xP/match #15Points #10
    Key players
    • Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.40
    • Faissal Al MazyaniRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Jordy de WijsCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
    Almere CityAlmere City
    Form WWWLL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #1xP/match #3Points #18
    Key players
    • James LawrenceCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Jamie JacobsRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.33
    • Martin Jean WasinskiRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22

    Match prediction: Waalwijk – Almere City

    Predicted score matrix

    Almere City →
    Waalwijk →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–16.0%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–07.8%
    1–111.2%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.2%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,71–1,34
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,541%
    @2.75EV+13%
    Over 2,559%
    @1.42

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Waalwijk or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Waalwijk or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Thijs van Leeuwen to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Olivier de Nijs to score24%
    • Loek Postma to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.541% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 2.541% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 1.519% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · WaalwijkX2 · Almere City
    Betsafe2.123.602.95
    LeoVegas2.183.702.75
    Nordicbet2.123.602.95

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:35

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    45 %40 %

    2.10 → 2.18

    X-3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.80 → 3.70

    2-4 %
    35 %30 %

    2.88 → 2.75

    Over 2,5+1 %
    68 %63 %

    1.40 → 1.42

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Waalwijk 1Draw 1Almere City 0
    Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Almere City FC have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Waalwijk
    Almere City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Waalwijk (21–17)
    Almere City (12–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Waalwijk
    Jordy de Wijs: 214 passningar, xT 0.78WijsLoek Postma: 178 passningar, xT 0.07PostmaLiam van Gelderen: 123 passningar, xT 0.16GelderenSven van der Plas: 113 passningar, xT 0.18PlasTim van de Loo: 101 passningar, xT 0.12LooRyan Fage: 99 passningar, xT 0.48FageFaissal Al Mazyani: 88 passningar, xT 0.24MazyaniNazjir Held: 88 passningar, xT 0.52HeldJuan Carlos Familia-Castillo: 86 passningar, xT 0.91Familia-CastilloYoram van der Veen: 76 passningar, xT 0.85VeenNiek Schiks: 73 passningar, xT 0.2Schiks
    Almere City
    Joey Jacobs: 184 passningar, xT 0.27JacobsJames Lawrence: 165 passningar, xT 0.25LawrenceTeun Bijleveld: 148 passningar, xT 0.5BijleveldMartin Jean Wasinski: 146 passningar, xT 0.88WasinskiEnzo Cornelisse: 130 passningar, xT 0.38CornelisseMarley Dors: 124 passningar, xT 0.28DorsWessel Speel: 113 passningar, xT 0.24SpeelMilan de Haan: 96 passningar, xT 0.61HaanMees Hoedemakers: 90 passningar, xT 0.32HoedemakersFerdy Druijf: 85 passningar, xT -0.2DruijfJamie Jacobs: 74 passningar, xT 0.63Jacobs
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Waalwijk
    Jordy de Wijs: 214 passningar, xT 0.78WijsLoek Postma: 178 passningar, xT 0.07PostmaLiam van Gelderen: 123 passningar, xT 0.16GelderenSven van der Plas: 113 passningar, xT 0.18PlasTim van de Loo: 101 passningar, xT 0.12LooRyan Fage: 99 passningar, xT 0.48FageFaissal Al Mazyani: 88 passningar, xT 0.24MazyaniNazjir Held: 88 passningar, xT 0.52HeldJuan Carlos Familia-Castillo: 86 passningar, xT 0.91Familia-CastilloYoram van der Veen: 76 passningar, xT 0.85VeenNiek Schiks: 73 passningar, xT 0.2Schiks
    Almere City
    Joey Jacobs: 184 passningar, xT 0.27JacobsJames Lawrence: 165 passningar, xT 0.25LawrenceTeun Bijleveld: 148 passningar, xT 0.5BijleveldMartin Jean Wasinski: 146 passningar, xT 0.88WasinskiEnzo Cornelisse: 130 passningar, xT 0.38CornelisseMarley Dors: 124 passningar, xT 0.28DorsWessel Speel: 113 passningar, xT 0.24SpeelMilan de Haan: 96 passningar, xT 0.61HaanMees Hoedemakers: 90 passningar, xT 0.32HoedemakersFerdy Druijf: 85 passningar, xT -0.2DruijfJamie Jacobs: 74 passningar, xT 0.63Jacobs

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWaalwijkAlmere City
    Points1610
    xPoints15.510
    xG per match1.32
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.310.23
    Playing styleWaalwijkAlmere City
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.60.45
    xT per match1.41.9
    xTA per match0.831.3
    Won balls, offensive half2727
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.26
    Entries into the box per match1819
    Entries into the box against1016
    Pass completion %0.760.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.67
    Passes per match350321
    Passes against per match338403
    Switches of play per match25.226.2
    Long balls per match3740
    Set piecesWaalwijkAlmere City
    xG from free kicks0.060.04
    Corners per match5.24.5
    Corners against per match4.96.7
    xG per corner0.010.07
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.7
    OtherWaalwijkAlmere City
    Throw-in control0.70.74
    The goalkeepersNiek Schiks (Waalwijk)Wessel Speel (Almere City)
    Saves2720
    Save %66%80%
    xG prevented49%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Waalwijk
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Almere City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Waalwijk vs Almere City according to our model?

    The model gives Waalwijk a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waalwijk 43%, draw 25%, Almere City 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Waalwijk vs Almere City?

    The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Waalwijk and 1.34 for Almere City, 3.05 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Waalwijk or draw (1X) 69%, Almere City or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.