01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Volendam to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Eerste Divisie10°0,3 mm8 km/h
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VolendamPossession controlvs
De GraafschapPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Volendam (55%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.45 (+25 %)
Volendam vs De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie
1 · Volendam 55%X 25%20% De Graafschap · 2
55%
25%
20%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Volendam vs De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 30 October 2026): Volendam win 55%, draw 25%, De Graafschap win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Volendam 2.05, De Graafschap 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Volendam or draw 80%, De Graafschap or draw 45%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.
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Analysis: Volendam – De Graafschap
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
With Volendam boasting an 84% home win rate all-time, the numbers heavily favor the hosts, who are also seven points clear of De Graafschap in the current standings. Both teams prefer to dominate possession, suggesting that the match will see a tactical battle rather than an open, end-to-end affair. However, Volendam's superior expected goals (xG) of 1.9 per match compared to the visitors' 1.2 underscores their attacking edge.
The small sample size of head-to-head matches since 2023, where each team secured a win, offers little to sway the overall outlook. More telling is Volendam's consistent ability to convert their possession into tangible outcomes, as reflected in their 17.0 xPoints against De Graafschap’s 12.8. The model's probabilities give Volendam a 55% chance of victory, which aligns with their home dominance and slightly better form.
While the model leans towards a 2-1 or 2-0 finish for Volendam, there's a notable 10% probability for a 1-1 draw, reflective of De Graafschap's potential to disrupt. Both teams are likely to score, given a 62% chance, but the undercurrent of this game could be more tactical than explosive. The goal expectancy points to a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, but the potential for a lower-scoring match is not negligible.
The sharpest betting angle lies in the under markets. Despite high goal expectations, the odds for under 2.5 goals at 3.45 with Betsafe and Nordicbet present a compelling 25% edge according to the model's valuation. Even more enticing is the under 1.5 at 7.8 with Betsafe, offering a 22% edge. These odds reflect a significant market oversight, suggesting value in expecting a tighter contest than the broad consensus might anticipate.
VolendamForm WLWDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #13xT #10xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Henk VeermanFxG 0.62 · xT 0.12
- Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Daan HuismanCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
De GraafschapForm WDWLD
League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #18xP/match #22Points #15
Key players
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
- Mark DiemersLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Gabriele FinocchiaroCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Volendam – De Graafschap
Predicted score matrix
De Graafschap →
Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–14.4%
0–22.9%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–07.3%
1–19.8%
1–25.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.7%
2–26.0%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–05.3%
3–16.6%
3–24.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–04.3%
4+–15.4%
4+–23.4%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,05–1,25
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@3.45EV+25%
Over 2,564%
@1.30
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Volendam to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Reuven Niemeijer to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Reuven Niemeijer to score34%
- Donny Warmerdam to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.536% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.536% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
- Under 1.516% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Volendam | X | 2 · De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 1.92 | EV+ 3% 4.10 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:35
Odds movement
1+1 %
49 %44 %
1.91 → 1.92
X+3 %
25 %20 %
4.00 → 4.10
2-2 %
33 %28 %
3.15 → 3.10
Over 2,5-1 %
74 %69 %
1.31 → 1.30
LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVolendam 1Draw 0De Graafschap 1
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Volendam win 84% of their home matches all-time (25 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Volendam
De Graafschap
Volendam (29–20)
De Graafschap (15–26)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Volendam
De Graafschap
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Volendam
De Graafschap
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Volendam | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 12 |
| xPoints | 17 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Volendam | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 365 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 323 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.2 | 33.9 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 43 |
| Set pieces | Volendam | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.29 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 7.8 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| Other | Volendam | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Hidde Jurjus (Volendam) | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 46 |
| Save % | 80% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Roda – Jong AZ30 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Almere City30 October 2026
- Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- MVV Maastricht – VVV-Venlo31 October 2026
- Emmen – Den Bosch1 November 2026
- Heracles Almelo – TOP Oss2 November 2026
- Jong Ajax – Vitesse2 November 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Dordrecht2 November 2026
- Jong PSV – NAC Breda2 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Volendam vs De Graafschap according to our model?
The model gives Volendam a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 55%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Volendam vs De Graafschap?
The model expects 2.05 goals (xG) for Volendam and 1.25 for De Graafschap, 3.29 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Volendam or draw (1X) 80%, De Graafschap or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.