Emmen vs Den Bosch Prediction: Home win 61% (1 Nov 2026)

Eerste Divisie1 November 20266°11 km/h

Läs på svenska

EmmenPossession & high press

Den BoschPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Emmen (61%)

1 · Emmen 61%X 20%19% Den Bosch · 2

61%

20%

19%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Emmen vs Den Bosch (Eerste Divisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Emmen win 61%, draw 20%, Den Bosch win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Emmen 2.19, Den Bosch 1.27. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Emmen or draw 81%, Den Bosch or draw 39%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Emmen – Den Bosch

Anna Karlsson · 25 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Three consecutive victories set the stage for Emmen as they host Den Bosch, showcasing a potent attack that has found the net in eight straight league games. The hosts are in a rich vein of form, and their attacking prowess is backed by a strong expected goals metric of 2.19 for this encounter. With a 61% win probability assigned by the model, Emmen are clear favorites.

Den Bosch, however, can't be dismissed lightly. Although they are underdogs with only a 19% chance of winning, their playing style mirrors Emmen's, focusing on possession and a high press. This similarity might allow the visitors to disrupt Emmen's rhythm, potentially making life uncomfortable for the hosts. Yet, the defensive frailties of Den Bosch, highlighted by an xGA of 1.6 per match, present opportunities for Emmen to exploit.

Despite their recent head-to-head record against Den Bosch, where Emmen have only managed one win in four matches, this small sample size weighs less than their current form and underlying metrics. The momentum is firmly with Emmen, bolstered by a superior points tally (25 vs. 15) and a clear xPoints edge (20.1 vs. 17.0).

The most likely outcome leans towards a 2-1 victory for Emmen, aligning with the expected goals that favor a high-scoring affair. With a probability of 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams finding the net, this match promises a lively contest.

This assessment reflects Emmen's robust form and statistical superiority, making them a compelling option for those weighing the match outcome.

Emmen

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Casper StaringCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Bryan Albert Van HoveLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.25

Den Bosch

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #5xP/match #11Points #12

Key players

Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.39 · xT 0.32
Hessel EikelboomCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Mees LarosLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Emmen – Den Bosch

Predicted score matrix

Den Bosch →

Emmen →

0–03.4%

0–13.7%

0–22.5%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.5%

1–06.6%

1–19.0%

1–25.6%

1–32.4%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–19.6%

2–26.1%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–05.5%

3–17.0%

3–24.4%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.8%

4+–05.0%

4+–16.4%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.3-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,19–1,27

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@3.00

Over 2,567%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Emmen to win61%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Emmen to win61%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jack Cooper-Love to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Jack Cooper-Love to score42%
Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Emmen61% probability@1.73LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.555% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
Under 4.573% probability@1.38LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Emmen	X	2 · Den Bosch
LeoVegas	EV+ 5% 1.73	4.10	3.80

Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

10 %

55 %50 %

1.73 → 1.73

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.10

2+1 %

27 %22 %

3.75 → 3.80

Over 2,5+1 %

72 %67 %

1.32 → 1.33

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Emmen 1Draw 1Den Bosch 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Emmen come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Emmen have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Emmen

Den Bosch

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Emmen (26–19)

Den Bosch (18–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Emmen

Den Bosch

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Emmen

Den Bosch

The teams in numbers

Performance	Emmen	Den Bosch
Points	25	15
xPoints	20.1	17
xG per match	1.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.28

Playing style	Emmen	Den Bosch
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.6	0.5
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.31
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.65
Passes per match	399	284
Passes against per match	321	312
Switches of play per match	23.4	20.7
Long balls per match	29	36

Set pieces	Emmen	Den Bosch
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	6.6	7.6
Corners against per match	3.4	4.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.6

Other	Emmen	Den Bosch
Throw-in control	0.73	0.74

The goalkeepers	Sam Karssies (Emmen)	Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)
Saves	36	45
Save %	67%	73%
xG prevented	55%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Emmen

Fixtures, form & tips

Den Bosch

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Emmen vs Den Bosch according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 61%, draw 20%, Den Bosch 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Emmen vs Den Bosch?

The model expects 2.19 goals (xG) for Emmen and 1.27 for Den Bosch, 3.46 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Emmen or draw (1X) 81%, Den Bosch or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.