Eerste Divisie7°10 km/h

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    Jong UtrechtJong UtrechtPossession control
    vs
    DordrechtDordrechtPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Dordrecht (40%)

    Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong Utrecht 34%X 26%40% Dordrecht · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026): Jong Utrecht win 34%, draw 26%, Dordrecht win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Jong Utrecht 1.65, Dordrecht 1.87. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. Double chance: Jong Utrecht or draw 60%, Dordrecht or draw 66%. Prediction updated Sunday, 25 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Jong Utrecht – Dordrecht

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Four consecutive losses paint a troubling picture for Jong Utrecht, despite their favorable head-to-head against Dordrecht since 2023. The hosts' current form is a stark contrast to their past encounters, as the visitors hold a lead in both the actual and expected points tally this season. With percentages pointing to a 40% chance for Dordrecht to take the win, the model leans towards the visitors as favorites.

    The expected goals tell a story of potential firepower, with Jong Utrecht at 1.65 and Dordrecht at 1.87. This aligns with the model's 68% over 2.5 goals probability and 69% likelihood of both teams scoring. Despite both teams favoring possession control, the defensive frailties of the hosts, conceding an average of 2.0 xGA per match, could tip the scale in favor of Dordrecht's attack.

    With Dordrecht's slight edge and the model backing their success, the most plausible outcome appears to be a 1-2 victory for the visitors. In a match likely to see a goal-filled evening, backing Dordrecht aligns with the data's narrative.

    Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #22xT #19xP/match #20Points #21
    Key players
    • Noa DundasFxG 0.25 · xT 0.08
    • Wessel KooyCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
    • Massien GhaddariFxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
    DordrechtDordrecht
    Form WDLWL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #17xP/match #19Points #17
    Key players
    • Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
    • Lorenzo RiccioCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
    • Stan HenderikxCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Jong Utrecht – Dordrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Dordrecht →
    Jong Utrecht →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.2%
    0–15.3%
    0–25.2%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–04.6%
    1–19.4%
    1–28.6%
    1–35.3%
    1–4+3.8%
    2
    2–04.0%
    2–17.5%
    2–27.0%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+3.1%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–14.1%
    3–23.9%
    3–32.4%
    3–4+1.7%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+1.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-19%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-35%
    Expected goals
    1,65–1,87
    Both teams to score
    69%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @2.45
    Over 2,568%
    @1.50EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Dordrecht or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Dordrecht or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Ayoub Ouarghi to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score69%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Massien Ghaddari to score28%
    • Lorenzo Riccio to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Dordrecht40% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
    • Over 2.568% probability@1.50LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
    • Over 3.547% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jong UtrechtX2 · Dordrecht
    LeoVegas2.303.60
    EV+ 7%
    2.70

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    43 %38 %

    2.25 → 2.30

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.60

    2+2 %
    37 %32 %

    2.65 → 2.70

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jong Utrecht 3Draw 0Dordrecht 1
    Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Utrecht U21 have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong Utrecht
    Dordrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jong Utrecht (19–31)
    Dordrecht (16–31)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong Utrecht
    Jamie Schuldes: 175 passningar, xT 0.33SchuldesWessel Kooy: 174 passningar, xT 0.21KooyViggo Plantinga: 151 passningar, xT 0.14PlantingaYousri Sbai: 141 passningar, xT 0.36SbaiPer Kloosterboer: 99 passningar, xT 0.02KloosterboerMassien Ghaddari: 98 passningar, xT 0.58GhaddariMees Eppink: 86 passningar, xT 0.22EppinkDriss Laaouina: 83 passningar, xT 0.31LaaouinaJaygo van Ommeren: 76 passningar, xT 0.09OmmerenBjorn Menzo: 70 passningar, xT 0.73MenzoFerdinand Pohl: 64 passningar, xT 0.15Pohl
    Dordrecht
    Stan Henderikx: 273 passningar, xT 0.2HenderikxJaden Pinas: 238 passningar, xT 0.22PinasLorenzo Riccio: 176 passningar, xT 0.24RiccioBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 141 passningar, xT 0.23MpanzuJurre Van Aken: 140 passningar, xT 0.12AkenTim Coremans: 130 passningar, xT 0.42CoremansSenne Vugts: 97 passningar, xT 0.05VugtsMartin Vetkal: 84 passningar, xT 0.24VetkalAyoub Ouarghi: 68 passningar, xT 0.48OuarghiNicolás David Rossi Marachlian: 46 passningar, xT 0.16MarachlianJoey de Bie: 45 passningar, xT -0.1Bie
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong Utrecht
    Jamie Schuldes: 175 passningar, xT 0.33SchuldesWessel Kooy: 174 passningar, xT 0.21KooyViggo Plantinga: 151 passningar, xT 0.14PlantingaYousri Sbai: 141 passningar, xT 0.36SbaiPer Kloosterboer: 99 passningar, xT 0.02KloosterboerMassien Ghaddari: 98 passningar, xT 0.58GhaddariMees Eppink: 86 passningar, xT 0.22EppinkDriss Laaouina: 83 passningar, xT 0.31LaaouinaJaygo van Ommeren: 76 passningar, xT 0.09OmmerenBjorn Menzo: 70 passningar, xT 0.73MenzoFerdinand Pohl: 64 passningar, xT 0.15Pohl
    Dordrecht
    Stan Henderikx: 273 passningar, xT 0.2HenderikxJaden Pinas: 238 passningar, xT 0.22PinasLorenzo Riccio: 176 passningar, xT 0.24RiccioBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 141 passningar, xT 0.23MpanzuJurre Van Aken: 140 passningar, xT 0.12AkenTim Coremans: 130 passningar, xT 0.42CoremansSenne Vugts: 97 passningar, xT 0.05VugtsMartin Vetkal: 84 passningar, xT 0.24VetkalAyoub Ouarghi: 68 passningar, xT 0.48OuarghiNicolás David Rossi Marachlian: 46 passningar, xT 0.16MarachlianJoey de Bie: 45 passningar, xT -0.1Bie

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong UtrechtDordrecht
    Points711
    xPoints1313.2
    xG per match1.21.1
    xGA per match21.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.230.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.33
    Playing styleJong UtrechtDordrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.280.31
    Field tilt0.410.52
    xT per match0.970.99
    xTA per match1.31
    Won balls, offensive half2623
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.29
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against1712
    Pass completion %0.70.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.7
    Passes per match284357
    Passes against per match364314
    Switches of play per match23.124.1
    Long balls per match3342
    Set piecesJong UtrechtDordrecht
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match5.25.2
    Corners against per match5.83.6
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.49
    OtherJong UtrechtDordrecht
    Throw-in control0.780.77
    The goalkeepersKevin Gadellaa (Jong Utrecht)Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
    Saves2426
    Save %60%61%
    xG prevented41%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jong Utrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dordrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht according to our model?

    The model gives Dordrecht a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Utrecht 34%, draw 26%, Dordrecht 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 69% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?

    The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Jong Utrecht and 1.87 for Dordrecht, 3.52 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Jong Utrecht or draw (1X) 60%, Dordrecht or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.