01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Eerste Divisie7°12 km/h
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MVV MaastrichtPossession controlvs
VVV-VenloPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · VVV-Venlo (41%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.75 (+9 %)
MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo · Eerste Divisie
1 · MVV Maastricht 34%X 26%41% VVV-Venlo · 2
34%
26%
41%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo (Eerste Divisie, Saturday, 31 October 2026): MVV Maastricht win 34%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo win 41%. Expected goals (xG): MVV Maastricht 1.44, VVV-Venlo 1.66. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: MVV Maastricht or draw 59%, VVV-Venlo or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: MVV Maastricht – VVV-Venlo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
VVV-Venlo’s 13-match league scoring run meets MVV Maastricht’s 1.44 expected goals, while the visitors are projected at 1.66. The key question is whether the hosts can turn their possession control into enough clear chances to disrupt VVV’s stronger attacking baseline. Both teams want the ball, yet VVV have been more productive when they get it.
The season numbers point away from Maastricht despite home advantage. VVV hold 25 points to 17, with xPoints of 18.9 against 12.8, and their 1.7 xG per match comfortably exceeds the hosts’ 1.0. Both defences concede 1.5 xGA per game, so this looks less like a shutdown contest and more like a question of whose attack can make possession count. The model gives VVV a 41% win probability, ahead of MVV’s 34%, with the draw at 26%.
History tells a different story, but it should not be confused with current form. MVV have dominated this fixture since 2023, taking 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 6 meetings. That record matters as a local matchup pattern, particularly for a side comfortable controlling tempo at home. Still, VVV’s superior points, xPoints and xG profile carry more weight for this particular night than those previous derbies.
The most likely exact score is 1-1 at 11%, although the broader result lean is towards VVV avoiding defeat and having the better chance of winning. A 1-2 away result is the next relevant scoreline at 9%, and the 60% model probability for over 2.5 goals edges the total towards over; both teams to score is also supported at 62%. The sharper price angle is MVV to win at 3.2 with Betsafe or Nordicbet: the model’s 34% home probability rates that as a 9% EV+ assessment, even with VVV as the overall match lean.
MVV MaastrichtForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #21xGA #9xT #21xP/match #21Points #9
Key players
- Finn Jesper DickeCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
- Sil van der WegenRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
- Elias Sierra-CappellettiCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
VVV-VenloForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #12xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
- Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.29
- Leon Gino SchmidtFxG 0.63 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: MVV Maastricht – VVV-Venlo
Predicted score matrix
VVV-Venlo →
MVV Maastricht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–17.2%
0–26.2%
0–33.4%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.1%
1–28.9%
1–35.0%
1–4+3.0%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.7%
2–26.4%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,44–1,66
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.70EV+1%
Over 2,560%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Andreas Verstraeten to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Andreas Verstraeten to score21%
- Elias Sierra-Cappelletti to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.562% probability@1.75LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · MVV Maastricht34% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · MVV Maastricht34% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · MVV Maastricht | X | 2 · VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 3.15 | 3.75 | 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:36
Odds movement
10 %
32 %27 %
3.15 → 3.15
X+1 %
27 %22 %
3.70 → 3.75
2-1 %
48 %43 %
2.00 → 1.98
Over 2,5-5 %
67 %62 %
1.47 → 1.40
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesMVV Maastricht 4Draw 1VVV-Venlo 1
Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- MVV Maastricht dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- VVV Venlo have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
MVV Maastricht
VVV-Venlo
MVV Maastricht (16–27)
VVV-Venlo (34–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
MVV Maastricht
VVV-Venlo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
MVV Maastricht
VVV-Venlo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | MVV Maastricht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 25 |
| xPoints | 12.8 | 18.9 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | MVV Maastricht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 373 | 320 |
| Passes against per match | 310 | 347 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.8 | 26.4 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 40 |
| Set pieces | MVV Maastricht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.75 |
| Other | MVV Maastricht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht) | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 37 |
| Save % | 59% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – De Graafschap30 October 2026
- Roda – Jong AZ30 October 2026
- Waalwijk – Almere City30 October 2026
- Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- Emmen – Den Bosch1 November 2026
- Heracles Almelo – TOP Oss2 November 2026
- Jong Ajax – Vitesse2 November 2026
- Jong Utrecht – Dordrecht2 November 2026
- Jong PSV – NAC Breda2 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo according to our model?
The model gives VVV-Venlo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: MVV Maastricht 34%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo?
The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for MVV Maastricht and 1.66 for VVV-Venlo, 3.10 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
MVV Maastricht or draw (1X) 59%, VVV-Venlo or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.