Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss Prediction: Home win 77% (2 Nov 2026)

Eerste Divisie2 November 20267°9 km/h

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Heracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses

TOP OssLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (77%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 8.40 (+15 %)

1 · Heracles Almelo 77%X 14%9% TOP Oss · 2

77%

14%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss (Eerste Divisie, Monday, 2 November 2026): Heracles Almelo win 77%, draw 14%, TOP Oss win 9%. Expected goals (xG): Heracles Almelo 2.69, TOP Oss 0.81. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Heracles Almelo or draw 91%, TOP Oss or draw 23%. Prediction updated Sunday, 25 October 2026.

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Analysis: Heracles Almelo – TOP Oss

Oscar Nilsson · 25 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Heracles Almelo's recent form makes them the clear favorites against TOP Oss, boasting an unbeaten streak over their last five league matches. The hosts' style, characterized by counter-attacks and crosses, directly targets the defensive vulnerabilities of the visitors, who prefer a low-block and direct play. With Heracles sitting on 29 points compared to TOP Oss's 13, the home team has both the momentum and statistical edge.

The numbers firmly back Heracles, with expected goals of 2.69 compared to TOP Oss's 0.81. This suggests a dominant performance from the hosts, aligning with the model's most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 3-0. The visitors' defense, conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per match, is likely to struggle against Heracles' potent attack, which averages 2.6 xG per match. Although TOP Oss could find the net, given the 52% probability of both teams scoring, their chances of a win are slim at just 9%.

Goals are expected to flow, with a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals. Yet, the real value lies in the under 3.5 goals market. With LeoVegas offering odds of 1.952 and the model estimating a 54% chance, there's a 5% edge to exploit. This suggests that while Heracles should control the game, an explosive goal deluge may not materialize.

In essence, Heracles should comfortably dispatch TOP Oss, with a 2-0 or 3-0 result the most likely outcomes. The under 3.5 goals bet presents the sharpest angle, offering a calculated opportunity against an overconfident market.

Heracles Almelo

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Damon MiraniCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
David Vicente RoblesRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24

TOP Oss

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #16xT #13xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
Delano VianelloCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – TOP Oss

Predicted score matrix

TOP Oss →

Heracles Almelo →

0–03.2%

0–12.3%

0–21.0%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.0%

1–16.8%

1–22.7%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.0%

2–18.8%

2–23.6%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.8%

3–17.9%

3–23.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–012.6%

4+–110.2%

4+–24.1%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.3-010%
3.2-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,69–0,81

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@3.55EV+14%

Over 2,568%

@1.27

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heracles Almelo to win77%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heracles Almelo to win77%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Jean-Paul N'djoli to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Jean-Paul N'djoli to score40%
Marcelencio Esajas to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw14% probability@8.40BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
X · Draw14% probability@8.40NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
Under 2.532% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heracles Almelo	X	2 · TOP Oss
Betsafe	1.14	EV+ 15% 8.40	EV+ 11% 12.50
LeoVegas	1.17	7.00	11.00
Nordicbet	1.14	EV+ 15% 8.40	EV+ 11% 12.50

Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

84 %74 %

1.19 → 1.17

X+8 %

18 %8 %

6.50 → 7.00

2+16 %

13 %3 %

9.50 → 11.00

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Heracles Almelo are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heracles Almelo

TOP Oss

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heracles Almelo (37–14)

TOP Oss (19–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

TOP Oss

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

TOP Oss

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heracles Almelo	TOP Oss
Points	29	13
xPoints	25.2	17.6
xG per match	2.6	1.4
xGA per match	0.91	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.22

Playing style	Heracles Almelo	TOP Oss
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.69	0.34
xT per match	1.7	1.1
xTA per match	0.84	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	35	22
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.25
Entries into the box per match	17	11
Entries into the box against	8	17
Pass completion %	0.72	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.61
Passes per match	328	244
Passes against per match	268	428
Switches of play per match	25.3	22.8
Long balls per match	39	40

Set pieces	Heracles Almelo	TOP Oss
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.05
Corners per match	8.1	4.7
Corners against per match	3.6	6.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.62

Other	Heracles Almelo	TOP Oss
Throw-in control	0.76	0.71

The goalkeepers	Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)	Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)
Saves	24	48
Save %	63%	73%
xG prevented	38%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heracles Almelo

Fixtures, form & tips

TOP Oss

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss according to our model?

The model gives Heracles Almelo a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 77%, draw 14%, TOP Oss 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss?

The model expects 2.69 goals (xG) for Heracles Almelo and 0.81 for TOP Oss, 3.49 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Heracles Almelo or draw (1X) 91%, TOP Oss or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 86%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.