EredivisieAFAS Stadion, Alkmaar18°30 km/h

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    AZ AlkmaarAZ AlkmaarPossession & high press
    vs
    TelstarTelstarLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · AZ Alkmaar (84%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.25 (+19 %)

    AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar · Eredivisie

    1 · AZ Alkmaar 84%X 10%5% Telstar · 2

    Analysis: AZ Alkmaar – Telstar

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    AZ Alkmaar's 84% win probability sets an imposing stage for Telstar, who sit at a mere 5%. The hosts' robust form, unbeaten in their last 12 league fixtures, contrasts sharply with Telstar's struggles. The most likely scorelines, 3-0 and 2-0, both at 11%, highlight AZ's attacking prowess and Telstar's defensive vulnerabilities, underscored by an expected goals tally of 3.09 to 0.67.

    The rain, with 6.3 mm predicted, could dampen the flow of the match, but AZ's possession and high press strategy should still break through Telstar's low block. The home side has netted in 9 consecutive league games, and that momentum fails to find a counter in Telstar's current form. A small sample size of 2 head-to-head games since 2022, both AZ wins, weighs less than current stats and expected goals.

    For bettors, the 6% edge on AZ's win odds at 1.26 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out. The clear prediction is a home victory, with a 3-0 scoreline most fitting. The over 2.5 goals market at 72% leans heavily towards hitting, painting a picture of AZ dominance.

    AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
    Form WWWWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.86 · xT -0.03
    • Ro-Zangelo DaalLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.35
    • Peer KoopmeinersCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.24
    TelstarTelstar
    Form LLDLD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #15xP/match #12Points #13
    Key players
    • Nokkvi ThorissonFxG 0.04 · xT -0.02
    • Soufiane HetliCAMxG 0.54 · xT 0.04
    • Nils RossenCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: AZ Alkmaar – Telstar

    Predicted score matrix

    Telstar →
    AZ Alkmaar →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.5%
    0–11.4%
    0–20.5%
    0–30.1%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–15.0%
    1–21.6%
    1–30.4%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–011.1%
    2–17.5%
    2–22.5%
    2–30.6%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–011.4%
    3–17.7%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–019.0%
    4+–112.8%
    4+–24.3%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.3-011%
    2. 2.2-011%
    3. 3.4-09%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    3,09–0,67
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,528%
    @3.60
    Over 2,572%
    @1.29

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • AZ Alkmaar to win84%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    77%

    Fair odds

    1.29

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • AZ Alkmaar to win84%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Ro-Zangelo Daal to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Ro-Zangelo Daal to score39%
    • Abdelnour Soualhia to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Both teams to score: No53% probability@2.25Bet365EV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · AZ Alkmaar84% probability@1.27Bet365EV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · AZ Alkmaar84% probability@1.24BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AZ AlkmaarX2 · Telstar
    Bet365
    EV+ 7%
    1.27    		5.759.00
    Betsafe
    EV+ 5%
    1.24    		5.6711.45
    Betsson
    EV+ 5%
    1.24    		5.6711.45
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 5%
    1.24    		5.6711.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    1.23    		6.759.46

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 21:38

    Odds movement

    10 %
    78 %73 %

    1.23 → 1.23

    X-2 %
    17 %12 %

    6.91 → 6.75

    2-1 %
    13 %8 %

    9.54 → 9.46

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    AZ Alkmaar 2Draw 0Telstar 0
    Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
    • AZ Alkmaar have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    AZ Alkmaar
    Telstar
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    AZ Alkmaar (17–6)
    Telstar (5–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    AZ Alkmaar
    Peer Koopmeiners: 357 passningar, xT 1.21KoopmeinersWouter Goes: 290 passningar, xT 0.44GoesLewis Schouten: 257 passningar, xT 0.43SchoutenElijah Dijkstra: 227 passningar, xT -0.08DijkstraMateo Chávez García: 198 passningar, xT 1.78GarcíaRo-Zangelo Daal: 198 passningar, xT 1.47DaalDave Kwakman: 191 passningar, xT 0.11KwakmanJari De Busser: 143 passningar, xT 0.23BusserJordy Clasie: 123 passningar, xT 0.08ClasieWeslley Pinto Batista: 103 passningar, xT 0.35BatistaKees Smit: 101 passningar, xT 0.33Smit
    Telstar
    Abdelnour Soualhia: 196 passningar, xT 0.51SoualhiaMarvin Peersman: 185 passningar, xT 0.58PeersmanNils Rossen: 182 passningar, xT 0.23RossenTyrone Owusu: 172 passningar, xT 0.25OwusuRonald Koeman Jr.: 161 passningar, xT 0.51Jr.Sem Valk: 122 passningar, xT 0.12ValkJeff Hardeveld: 95 passningar, xT 0.38HardeveldGerald Alders: 87 passningar, xT 0.09AldersPatrick Brouwer: 79 passningar, xT 0.5BrouwerGabrielle Caschili: 48 passningar, xT 0.02CaschiliRui Mendes: 44 passningar, xT -0.03Mendes
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    AZ Alkmaar
    Peer Koopmeiners: 357 passningar, xT 1.21KoopmeinersWouter Goes: 290 passningar, xT 0.44GoesLewis Schouten: 257 passningar, xT 0.43SchoutenElijah Dijkstra: 227 passningar, xT -0.08DijkstraMateo Chávez García: 198 passningar, xT 1.78GarcíaRo-Zangelo Daal: 198 passningar, xT 1.47DaalDave Kwakman: 191 passningar, xT 0.11KwakmanJari De Busser: 143 passningar, xT 0.23BusserJordy Clasie: 123 passningar, xT 0.08ClasieWeslley Pinto Batista: 103 passningar, xT 0.35BatistaKees Smit: 101 passningar, xT 0.33Smit
    Telstar
    Abdelnour Soualhia: 196 passningar, xT 0.51SoualhiaMarvin Peersman: 185 passningar, xT 0.58PeersmanNils Rossen: 182 passningar, xT 0.23RossenTyrone Owusu: 172 passningar, xT 0.25OwusuRonald Koeman Jr.: 161 passningar, xT 0.51Jr.Sem Valk: 122 passningar, xT 0.12ValkJeff Hardeveld: 95 passningar, xT 0.38HardeveldGerald Alders: 87 passningar, xT 0.09AldersPatrick Brouwer: 79 passningar, xT 0.5BrouwerGabrielle Caschili: 48 passningar, xT 0.02CaschiliRui Mendes: 44 passningar, xT -0.03Mendes

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAZ AlkmaarTelstar
    Points165
    xPoints11.96.8
    xG per match2.61.1
    xGA per match12
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.560.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.21
    Playing styleAZ AlkmaarTelstar
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.810.25
    xT per match1.60.74
    xTA per match0.751.5
    Won balls, offensive half2822
    Pressing intensity0.20.28
    Pressing efficiency0.280.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.21
    Entries into the box per match2111
    Entries into the box against819
    Pass completion %0.820.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.68
    Passes per match470276
    Passes against per match303436
    Switches of play per match23.220.1
    Long balls per match2834
    Set piecesAZ AlkmaarTelstar
    xG from free kicks0.010.11
    Corners per match94.4
    Corners against per match3.56.7
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.570.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.380.54
    OtherAZ AlkmaarTelstar
    Throw-in control0.760.72
    The goalkeepersJari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar)Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar)
    Saves1028
    Save %63%72%
    xG prevented35%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    AZ Alkmaar
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Telstar
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar according to our model?

    The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 84% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AZ Alkmaar 84%, draw 10%, Telstar 5%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 3-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.