EredivisieGoffertstadion, Nijmegen17°11,8 mm23 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    NECNECPossession & high press
    vs
    Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead EaglesPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · NEC (53%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 8.00 (+20 %)

    NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie

    1 · NEC 53%X 26%21% Go Ahead Eagles · 2

    Analysis: NEC – Go Ahead Eagles

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The recent encounters between NEC and Go Ahead Eagles tell a story of narrow margins, with Go Ahead holding a slight edge by winning two of their last four clashes since 2022. However, this small sample size should be weighted less heavily than current form, where the visitors have a notable scoring streak, finding the net in their past nine league matches. Despite this, NEC's home-ground advantage and slightly stronger model probability suggest they are favored to take the three points.

    NEC's playing style, characterized by possession play and a high press, mirrors that of Go Ahead Eagles. This shared approach might lead to a tactical stand-off, though both sides are likely to create chances, as reflected in their expected goals — NEC at 1.93 and the Eagles at 1.42. The model's most probable scorelines, such as 1-1 and 2-1, indicate a competitive match with NEC having a slight edge.

    The scoring potential is underscored by the fact that 65% of simulations anticipate more than 2.5 goals, aligning with historical expectations that both teams will find the back of the net. However, the expected rain of 4.8 mm could temper the attacking verve, potentially suppressing goal numbers despite the statistical lean towards a high-scoring game.

    For bettors, the standout angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market, defying the anticipated goal glut. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.27, the model identifies a 14% value edge here. The likelihood of a tighter contest in wet conditions could make this an insightful play, especially if the weather impacts the flow and finish of the game.

    NECNEC
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #3xP/match #11Points #10
    Key players
    • Brayann PereiraRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
    • Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
    • Dušan TadićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
    Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles
    Form DWLWD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #8xP/match #7Points #5
    Key players
    • Mathis SurayLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.28
    • Søren Østergaard TengstedtRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
    • Victor Kaj EdvardsenCAMxG 0.32 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: NEC – Go Ahead Eagles

    Predicted score matrix

    Go Ahead Eagles →
    NEC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–14.7%
    0–23.5%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–06.5%
    1–19.9%
    1–26.8%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–16.0%
    3–24.2%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–14.5%
    4+–23.2%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,93–1,42
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @3.40EV+19%
    Over 2,565%
    @1.33

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • NEC to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.34

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • NEC to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score26%
    • Joris Kramer to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.515% probability@8.00Bet365EV+20%reference odds
    • Under 2.535% probability@3.40Bet365EV+19%reference odds
    • Under 3.557% probability@1.95PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NECX2 · Go Ahead Eagles
    Bet3651.73
    EV+ 10%
    4.20    		4.10
    Betsafe1.88
    EV+ 5%
    3.99    		3.50
    Betsson1.88
    EV+ 5%
    3.99    		3.50
    Nordicbet1.88
    EV+ 5%
    3.99    		3.50
    Pinnacle1.87
    EV+ 10%
    4.21    		3.51

    Odds updated 18 Sept, 19:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Go Ahead Eagles win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 4.37 to 3.51 (−20%).

    1+9 %
    56 %46 %

    1.71 → 1.87

    X+2 %
    29 %19 %

    4.11 → 4.21

    2-20 %
    30 %20 %

    4.37 → 3.51

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    NEC 1Draw 1Go Ahead Eagles 2
    Goals: 5–10 (⌀ 3,8)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Go Ahead Eagles have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    NEC
    Go Ahead Eagles
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    NEC (11–12)
    Go Ahead Eagles (15–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    NEC
    Tobias Storm: 284 passningar, xT 0.46StormDarko Nejašmić: 142 passningar, xT 0.7NejašmićTjaronn Chery: 128 passningar, xT 0.47CheryJamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga: 126 passningar, xT 0.13AlvarengaGonzalo Alejandro Crettaz: 120 passningar, xT 0.26CrettazGabriel Costa Brás: 115 passningar, xT 0.41BrásNoé Lebreton: 112 passningar, xT -0.16LebretonAlmugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar: 100 passningar, xT 0.3KabarDušan Tadić: 96 passningar, xT 0.15TadićBram Nuytinck: 91 passningar, xT 0.06NuytinckAdam Tahaui: 90 passningar, xT 0.65Tahaui
    Go Ahead Eagles
    Joris Kramer: 295 passningar, xT 0.25KramerJulius Dirksen: 191 passningar, xT 0.15DirksenHenricus Gerardus Hubertus Maria Linthorst: 188 passningar, xT 0.64LinthorstAlfons Sampsted: 172 passningar, xT 0.17SampstedMelle Meulensteen: 163 passningar, xT 0.1MeulensteenChristian Kjetil Haug: 149 passningar, xT 0.12HaugDean James: 142 passningar, xT 0.56JamesMathis Suray: 131 passningar, xT 1.11SurayVictor Kaj Edvardsen: 107 passningar, xT 0.48EdvardsenSøren Østergaard Tengstedt: 105 passningar, xT 0.14TengstedtGiovanni van Zwam: 62 passningar, xT 0.08Zwam
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    NEC
    Tobias Storm: 284 passningar, xT 0.46StormDarko Nejašmić: 142 passningar, xT 0.7NejašmićTjaronn Chery: 128 passningar, xT 0.47CheryJamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga: 126 passningar, xT 0.13AlvarengaGonzalo Alejandro Crettaz: 120 passningar, xT 0.26CrettazGabriel Costa Brás: 115 passningar, xT 0.41BrásNoé Lebreton: 112 passningar, xT -0.16LebretonAlmugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar: 100 passningar, xT 0.3KabarDušan Tadić: 96 passningar, xT 0.15TadićBram Nuytinck: 91 passningar, xT 0.06NuytinckAdam Tahaui: 90 passningar, xT 0.65Tahaui
    Go Ahead Eagles
    Joris Kramer: 295 passningar, xT 0.25KramerJulius Dirksen: 191 passningar, xT 0.15DirksenHenricus Gerardus Hubertus Maria Linthorst: 188 passningar, xT 0.64LinthorstAlfons Sampsted: 172 passningar, xT 0.17SampstedMelle Meulensteen: 163 passningar, xT 0.1MeulensteenChristian Kjetil Haug: 149 passningar, xT 0.12HaugDean James: 142 passningar, xT 0.56JamesMathis Suray: 131 passningar, xT 1.11SurayVictor Kaj Edvardsen: 107 passningar, xT 0.48EdvardsenSøren Østergaard Tengstedt: 105 passningar, xT 0.14TengstedtGiovanni van Zwam: 62 passningar, xT 0.08Zwam

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNECGo Ahead Eagles
    Points711
    xPoints6.98.5
    xG per match1.71.7
    xGA per match1.41.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.29
    Playing styleNECGo Ahead Eagles
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.780.52
    xT per match1.81.1
    xTA per match0.851.1
    Won balls, offensive half3125
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.390.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.24
    Entries into the box per match2116
    Entries into the box against1113
    Pass completion %0.770.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match431418
    Passes against per match208365
    Switches of play per match1834.8
    Long balls per match2641
    Set piecesNECGo Ahead Eagles
    xG from free kicks0.010.13
    Corners per match55.8
    Corners against per match3.14.2
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.720.62
    OtherNECGo Ahead Eagles
    Throw-in control0.720.81
    The goalkeepersGonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)Christian Kjetil Haug (Go Ahead Eagles)
    Saves813
    Save %50%54%
    xG prevented16%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    NEC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Go Ahead Eagles
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles according to our model?

    The model gives NEC a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 53%, draw 26%, Go Ahead Eagles 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    CambuurCambuur
    0–4
    ExcelsiorExcelsior
    1 48%X 24%2 28%
    The model missed the outcome
    PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
    2–2
    Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
    1 80%X 13%2 7%
    The model missed the outcome
    AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
    2–0
    ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
    1 51%X 23%2 26%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.