EredivisieDe Kuip, Rotterdam18°4,7 mm26 km/h

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    FeyenoordFeyenoordPossession & high press
    vs
    UtrechtUtrechtCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Feyenoord (71%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 6.22 (+21 %)

    Feyenoord vs Utrecht · Eredivisie

    1 · Feyenoord 71%X 19%10% Utrecht · 2

    Analysis: Feyenoord – Utrecht

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The tension is palpable as Feyenoord, solid favorites with a 71% win probability, welcome an underwhelming FC Utrecht side. The hosts have been in imperious form, boasting an unbeaten streak of 15 league matches while consistently finding the net. Their expected goals of 2.94 for this match suggest they are likely to create numerous chances against Utrecht, whose defensive vulnerabilities are highlighted by an xGA of 1.8 per match.

    The forecast of rain, combined with Feyenoord's high-pressing style, might stifle Utrecht's counter-attacking ambitions. This weather factor is already considered in the model’s metrics, indicating that the hosts' dominance on the ball could restrict Utrecht’s scoring opportunities, reflected in their expected goals of just 0.86.

    Despite the visitors managing to score in their last 11 league outings, the odds are stacked against them. With Feyenoord having a penchant for scoring at home and an expected 73% chance of over 2.5 goals, a tidy 2-0 victory seems the most probable outcome. The model’s second-favorite scoreline of 3-0 isn't far off, further underscoring the likelihood of a low-scoring affair for Utrecht.

    There's a glimmer of value in the markets, though. The draw at odds of 5.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers a 9% edge over the model's assessment. Yet, with Feyenoord's relentless form and Utrecht's struggles, betting on a stalemate seems more hopeful than wise.

    In conclusion, expect the home side to exert control, leveraging their possession-based approach and recent form. While the draw offers tempting value at long odds, backing Feyenoord to win, likely without conceding, aligns with the prevailing trends and statistics.

    FeyenoordFeyenoord
    Form DWDWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #2xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.40
    • Ayase UedaFxG 1.00 · xT 0.09
    • Luciano ValenteLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.24
    UtrechtUtrecht
    Form LDLLW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #14xP/match #8Points #15
    Key players
    • Artem StepanovFxG 0.54 · xT 0.03
    • Dani de WitFxG 0.17 · xT 0.01
    • Nikolas PanagiotouCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18

    Match prediction: Feyenoord – Utrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Utrecht →
    Feyenoord →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.4%
    0–11.8%
    0–20.8%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–06.4%
    1–15.8%
    1–22.4%
    1–30.7%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–18.3%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–09.4%
    3–18.2%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–014.3%
    4+–112.4%
    4+–25.3%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.3-09%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.4-07%
    Expected goals
    2,94–0,86
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,527%
    @3.40
    Over 2,573%
    @1.33

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Feyenoord to win71%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    73%

    Fair odds

    1.38

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Feyenoord to win71%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Luciano Valente to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Luciano Valente to score38%
    • Guus Offerhaus to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw19% probability@6.22PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
    • X · Draw19% probability@6.00Betfair ExchangeEV+16%reference odds
    • X · Draw19% probability@5.60BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FeyenoordX2 · Utrecht
    Bet3651.30
    EV+ 7%
    5.50    		8.00
    Betfair Exchange1.28
    EV+ 16%
    6.00    		9.00
    Betsafe1.27
    EV+ 9%
    5.60    		9.45
    Betsson1.27
    EV+ 9%
    5.60    		9.45
    Nordicbet1.27
    EV+ 9%
    5.60    		9.45
    Pinnacle1.26
    EV+ 21%
    6.22    		8.65

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 00:22

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    76 %71 %

    1.30 → 1.26

    X+5 %
    18 %13 %

    5.92 → 6.22

    2+8 %
    14 %9 %

    8.04 → 8.65

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Feyenoord 3Draw 0Utrecht 1
    Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches.
    • Feyenoord have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    • FC Utrecht have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    • Feyenoord win 61% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Feyenoord
    Utrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Feyenoord (20–7)
    Utrecht (9–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Feyenoord
    Mika Mármol Medina: 302 passningar, xT 1.15MedinaTsuyoshi Watanabe: 270 passningar, xT 0.11WatanabeGjivai Zechiel: 204 passningar, xT 0.75ZechielLuciano Valente: 199 passningar, xT 0.58ValenteGivairo Read: 192 passningar, xT 0.89ReadCharles Vanhoutte: 186 passningar, xT 0.17VanhoutteJeremiah Israël St. Juste: 182 passningar, xT 0.1JusteOussama Targhalline: 160 passningar, xT 1.1TarghallineTjark Ernst: 130 passningar, xT 0.18ErnstAnis Hadj Moussa: 118 passningar, xT 1.42MoussaJavier López Carballo: 62 passningar, xT 0.21Carballo
    Utrecht
    Arthur Zagré: 160 passningar, xT 0.12ZagréSiebe Horemans: 156 passningar, xT 0.43HoremansDave Johannes Andreas van den Berg: 147 passningar, xT 0.2BergMatisse Didden: 135 passningar, xT 0.03DiddenVasilis Cornelius Barkas: 111 passningar, xT -0.01BarkasNiklas Brøndsted Vesterlund Nielsen: 90 passningar, xT 0.57NielsenNikolas Panagiotou: 90 passningar, xT 0.3PanagiotouDani de Wit: 84 passningar, xT 0WitGuus Offerhaus: 81 passningar, xT 0.04OfferhausYoann Cathline: 70 passningar, xT 0.43CathlineÁngel Alarcón Galiot: 67 passningar, xT 0.7Galiot
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Feyenoord
    Mika Mármol Medina: 302 passningar, xT 1.15MedinaTsuyoshi Watanabe: 270 passningar, xT 0.11WatanabeGjivai Zechiel: 204 passningar, xT 0.75ZechielLuciano Valente: 199 passningar, xT 0.58ValenteGivairo Read: 192 passningar, xT 0.89ReadCharles Vanhoutte: 186 passningar, xT 0.17VanhoutteJeremiah Israël St. Juste: 182 passningar, xT 0.1JusteOussama Targhalline: 160 passningar, xT 1.1TarghallineTjark Ernst: 130 passningar, xT 0.18ErnstAnis Hadj Moussa: 118 passningar, xT 1.42MoussaJavier López Carballo: 62 passningar, xT 0.21Carballo
    Utrecht
    Arthur Zagré: 160 passningar, xT 0.12ZagréSiebe Horemans: 156 passningar, xT 0.43HoremansDave Johannes Andreas van den Berg: 147 passningar, xT 0.2BergMatisse Didden: 135 passningar, xT 0.03DiddenVasilis Cornelius Barkas: 111 passningar, xT -0.01BarkasNiklas Brøndsted Vesterlund Nielsen: 90 passningar, xT 0.57NielsenNikolas Panagiotou: 90 passningar, xT 0.3PanagiotouDani de Wit: 84 passningar, xT 0WitGuus Offerhaus: 81 passningar, xT 0.04OfferhausYoann Cathline: 70 passningar, xT 0.43CathlineÁngel Alarcón Galiot: 67 passningar, xT 0.7Galiot

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFeyenoordUtrecht
    Points144
    xPoints12.17.4
    xG per match2.61.3
    xGA per match0.861.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.43
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.070.2
    Playing styleFeyenoordUtrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.320.29
    Field tilt0.720.3
    xT per match1.90.91
    xTA per match0.831.1
    Won balls, offensive half2319
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.320.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.22
    Entries into the box per match2211
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.820.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.72
    Passes per match449297
    Passes against per match320412
    Switches of play per match19.419.1
    Long balls per match2830
    Set piecesFeyenoordUtrecht
    xG from free kicks0.040.06
    Corners per match6.13.1
    Corners against per match3.86.8
    xG per corner0.030.07
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.69
    OtherFeyenoordUtrecht
    Throw-in control0.720.77
    The goalkeepersTjark Ernst (Feyenoord)Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht)
    Saves1220
    Save %63%54%
    xG prevented36%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Feyenoord
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Utrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Feyenoord vs Utrecht according to our model?

    The model gives Feyenoord a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feyenoord 71%, draw 19%, Utrecht 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.