01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
EredivisieAFAS Stadion, Alkmaar12°10,8 mm45 km/h
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AZ AlkmaarPossession & high pressvs
TwentePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · AZ Alkmaar (44%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 23.00 (+41 %)
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente · Eredivisie
1 · AZ Alkmaar 44%X 25%31% Twente · 2
44%
25%
31%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente (Eredivisie, Sunday, 25 October 2026): AZ Alkmaar win 44%, draw 25%, Twente win 31%. Expected goals (xG): AZ Alkmaar 1.54, Twente 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: AZ Alkmaar or draw 69%, Twente or draw 56%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: AZ Alkmaar – Twente
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
AZ Alkmaar and Twente are set for a clash that promises to be a tactical battle, defined by possession and pressing. With both teams favoring high-intensity styles, the midfield is likely to become a congested battlefield. Despite their shared approach, AZ holds the upper hand in historical encounters, boasting three wins in the last five meetings, although this is a small sample and less significant than current form.
The numbers lean slightly towards AZ, who are given a 44% chance of winning by the model. However, Twente's ability to find the net in their last eight league matches cannot be ignored. The expected goals tell a story of near parity, with AZ at 1.54 and Twente at 1.31. Both teams to score is priced at 58%, suggesting that while goals are probable, they might not come easily. The expected rainfall might further dampen the scoring potential, yet this is already accounted for in the model's calculations.
Historically, this fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting, hinting at a higher-scoring affair, but the model sees the most likely scorelines as 1-1 (12%), followed by 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%) for AZ. While over 2.5 goals is pegged at 54%, the tight margins in both the model's expected goals and the weather conditions suggest scoring might be more constrained than history would indicate.
For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals bet emerges as an intriguing option. Priced at 2.75 with Betsafe, the model rates this a 46% chance, offering a 26% edge. While not a conservative choice, it's a calculated risk in a match where tension and tactical discipline might suppress the scoreboard more than anticipated.
AZ AlkmaarForm WDWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #5xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Peer KoopmeinersCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.25
- Wouter GoesCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.77 · xT -0.02
TwenteForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Max BrunsCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
- Younes Taha El IdrissiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.44
- Bart van RooijRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.44
Match prediction: AZ Alkmaar – Twente
Predicted score matrix
Twente →
AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–17.2%
0–25.0%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.0%
1–27.7%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.0%
2–25.9%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.6%
3–23.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,54–1,31
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.75EV+26%
Over 2,554%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Calvin Stengs to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Wout François Maria Weghorst to score28%
- Peer Koopmeiners to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.56% probability@23.00BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
- Under 0.56% probability@23.00NordicbetEV+41%reference odds
- Under 2.546% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · AZ Alkmaar | X | 2 · Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.81 | 2.93 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.81 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.90 | 3.01 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:18
Odds movement
1-1 %
47 %42 %
2.16 → 2.14
X+2 %
27 %22 %
3.81 → 3.90
20 %
34 %29 %
3.02 → 3.01
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesAZ Alkmaar 3Draw 1Twente 1
Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
- Twente Enschede FC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
AZ Alkmaar (20–10)
Twente (17–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
The teams in numbers
| Performance | AZ Alkmaar | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 17 |
| xPoints | 15.9 | 17.1 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | AZ Alkmaar | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 0.52 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 467 | 481 |
| Passes against per match | 291 | 321 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 36.9 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 39 |
| Set pieces | AZ Alkmaar | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| Other | AZ Alkmaar | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar) | Lars Unnerstall (Twente) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 16 |
| Save % | 63% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins AZ Alkmaar vs Twente according to our model?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AZ Alkmaar 44%, draw 25%, Twente 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for AZ Alkmaar and 1.31 for Twente, 2.85 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X) 69%, Twente or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.