Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Prediction: Away win 67% (25 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie25 October 2026Het Kasteel, Rotterdam12°14,4 mm46 km/h

Läs på svenska

Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crosses

AjaxPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Ajax (67%)Best value by the model: 1 · Sparta Rotterdam @ 6.31 (+1 %)

1 · Sparta Rotterdam 16%X 17%67% Ajax · 2

16%

17%

67%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax (Eredivisie, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sparta Rotterdam win 16%, draw 17%, Ajax win 67%. Expected goals (xG): Sparta Rotterdam 1.20, Ajax 2.59. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: Sparta Rotterdam or draw 33%, Ajax or draw 84%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Ajax's offensive prowess shines through even before kickoff, evidenced by their streak of scoring in 11 consecutive league matches. This attacking momentum is a significant factor as they face Sparta Rotterdam, with Ajax holding a historical dominance over the fixture. With 5 wins and 3 draws in their last 8 meetings since 2022, Ajax's grip is evident, yet it's the expected goals that truly underline the visitors' superiority: 2.59 compared to Sparta's 1.20.

The hosts, known for their counter-attacking style, might find themselves pinned back by Ajax's high press and possession-based approach. Despite Sparta's penchant for disrupting with crosses, Ajax's 1.2 expected goals against per match suggest a resilient defense. The home side must capitalize on any opportunity, especially given the expected 14.4 mm of rain that could muddle Ajax's slick passing game and level the playing field slightly.

Market odds present an intriguing value proposition. Given Sparta's 16% win probability in the model, odds of 6.31 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a slight edge. While slight, it acknowledges Sparta's potential to spring a surprise, albeit against the statistical tide. However, Ajax's form — unbeaten in their last 5 league matches — underlines their status as rightful favorites.

In terms of goal expectations, the match leans heavily towards a high-scoring affair, with a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals. Moreover, there's a 65% chance that both teams will find the net. Given these statistics and Ajax's historical edge, a 1-2 or 1-3 scoreline looks plausible. Yet, even with Ajax's clear upper hand, the betting value tilts slightly towards backing the home side at long odds due to the market's minor mispricing.

Sparta Rotterdam

Form DLLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #7xP/match #12Points #13

Key players

Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.63 · xT 0.01
Lushendry MartesRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Isaac BabadiLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.38

Ajax

Form WWDDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #1xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.35
Anton GaaeiRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.25
Davy KlaassenCDMxG 0.41 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

Sparta Rotterdam →

0–02.5%

0–15.7%

0–27.6%

0–36.6%

0–4+7.9%

1–02.5%

1–17.2%

1–29.1%

1–37.9%

1–4+9.4%

2–01.6%

2–14.2%

2–25.5%

2–34.7%

2–4+5.7%

3–00.7%

3–11.7%

3–22.2%

3–31.9%

3–4+2.3%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.1-38%
3.0-28%
4.1-17%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

1,20–2,59

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,8

18%

216%

321%

419%

5+33%

Under 2,527%

@3.14

Over 2,573%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win67%
Over 1.5 goals89%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win67%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare to score35%
Julian Baas to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sparta Rotterdam16% probability@6.31BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Sparta Rotterdam16% probability@6.31NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Rotterdam	X	2 · Ajax
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 6.31	4.76	1.43
LeoVegas	6.25	5.20	1.44
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 6.31	4.76	1.43
Pinnacle	6.08	5.20	1.42

Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:18

Odds movement

1+11 %

19 %14 %

5.48 → 6.08

X+6 %

21 %16 %

4.90 → 5.20

2-4 %

67 %62 %

1.48 → 1.42

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Sparta Rotterdam 0Draw 3Ajax 5

Goals: 7–19 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Ajax dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
AFC Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
AFC Ajax have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sparta Rotterdam (16–22)

Ajax (27–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
Points	9	18
xPoints	11.3	16.5
xG per match	1.7	2.7
xGA per match	2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.2

Playing style	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.35	0.78
xT per match	1.3	1.8
xTA per match	1.3	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	20
Entries into the box against	15	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	320	523
Passes against per match	411	285
Switches of play per match	28.3	30
Long balls per match	40	34

Set pieces	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	5.7	7.1
Corners against per match	6.9	2.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.77

Other	Sparta Rotterdam	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.74	0.74

The goalkeepers	Michael Brouwer (Sparta Rotterdam)	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)
Saves	22	22
Save %	61%	67%
xG prevented	49%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sparta Rotterdam

Fixtures, form & tips

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 16%, draw 17%, Ajax 67%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.59 for Ajax, 3.79 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X) 33%, Ajax or draw (X2) 84% and no draw (12) 83%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.