01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Utrecht to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
EredivisieStadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht11°18,8 mm41 km/h
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UtrechtCounter-attacks & crossesvs
PEC ZwolleLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Utrecht (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.30 (+3 %)
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
1 · Utrecht 57%X 24%18% PEC Zwolle · 2
57%
24%
18%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Utrecht win 57%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Utrecht 1.99, PEC Zwolle 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Utrecht or draw 82%, PEC Zwolle or draw 43%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Utrecht – PEC Zwolle
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The critical number here is 3.0 — the average goals per meeting between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle since 2022, suggesting a history of lively encounters. However, Utrecht's recent form and expected goals indicate a more controlled approach may be in play. Hosting with a 57% win probability, Utrecht’s counter-attack strategy matches up well against Zwolle's low defensive line, offering the home side an edge reflected in both xPoints and head-to-head results.
Despite the historical average of 3.0 goals per match, the weather forecast of 18.8 mm of rain could dampen attacking opportunities, aligning with the model’s under 2.5 goals probability at 40%. This emphasizes Utrecht's expected 1.99 goals against Zwolle’s 1.10 in a game that might lean towards defense over flair. The expected scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, underline a tight contest, with a slight edge towards Utrecht.
The standout betting angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market. LeoVegas offers odds of 2.6, presenting a 5% edge based on the model's 40% probability. Given the anticipated weather conditions, this offers a sharp opportunity, considering the balance of past goal averages and current defensive inclinations.
UtrechtForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #17xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Artem StepanovFxG 0.62 · xT 0.03
- Siebe HoremansCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Ángel Alarcón GaliotRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.16
PEC ZwolleForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #16xP/match #17Points #15
Key players
- Simon GravesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Ryan Jared ThomasCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Koen KostonsFxG 0.25 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Utrecht – PEC Zwolle
Predicted score matrix
PEC Zwolle →
Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–14.7%
0–22.8%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.7%
1–110.3%
1–25.5%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.0%
2–19.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.6%
3–23.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–04.7%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.8%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
1,99–1,10
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.44
Over 2,560%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Utrecht to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Sem van Duijn to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Sem van Duijn to score38%
- Nick Fichtinger to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Utrecht | X | 2 · PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.63 | 4.14 | 4.63 |
| LeoVegas | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.63 | 4.14 | 4.63 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | EV+ 3% 4.30 | 4.85 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
61 %56 %
1.64 → 1.66
X0 %
24 %19 %
4.30 → 4.30
2+6 %
22 %17 %
4.57 → 4.85
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesUtrecht 3Draw 2PEC Zwolle 1
Goals: 12–6 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- FC Utrecht dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
Utrecht (16–26)
PEC Zwolle (10–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 7 |
| xPoints | 11.6 | 8.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| Playing style | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 318 | 274 |
| Passes against per match | 421 | 444 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.8 | 19.8 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6.1 | 7.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| Other | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht) | Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 39 |
| Save % | 56% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle according to our model?
The model gives Utrecht a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Utrecht 57%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The model expects 1.99 goals (xG) for Utrecht and 1.10 for PEC Zwolle, 3.09 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Utrecht or draw (1X) 82%, PEC Zwolle or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.