01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
EredivisieFortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard11°18,6 mm39 km/h
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Fortuna SittardLow block & directvs
ExcelsiorLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Fortuna Sittard (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.70 (+15 %)
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior · Eredivisie
1 · Fortuna Sittard 36%X 31%33% Excelsior · 2
36%
31%
33%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior (Eredivisie, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Fortuna Sittard win 36%, draw 31%, Excelsior win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Fortuna Sittard 1.56, Excelsior 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Fortuna Sittard or draw 67%, Excelsior or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Fortuna Sittard's slim model edge over Excelsior suggests a tight contest, but the numbers tell a story of fluctuation. The most likely outcome, a 1-1 draw, is significant at 12%, with the model probabilities giving Fortuna a narrow advantage at 36% to Excelsior's 33%. However, this edge is counterbalanced by both teams' similar profiles — each favoring a low defence and direct playstyle. The head-to-head results since 2022 are inconclusive, with each team securing one win, making it a small sample that doesn't overpower current form and expected goals.
The expected goals (xG) lean intriguingly towards Excelsior, who generate 1.4 xG per match compared to Fortuna's 0.82, despite having fewer points on the board. This suggests an underperformance in converting chances for the visitors, complicating the apparent points edge of the hosts. Meanwhile, defensively, both are leaky: Fortuna concedes a worrying 2.2 xGA per match, while Excelsior isn't far behind at 1.7. The wet conditions, with over 18mm of rain, might suppress goals somewhat, but with a 56% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals, the weather's damping effect is already accounted for.
With both sides known for direct play, the likelihood of both teams finding the net is solid at 59%. This aligns with the model's overall lean towards an open game despite the rainy forecast. The numerical lean towards a draw is supported by the expected values: a 31% probability against available odds provides a significant edge. LeoVegas offers the draw at 3.7, a 15% edge, making it the strongest betting angle here. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet also offer a draw at 3.45, delivering a respectable 7% edge.
In essence, the numbers suggest a competitive match where the draw at LeoVegas stands out as the most compelling wager.
Fortuna SittardForm WLWDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #18xP/match #14Points #6
Key players
- Anthony Kevin N. DescotteFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03
- Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.17 · xT 0.03
- Édouard Oscar MichutCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
ExcelsiorForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #13xP/match #8Points #11
Key players
- Irakli YegoianFxG 0.19 · xT 0.27
- David GardenFxG 0.39 · xT -0.03
- Lennard HartjesCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior
Predicted score matrix
Excelsior →
Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–17.0%
0–25.0%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.1%
1–111.8%
1–27.8%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.9%
2–26.1%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.6%
3–23.2%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,56–1,36
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.35EV+4%
Over 2,556%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Lequincio Zeefuik to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Lequincio Zeefuik to score26%
- Casper Ludvig Widell to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.70LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.56PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fortuna Sittard | X | 2 · Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.35 | EV+ 7% 3.45 | 2.83 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | EV+ 15% 3.70 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.35 | EV+ 7% 3.45 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | EV+ 11% 3.56 | 2.82 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:37
Odds movement
10 %
42 %37 %
2.38 → 2.39
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.62 → 3.56
20 %
36 %31 %
2.81 → 2.82
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFortuna Sittard 1Draw 0Excelsior 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard (16–17)
Excelsior (16–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.5 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 24 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 248 | 316 |
| Passes against per match | 509 | 473 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 32.5 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| Corners against per match | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| Other | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) | Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 42 | 29 |
| Save % | 72% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior according to our model?
The model gives Fortuna Sittard a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Sittard 36%, draw 31%, Excelsior 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
The model expects 1.56 goals (xG) for Fortuna Sittard and 1.36 for Excelsior, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fortuna Sittard or draw (1X) 67%, Excelsior or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.