Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction: Away win 37% (24 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie24 October 2026Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg10°25,6 mm32 km/h

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Willem IILow block & direct

CambuurPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Cambuur (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+41 %)

1 · Willem II 34%X 29%37% Cambuur · 2

34%

29%

37%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Willem II vs Cambuur (Eredivisie, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Willem II win 34%, draw 29%, Cambuur win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Willem II 1.23, Cambuur 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Willem II or draw 63%, Cambuur or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Willem II – Cambuur

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A small head-to-head history isn't mentioned in the data, but current form tells a clear story. Willem II are in a rough patch, suffering four consecutive losses, while Cambuur have been steadily gaining momentum, unbeaten in their last five league games. This contrast in recent performance paints a stark picture for their upcoming encounter.

In terms of expected metrics, the visitors hold a slight edge. Cambuur have a higher xG per match at 1.3 compared to Willem II's 1.1, and their defense is statistically more robust with an xGA of 1.8 against the hosts' alarming 2.4. Adding to the intrigue, Cambuur's ability to find the net in their last eight league matches suggests they have the offensive tools to challenge Willem II effectively, especially given the hosts’ defensive vulnerabilities.

The most likely scorelines reinforce a tight contest, with 1-1 leading the way at 13%, followed by 0-1 at 10%. However, the predicted probability slightly favors Cambuur at 37% compared to Willem II’s 34%. Rain is expected, which could dampen the attacking output, bringing into focus the 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and the 52% likelihood for both teams to score. Given these numbers, a low-scoring draw or a narrow Cambuur win seems probable.

For those hunting value, the under 0.5 goals market offers a compelling proposition. With odds of 19.0 at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, and a model-rated probability of 8%, this bet presents a substantial 58% edge. For a slightly less risky play, consider under 1.5 goals at 5.28 with Betsafe, which still offers a striking 46% edge.

Willem II

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #14xP/match #16Points #18

Key players

Calvin TwigtCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Hidde Willem ter AvestRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Uriël van AalstCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04

Cambuur

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #11Points #14

Key players

Ilyès HamacheLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.15
Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Nicolas BinderFxG 0.32 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Willem II – Cambuur

Predicted score matrix

Cambuur →

Willem II →

0–08.3%

0–19.9%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.4%

1–113.1%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.8%

2–25.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.0-08%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,23–1,30

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@2.45EV+28%

Over 2,547%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cambuur or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cambuur or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Rafik El Arguioui to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Devin Haen to score25%
Ethan Apkakou to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.58% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
Under 0.58% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+41%reference odds
Under 1.528% probability@5.00LeoVegasEV+38%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Willem II	X	2 · Cambuur
Betsafe	2.53	EV+ 3% 3.57	2.53
LeoVegas	2.55	EV+ 7% 3.70	2.60
Nordicbet	2.53	EV+ 3% 3.57	2.53
Pinnacle	2.61	EV+ 8% 3.74	2.58

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

40 %35 %

2.53 → 2.61

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.74

2+1 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.58

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Willem II have lost 4 in a row.
Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Cambuur have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Willem II

Cambuur

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Willem II (9–26)

Cambuur (13–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Willem II

Cambuur

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Willem II

Cambuur

The teams in numbers

Performance	Willem II	Cambuur
Points	2	9
xPoints	9.3	11.4
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	2.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.25

Playing style	Willem II	Cambuur
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.24	0.39
xT per match	0.88	0.95
xTA per match	1.9	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	27
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	23	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.7
Passes per match	295	297
Passes against per match	478	354
Switches of play per match	21.6	20.1
Long balls per match	34	27

Set pieces	Willem II	Cambuur
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	3.9	3.7
Corners against per match	6.6	5.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.36	0.58

Other	Willem II	Cambuur
Throw-in control	0.76	0.79

The goalkeepers	Maxime René Delanghe (Willem II)	Thijs Jansen (Cambuur)
Saves	24	32
Save %	60%	62%
xG prevented	35%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Willem II

Fixtures, form & tips

Cambuur

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Willem II vs Cambuur according to our model?

The model gives Cambuur a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Willem II 34%, draw 29%, Cambuur 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Willem II vs Cambuur?

The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Willem II and 1.30 for Cambuur, 2.54 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Willem II or draw (1X) 63%, Cambuur or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.