NEC vs Groningen Prediction: Home win 48% (25 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie25 October 2026Goffertstadion, Nijmegen11°17,6 mm41 km/h

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NECPossession & high press

GroningenBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · NEC (48%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 23.00 (+13 %)

1 · NEC 48%X 27%26% Groningen · 2

48%

27%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for NEC vs Groningen (Eredivisie, Sunday, 25 October 2026): NEC win 48%, draw 27%, Groningen win 26%. Expected goals (xG): NEC 1.60, Groningen 1.48. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: NEC or draw 74%, Groningen or draw 52%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: NEC – Groningen

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

With NEC's home advantage and a 48% win probability, the model leans towards them. Yet, the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, hinting at a closely contested match. Groningen's ability to find the net in 9 straight league games adds another layer of intrigue. They'll be aiming to exploit their physical approach against NEC's possession and high press tactics.

In terms of expected goals, NEC holds a slight edge with 1.60 compared to Groningen's 1.48. This aligns with their stronger xG per match at 1.7 over the visitors' 1.5. However, Groningen's real-world points tally of 14 outshines NEC's 10, suggesting a disconnect between expected and actual performance. The forecasted rain might hinder scoring, but both teams are likely to find the net, considering the 62% chance of both teams scoring.

Despite the model's 59% inclination for over 2.5 goals, the best value lies elsewhere. The under 2.5 goals at odds 2.81 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offers a 14% edge. For the bold, under 0.5 at 23.0 with Betsafe carries a 13% advantage. Both suggest a tighter game than expected, veering away from the more popular over market.

NEC

Form DLDDD

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #4xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.16
Darko NejašmićCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

Groningen

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #9xP/match #13Points #7

Key players

Thom van BergenCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.13
David van der WerffFxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.33 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: NEC – Groningen

Predicted score matrix

Groningen →

NEC →

0–04.9%

0–16.5%

0–25.0%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.0%

1–111.2%

1–28.1%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.7%

2–26.4%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.1%

3–14.6%

3–23.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,60–1,48

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.75EV+12%

Over 2,559%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

NEC to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

NEC to win48%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Thom van Bergen to score20%
Thijmen Blokzijl to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.55% probability@23.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
Under 0.55% probability@23.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
Under 3.563% probability@1.79PinnacleEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · NEC	X	2 · Groningen
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.24	EV+ 1% 3.80	2.78
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 2.30	EV+ 4% 3.90	2.75
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.24	EV+ 1% 3.80	2.78
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 2.23	EV+ 4% 3.93	2.84

Odds updated 24 Oct, 09:37

Odds movement

10 %

45 %40 %

2.23 → 2.23

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.93 → 3.93

20 %

36 %31 %

2.84 → 2.84

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

NEC 2Draw 0Groningen 2

Goals: 10–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Groningen have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NEC

Groningen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

NEC (15–16)

Groningen (22–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NEC

Groningen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NEC

Groningen

The teams in numbers

Performance	NEC	Groningen
Points	10	14
xPoints	12.1	11.2
xG per match	1.7	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.29

Playing style	NEC	Groningen
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.75	0.49
xT per match	1.7	1.1
xTA per match	0.88	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.2
Entries into the box per match	21	12
Entries into the box against	11	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	410	360
Passes against per match	246	374
Switches of play per match	18	24.7
Long balls per match	26	39

Set pieces	NEC	Groningen
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	5.8	4.8
Corners against per match	3.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.6

Other	NEC	Groningen
Throw-in control	0.74	0.78

The goalkeepers	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)
Saves	13	32
Save %	54%	64%
xG prevented	25%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

NEC

Fixtures, form & tips

Groningen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NEC vs Groningen according to our model?

The model gives NEC a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 48%, draw 27%, Groningen 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in NEC vs Groningen?

The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for NEC and 1.48 for Groningen, 3.08 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

NEC or draw (1X) 74%, Groningen or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.