01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Excelsior or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EredivisieVan Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam14°0,6 mm17 km/h
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ExcelsiorLow block & directvs
GroningenPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Excelsior (41%)
Excelsior vs Groningen · Eredivisie
1 · Excelsior 41%X 28%31% Groningen · 2
41%
28%
31%
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Analysis: Excelsior – Groningen
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Excelsior's knack for direct play against Groningen's high press sets the stage for a clash of styles. The Rotterdam side has consistently found the net in their last 12 league outings, which speaks to their ability to exploit defensive lapses with swift attacks. With a model lean of 41% for the hosts, they seem poised to have the edge, especially considering their superior xPoints and slightly better defensive stats compared to the visitors.
In a small head-to-head sample since 2022, each team has claimed a victory, but the real intrigue lies in how Excelsior harness their low defense to counter Groningen's possession game. The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Excelsior predicted to outscore Groningen 1.63 to 1.32. Rain might dampen the attacking flair slightly, but it's already factored into the models, which still give a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Despite Groningen's aggressive pressing, Excelsior's ability to strike quickly is crucial. Both teams average the same xG per match, but the hosts have a more solid defensive framework, conceding less on average. With a 59% probability for both teams to score, it reflects an anticipated back-and-forth battle, though the tight margins favor the home side.
Betting opportunities emerge from the data. The most likely scoreline lands at 1-1, but a 2-1 win for Excelsior is not far behind, underpinned by their current scoring streak. Among the value bets, the home win at odds of 2.55 with LeoVegas stands out, offering a 3% edge based on the model's assessment. For those seeking a safer angle, the under 3.5 goals at 1.55 also carries a positive expectation at 66%.
In a match balancing directness against possession, look for Excelsior to leverage their attacking continuity against a possession-heavy Groningen.
ExcelsiorForm WWDLD
League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #12xP/match #6Points #7
Key players
- Irakli YegoianFxG 0.11 · xT 0.30
- David GardenFxG 0.42 · xT -0.02
- Aymen SlitiRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.09
GroningenForm LLDDW
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #9xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
- David van der WerffRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.21
- Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Excelsior – Groningen
Predicted score matrix
Groningen →
Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–16.6%
0–24.6%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–08.2%
1–111.6%
1–27.4%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.0%
2–19.2%
2–26.1%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.0%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,63–1,32
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.39EV+4%
Over 2,557%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Excelsior or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lennard Hartjes to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lennard Hartjes to score25%
- Márk Csinger to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Excelsior41% probability@2.59BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Excelsior41% probability@2.59NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@2.39BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Excelsior | X | 2 · Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 2.59 | 3.45 | 2.54 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 3% 2.55 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 2.59 | 3.45 | 2.54 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 17:36
Odds movement
10 %
39 %34 %
2.55 → 2.55
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.60
20 %
39 %34 %
2.55 → 2.55
Over 2,50 %
63 %58 %
1.55 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesExcelsior 1Draw 0Groningen 1
Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Excelsior Rotterdam have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Excelsior
Groningen
Excelsior (15–9)
Groningen (15–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Excelsior
Groningen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Excelsior
Groningen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 297 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 489 | 376 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.4 | 21.5 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Other | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior) | Etienne Vaessen (Groningen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 27 |
| Save % | 70% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Excelsior vs Groningen according to our model?
The model gives Excelsior a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Excelsior 41%, draw 28%, Groningen 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.