01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Utrecht to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
EredivisieStadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht12°0,9 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
UtrechtCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Willem IILow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Utrecht (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Willem II @ 5.82 (+24 %)
Utrecht vs Willem II · Eredivisie
1 · Utrecht 53%X 26%21% Willem II · 2
53%
26%
21%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Utrecht – Willem II
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Utrecht holds the upper hand in their recent head-to-head encounters with Willem II, winning both matches since 2022. However, with only two games in the sample, this record carries limited weight compared to current form and expected goals. The hosts are slight favorites with a 53% chance of winning according to model probabilities, suggesting an edge but not a dominant one. Both teams display similar expected goals per match, with Utrecht at 1.2 and Willem II also at 1.2, but the hosts have a slight advantage in defensive metrics.
The weather forecast predicts 7.5 mm of rain, which could dampen the attacking fluency of both teams and suppress the overall goal count. Despite this, the model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, while both teams to score stands at 55%. However, given the playing styles—Utrecht's counter-attacks and Willem II's low block—goals might not come easy, especially on a rain-soaked pitch.
Utrecht's slight edge in points and expected points suggests they are better positioned going into this clash. Yet, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1 at 11% and 1-0 or 2-1 at 10% each, the visitors could realistically push for a draw. The defensive vulnerabilities of both sides, reflected in xGA figures of 2.0 for Utrecht and 2.4 for Willem II, indicate potential for tight margins.
For bettors seeking value, the odds with LeoVegas present multiple opportunities. An away win at 5.6 offers a substantial 19% edge, aligning with the 21% model probability for a Willem II victory. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.6 provides the same edge, reinforced by the potential impact of adverse weather. Finally, with the draw priced at 4.6, its model-backed 26% probability also suggests an attractive play.
UtrechtForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #15xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Artem StepanovFxG 0.50 · xT 0.03
- Adrian BlakeLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
- Arthur ZagréLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Willem IIForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #11xP/match #14Points #18
Key players
- Devin HaenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.03
- Calvin TwigtCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Nathan Noël Romejo Tjoe-A-OnLBxG 0.12 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: Utrecht – Willem II
Predicted score matrix
Willem II →
Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–16.1%
0–23.5%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.8%
1–111.5%
1–26.1%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.7%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.1%
3–15.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.7%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,75–1,10
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.60EV+19%
Over 2,554%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Utrecht to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Artem Stepanov to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Artem Stepanov to score30%
- Per van Loon to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Willem II21% probability@5.82BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Willem II21% probability@5.82NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Willem II21% probability@5.60LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Utrecht | X | 2 · Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.51 | EV+ 10% 4.29 | EV+ 24% 5.82 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | EV+ 18% 4.60 | EV+ 19% 5.60 |
| Nordicbet | 1.51 | EV+ 10% 4.29 | EV+ 24% 5.82 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
10 %
65 %60 %
1.50 → 1.50
X0 %
23 %18 %
4.60 → 4.60
20 %
19 %14 %
5.60 → 5.60
Over 2,5+1 %
67 %62 %
1.44 → 1.45
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesUtrecht 2Draw 0Willem II 0
Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Utrecht
Willem II
Utrecht (9–24)
Willem II (6–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Utrecht
Willem II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Utrecht
Willem II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 2 |
| xPoints | 7.9 | 7.7 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 2.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 24 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 305 | 291 |
| Passes against per match | 426 | 507 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.6 | 22.4 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.33 |
| Other | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Vasilis Cornelius Barkas (Utrecht) | Maxime René Delanghe (Willem II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 16 |
| Save % | 55% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Utrecht vs Willem II according to our model?
The model gives Utrecht a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Utrecht 53%, draw 26%, Willem II 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.