01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Telstar or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
EredivisieBUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid14°0,9 mm23 km/h
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TelstarLow block & directvs
ADO Den HaagCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Telstar (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+78 %)
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie
1 · Telstar 37%X 31%32% ADO Den Haag · 2
37%
31%
32%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Telstar – ADO Den Haag
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The clash between Telstar and ADO Den Haag is poised to be a tightly contested affair with the odds slightly favoring the hosts. With model probabilities giving Telstar a 37% chance of victory compared to ADO Den Haag's 32%, the numbers suggest a narrow edge for the home side. The expected goals tell a similar story: Telstar's 1.21 slightly edges ADO's 1.08, highlighting the hosts' marginal advantage in offensive potential.
The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, paint a picture of a low-scoring game, and these probabilities are reinforced by the expected weather conditions of heavy rain, which usually dampens goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams have struggled to rack up points, but Telstar's current tally of five points and a superior seven in xPoints indicates they might be better poised for this particular matchup. The hosts' direct style could exploit any lapses in ADO's counter-attacking setup, but it's unlikely to lead to a goal fest given the underwhelming xG per match: 0.97 for Telstar and 0.83 for Den Haag.
With only a small sample of head-to-head data available, it's prudent to lean more heavily on current form and expected goals, both of which suggest a cagey and low-scoring encounter. The model's probability for under 2.5 goals sits at a hefty 60%, and given the over 2.5 market is only rated at 40%, the value lies squarely on betting unders.
The sharpest angle here for bettors is the under market with LeoVegas. The under 2.5 bet at odds of 2.3 offers a 38% value edge, while even more conservative punters might eye the under 3.5 at 1.55 with an 80% probability according to the model — both represent strong value plays considering the anticipated low-scoring nature of this matchup.
TelstarForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #16xP/match #16Points #13
Key players
- Nokkvi ThorissonFxG 0.04 · xT -0.02
- Patrick BrouwerFxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
- Nils RossenCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
ADO Den HaagForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #14xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Juho KiloCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Yannick Fereira EduardoFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
- Pascal MulderCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Telstar – ADO Den Haag
Predicted score matrix
ADO Den Haag →
Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.5%
0–110.6%
0–25.9%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.8%
1–113.6%
1–27.2%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.0%
2–24.3%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.2%
3–21.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,21–1,08
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@2.35EV+40%
Over 2,540%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Telstar or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes to score24%
- Finn de Bruin to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.510% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+78%reference odds
- Under 0.510% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+78%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+51%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Telstar | X | 2 · ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.97 | EV+ 13% 3.61 | EV+ 13% 3.53 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | EV+ 18% 3.75 | EV+ 5% 3.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.97 | EV+ 13% 3.61 | EV+ 13% 3.53 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
10 %
49 %44 %
2.02 → 2.02
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.75 → 3.75
20 %
31 %26 %
3.30 → 3.30
Over 2,5+1 %
63 %58 %
1.53 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
Telstar (5–12)
ADO Den Haag (7–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 2 |
| xPoints | 7 | 5.7 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 0.83 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 276 | 356 |
| Passes against per match | 447 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 27.6 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Other | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar) | Kilian Nikiema (ADO Den Haag) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 38 |
| Save % | 75% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Telstar vs ADO Den Haag according to our model?
The model gives Telstar a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Telstar 37%, draw 31%, ADO Den Haag 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.