01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
EredivisieMAC3PARK Stadion, Zwolle13°0,6 mm20 km/h
Läs på svenska
PEC ZwolleLow block & directvs
CambuurPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · PEC Zwolle (41%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+47 %)
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur · Eredivisie
1 · PEC Zwolle 41%X 26%33% Cambuur · 2
41%
26%
33%
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Analysis: PEC Zwolle – Cambuur
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The clash between PEC Zwolle and Cambuur presents an intriguing narrative centered around Cambuur's superior underlying stats. Despite leading Zwolle by a single point in the standings, Cambuur's edge in xPoints (8.0 vs. 6.3) and xG per match (1.3 vs. 0.92) suggests they could have the upper hand on the pitch. Yet, the model gives Zwolle a slight nod at 41% probability to win, hinting at a tense encounter where the margins are fine.
Zwolle’s defensive frailties stand out starkly. Conceding an xGA of 2.3 per match, they have struggled to keep opponents at bay. This vulnerability contrasts with Cambuur’s more solid defensive profile, recording an xGA of 2.0. Given Zwolle’s reliance on direct play, they may find themselves exposed against Cambuur’s possession-based control—a style likely to frustrate Zwolle's attempts to dictate the game tempo.
Considering the most likely scorelines—1-1 (13%) and 1-0 or 2-1 (both at 9%)—the data leans toward a low-scoring draw or a narrow victory for either side. The expected goals figures align closely with these predictions, with Zwolle at 1.44 and Cambuur at 1.27. The weather factor, with 6.9 mm of rain, could further suppress scoring opportunities, already accounted for in a modest over 2.5 goals likelihood of 51%.
For the punters, the betting angles offer some tantalizing value. LeoVegas lists under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.615—a profitable 15% edge based on the model’s 71% probability. More adventurous bettors might consider the under 2.5 goals at 2.45, with a 20% value edge. However, if you side with Cambuur's statistical strength, their win at 3.45 offers a 14% edge—reflecting the model-rated 33% chance of an away triumph.
In what promises to be a meticulously controlled match, the smart money might well be on the under 3.5 goals. Such conservative bets, though devoid of glamour, often keep the lights on.
PEC ZwolleForm WLDLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #17xP/match #17Points #15
Key players
- Koen KostonsFxG 0.23 · xT 0.08
- Dylan MbayoRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
- Simon GravesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
CambuurForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #10xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Nicolas BinderFxG 0.29 · xT 0.16
- Ilyès HamacheLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.17
- Fabian KvamRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: PEC Zwolle – Cambuur
Predicted score matrix
Cambuur →
PEC Zwolle →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–18.1%
0–25.4%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.2%
1–112.5%
1–27.7%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.2%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,44–1,27
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.53EV+24%
Over 2,551%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Koen Kostons to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Rafik El Arguioui to score23%
- Ethan Apkakou to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00BetsafeEV+47%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00NordicbetEV+47%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@5.28BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · PEC Zwolle | X | 2 · Cambuur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | 3.81 | EV+ 20% 3.64 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | EV+ 2% 3.90 | EV+ 14% 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | 3.81 | EV+ 20% 3.64 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
10 %
51 %46 %
1.95 → 1.95
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.90 → 3.90
20 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.45
Over 2,5+1 %
65 %60 %
1.48 → 1.50
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PEC Zwolle
Cambuur
PEC Zwolle (6–20)
Cambuur (10–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
PEC Zwolle
Cambuur
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
PEC Zwolle
Cambuur
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 5 |
| xPoints | 6.3 | 8 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 2.3 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 270 | 301 |
| Passes against per match | 456 | 352 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.8 | 20.5 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 27 |
| Set pieces | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| Other | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle) | Thijs Jansen (Cambuur) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 24 |
| Save % | 64% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur according to our model?
The model gives PEC Zwolle a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PEC Zwolle 41%, draw 26%, Cambuur 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.