Data study · SHL 2026/27
SHL 2026/27 — simulated 1,000,000 times
Who will win the SHL? Which teams go straight into the play-offs, who has to go through the play-in and who is forced into the SHL qualifier? Instead of guessing, we let the supercomputer play the whole season a million times — every match, every round, over and over — and count how often each team finishes in each position.
Skellefteå AIK wins the league in 37.7% of the seasons, with an expected 98.1 points. The simulation was run on 16 September 2026, ahead of the first round of the season.
The title race
The chance of finishing top of the regular season once every round has been played. Skellefteå AIK is the favourite, but another team wins the league in 62% of the simulations.
Share of 1,000,000 simulated seasons that end with the team top of the table. Teams below 0.5% are not shown.
The final table — place by place
Each row is a team, each column a final position. The darker the square, the more often the team finishes there. Wide, pale rows mean an open race; a dark cluster means the model is confident.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Skellefteå AIK | 38 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 6 | |||||||||
 Frölunda HC | 27 | 24 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 5 | ||||||||
 Brynäs IF | 17 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 7 | ||||||||
 Rögle BK | 8 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 5 | ||||||
 Färjestad BK | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | ||||||
 Luleå HF | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |||||
 IF Björklöven | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | |||||
 Växjö Lakers HC | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | |||||
 Örebro HK | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | |||||
 Linköping HC | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | |||||
 Djurgårdens IF | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 8 | ||||||
 Timrå IK | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 10 | ||||||
 HV 71 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 24 | 25 | ||||||||
 IF Malmö Redhawks | 8 | 13 | 23 | 45 |
Probability in per cent for each final position — darker = more often. The column colour shows the band: Title · Direct play-offs (2–6) · Play-in (7–10) · Mid-table (11–12) · SHL qualifier (13–14).
How the season ends for each team
The same figures added up into what matters: title, direct play-offs, play-in, mid-table, SHL qualifier. Teams with more than ten per cent for both the play-offs and the relegation qualifier are the wild cards of the season.
Skellefteå AIKFrölunda HCBrynäs IFRögle BKFärjestad BKLuleå HFIF BjörklövenVäxjö Lakers HCÖrebro HKLinköping HCDjurgårdens IFTimrå IKHV 71How the season ends for each team, as a percentage of the simulations. The title is not included in the play-off band — the bands are mutually exclusive and add up to 100.
The points distribution
How many points do the teams finish on? The curves show the share of simulated seasons for each final points total — the width is the uncertainty, the peak the most likely outcome. Choose teams to compare.
- Skellefteå AIK: expected 98.1 points, 80% of seasons between 86 and 110
- Frölunda HC: expected 95.5 points, 80% of seasons between 83 and 107
- Brynäs IF: expected 92.4 points, 80% of seasons between 80 and 105
- Rögle BK: expected 88.3 points, 80% of seasons between 76 and 100
The full table in numbers
Expected points, the range 80 per cent of seasons land within, expected position and the probability for each band.
| # | Team | xPts | 80% range | Exp. pos. | Title | Direct play-offs | Play-in | Mid-table | SHL qualifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå AIK | 98.1 | 86–110 | 2.5 | 38% | 59% | 3.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 2 | Frölunda HC | 95.5 | 83–107 | 3.0 | 27% | 67% | 6.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 3 | Brynäs IF | 92.4 | 80–105 | 3.6 | 17% | 72% | 10% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Rögle BK | 88.3 | 76–100 | 4.6 | 8.4% | 70% | 19% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 5 | Färjestad BK | 87.0 | 75–99 | 5.0 | 6.8% | 68% | 22% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| 6 | Luleå HF | 79.1 | 67–91 | 7.1 | 1.4% | 42% | 44% | 10% | 3.1% |
| 7 | IF Björklöven | 78.6 | 66–91 | 7.3 | 1.2% | 40% | 45% | 11% | 3.4% |
| 8 | Växjö Lakers HC | 73.6 | 61–86 | 8.7 | 0.3% | 22% | 48% | 20% | 9.0% |
| 9 | Örebro HK | 73.2 | 61–86 | 8.8 | 0.3% | 21% | 48% | 21% | 9.7% |
| 10 | Linköping HC | 72.3 | 60–85 | 9.1 | 0.3% | 18% | 47% | 23% | 11% |
| 11 | Djurgårdens IF | 68.7 | 56–81 | 10.1 | <0.1% | 10% | 40% | 29% | 20% |
| 12 | Timrå IK | 67.3 | 55–80 | 10.4 | <0.1% | 8.1% | 37% | 31% | 24% |
| 13 | HV 71 | 61.1 | 49–73 | 11.9 | <0.1% | 2.3% | 19% | 29% | 50% |
| 14 | IF Malmö Redhawks | 56.8 | 45–69 | 12.7 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 9.9% | 21% | 69% |
How the supercomputer works it out
Three steps — from match model to probability table.
Every match is replayed
Each remaining match is decided at random from the teams’ estimated strength — home advantage, goalscoring and defending weighed against the opposition. No match is a foregone conclusion, just as in real life.
A million seasons
The whole league is played through a million times. Points are awarded under hockey’s system: three points for a win in regulation time, two and one when the match is decided in overtime or a shootout.
The distribution is the answer
Once every season has been played, we count how often each team won the league, made the play-offs or ended up in the qualifier. That is the team’s probability — not a guess, but a frequency.
The model’s baseline forecast is supplemented with editorial strength adjustments ahead of the season (squad changes).
Frequently asked questions about the SHL simulation
Who wins the SHL 2026/27 according to the simulation?
Skellefteå AIK wins the league in 37.7% of 1,000,000 simulated seasons, with an expected 98.1 points. The closest challenger is Frölunda HC with 26.5%. That is a frequency, not a forecast — in more than half of the simulations another team wins the league.
Which teams make the play-offs in the SHL?
The best chances of a top-six finish belong to Skellefteå AIK (96%), Frölunda HC (94%), Brynäs IF (89%), Rögle BK (79%), Färjestad BK (75%), Luleå HF (43%). The probability refers to a place among the top six of the regular season once all 52 rounds have been played.
Who risks the relegation qualifier in the SHL?
The biggest risk of finishing in the bottom two belongs to IF Malmö Redhawks (69%), HV 71 (50%), Timrå IK (24%). The battle at the bottom is often tighter than the race at the top — a few points separate several teams.
How does the simulation work?
Every remaining match gets a full set of score probabilities from the same match model as our predictions — team strength, form, shot quality, special teams and goaltending. The supercomputer plays out every match, settles overtime and shootouts, awards the points (3/2/1/0) and ranks the table. This is repeated 1,000,000 times, and the share of seasons with a given outcome becomes the team’s probability.
How often is the simulation recalculated?
After rounds have been played. New results change both the standings and the teams’ estimated strength, so the probabilities move throughout the season — most of all where a few points decide.