01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Alemannia Aachen to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
3. Liga11°6,1 mm19 km/h
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Alemannia AachenPossession control2–0
Hansa RostockPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Alemannia Aachen (50%)
Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock · 3. Liga
1 · Alemannia Aachen 50%X 26%24% Hansa Rostock · 2
50%
26%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock (3. Liga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Alemannia Aachen win 50%, draw 26%, Hansa Rostock win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Alemannia Aachen 1.79, Hansa Rostock 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Alemannia Aachen or draw 76%, Hansa Rostock or draw 50%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Alemannia Aachen’s dominant home presence has caught attention ahead of their clash with Hansa Rostock. The hosts have not been defeated by the visitors since 2024, boasting two wins and two draws. While this head-to-head sample is small, it underscores Aachen's ability to hold their ground against Rostock. Their knack for possession control could be pivotal, especially given their slight underperformance in terms of actual points compared to expected points.
The model gives Aachen a 50% chance to win, suggesting a favorable outcome for the home side despite trailing Rostock by four points in the league. The expected goals figures—Aachen's 1.79 against Rostock's 1.37—further bolster the case for a successful evening at home, where the hosts have been effective in both attack and defense.
However, the match is forecasted to see some rain, which often suppresses goal scoring, but both teams' emphasis on possession might negate some of this impact. With a model probability of 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, the expectation is for an open, competitive encounter.
Despite Rostock's slight statistical edge in terms of xPoints and xG per match, Aachen's home advantage and historical resilience against their opponents are significant. The most likely outcomes are a draw or a narrow victory for Aachen, with 1-1 and 2-1 being the favored scorelines by the model.
The sharpest betting angle is the home win at odds of 2.45 with multiple bookmakers, including Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. Given the model rates Aachen's chances at 50%, this presents a substantial 22% value edge. The numbers suggest siding with Aachen, as they look poised to leverage their home ground advantage and recent form against a Rostock side that, despite some statistical advantages, has struggled to secure victories in this matchup.
Alemannia AachenForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #10xP/match #9Points #11
Key players
- Lukas ScepanikRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.12
- Matti WagnerLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
- Joel Miguel da Silva KialaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Hansa RostockForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #9xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Florian CarstensCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
- Lukas WallnerCBxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
- Bernie LennemannRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Alemannia Aachen 50% · Draw 26% · Hansa Rostock 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Alemannia AachenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,67fair 5,92+13 %
MissMatchresultat - Hansa RostockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,71fair 10,17-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock
Predicted score matrix
Hansa Rostock →
Alemannia Aachen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.5%
0–24.0%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–07.3%
1–110.7%
1–27.1%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.3%
2–26.4%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–04.1%
3–15.6%
3–23.8%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.7%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-07%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,79–1,37
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.75EV+7%
Over 2,561%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Alemannia Aachen to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Lukas Scepanik to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Lukas Scepanik to score26%
- Marco Schuster to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Alemannia Aachen50% probability@2.83PinnacleEV+41%reference odds
- 1 · Alemannia Aachen50% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
- 1 · Alemannia Aachen50% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+36%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Alemannia Aachen | X | 2 · Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 22% 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 36% 2.72 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 32% 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 36% 2.72 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 15% 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 41% 2.83 | 3.58 | 2.37 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+12 %
38 %33 %
2.53 → 2.83
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.59 → 3.58
2-6 %
41 %36 %
2.52 → 2.37
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAlemannia Aachen 2Draw 2Hansa Rostock 0
Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Alemannia Aachen
Hansa Rostock
Alemannia Aachen (13–16)
Hansa Rostock (17–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Alemannia Aachen
Hansa Rostock
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Alemannia Aachen
Hansa Rostock
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Alemannia Aachen | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 15 |
| xPoints | 12.9 | 14 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Alemannia Aachen | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 334 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 361 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.2 | 23.5 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Alemannia Aachen | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Other | Alemannia Aachen | Hansa Rostock |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Stefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen) | Luca Unbehaun (Hansa Rostock) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 26 |
| Save % | 67% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt14 October 2026
- Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- Verl – Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock according to our model?
The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alemannia Aachen 50%, draw 26%, Hansa Rostock 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock?
The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Alemannia Aachen and 1.37 for Hansa Rostock, 3.16 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Alemannia Aachen or draw (1X) 76%, Hansa Rostock or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.