Fortuna Köln vs VfB Stuttgart II: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

3. Liga16 October 202617°17 km/h

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Fortuna KölnPossession control

0–1

VfB Stuttgart IIPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Fortuna Köln (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.50 (+4 %)

1 · Fortuna Köln 42%X 27%31% VfB Stuttgart II · 2

42%

27%

31%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fortuna Köln vs VfB Stuttgart II (3. Liga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Fortuna Köln win 42%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart II win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Fortuna Köln 1.41, VfB Stuttgart II 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Fortuna Köln or draw 69%, VfB Stuttgart II or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II

Anna Karlsson · 16 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The data suggests a tight contest on the scoreboard, with the most likely outcomes being a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 victory for Fortuna. Yet, Fortuna's numbers assert a stronger case; they average 1.2 expected goals per match compared to Stuttgart's 1.0, and they've been more solid defensively, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.3) than Stuttgart's leaky 2.0. This defensive frailty could be Stuttgart's undoing, particularly against a side that appears better equipped to capitalize on opportunities.

With over 2.5 goals having a 59% probability, the model leans towards a game with goals from both sides, supported by a 61% chance of both teams finding the net. While Stuttgart might fancy their chances on the break, it's Fortuna's cohesive style that seems more likely to prevail in a match expected to be rich in scoring chances.

For value seekers, SC Fortuna Koln's odds to win could be worth a closer look, especially given their statistical advantages. Fortuna's consistent form against a defensively vulnerable Stuttgart offers a reasonable expectation of a home victory. Yet, with a 42% win probability, it's not a guaranteed outcome, but it's a calculated risk that tilts in favor of the home side.

Fortuna Köln

Form WDLWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #16xP/match #12Points #14

Key players

David Kamm Al-AzzaweCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Romeo AigbekaenFxG 0.15 · xT 0.14
Florian HeisterRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15

VfB Stuttgart II

Form WLLDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #13xP/match #20Points #16

Key players

Jarzinho MalangaLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Alexander GroissCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Nicolas SessaCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.18

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fortuna Köln 42% · Draw 27% · VfB Stuttgart II 31%

Match prediction: Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II

Predicted score matrix

VfB Stuttgart II →

Fortuna Köln →

0–05.1%

0–17.5%

0–26.4%

0–33.5%

0–4+2.0%

1–06.4%

1–111.3%

1–29.0%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.8%

2–17.7%

2–26.3%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.2%

3–13.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,41–1,63

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.50EV+4%

Over 2,559%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fortuna Köln or draw (1X)58%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fortuna Köln or draw (1X)58%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Bennit Bröger to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Bennit Bröger to score37%
Alexander Groiß to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.541% probability@2.50Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds
Under 3.564% probability@1.57LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
Under 3.564% probability@1.57Paddy PowerEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fortuna Köln	X	2 · VfB Stuttgart II
Bet365	2.05	3.50	3.00
LeoVegas	2.18	3.50	2.80
Paddy Power	2.15	3.60	2.70
Pinnacle	2.22	EV+ 0% 3.72	2.99

Odds updated 16 Oct, 08:15

Odds movement

1+3 %

46 %41 %

2.15 → 2.22

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.64 → 3.72

2-1 %

34 %29 %

3.03 → 2.99

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fortuna Köln

VfB Stuttgart II

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fortuna Köln (6–6)

VfB Stuttgart II (13–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fortuna Köln

VfB Stuttgart II

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fortuna Köln

VfB Stuttgart II

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fortuna Köln	VfB Stuttgart II
Points	9	8
xPoints	9.9	5.3
xG per match	1.2	1
xGA per match	1.3	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.23

Playing style	Fortuna Köln	VfB Stuttgart II
Build-up efficiency	0.39	0.32
Field tilt	0.39	0.63
xT per match	0.96	1
xTA per match	1	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	19	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.73	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.73
Passes per match	285	404
Passes against per match	391	274
Switches of play per match	27.5	25.5
Long balls per match	38	33

Set pieces	Fortuna Köln	VfB Stuttgart II
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	4.3	3.5
Corners against per match	4.6	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.67

Other	Fortuna Köln	VfB Stuttgart II
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Lennart Winkler (Fortuna Köln)	Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II)
Saves	27	26
Save %	82%	63%
xG prevented	59%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fortuna Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

VfB Stuttgart II

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fortuna Köln vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?

The model gives Fortuna Köln a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Köln 42%, draw 27%, VfB Stuttgart II 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Köln vs VfB Stuttgart II?

The model expects 1.41 goals (xG) for Fortuna Köln and 1.63 for VfB Stuttgart II, 3.04 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fortuna Köln or draw (1X) 69%, VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.