01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rot-Weiss Essen to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
3. Liga10°1,7 mm13 km/h
Läs på svenska
IngolstadtLow block & direct1–0
Rot-Weiss EssenPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Rot-Weiss Essen (53%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 21.00 (+43 %)
Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen · 3. Liga
1 · Ingolstadt 20%X 27%53% Rot-Weiss Essen · 2
20%
27%
53%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen (3. Liga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Ingolstadt win 20%, draw 27%, Rot-Weiss Essen win 53%. Expected goals (xG): Ingolstadt 1.02, Rot-Weiss Essen 1.72. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Ingolstadt or draw 47%, Rot-Weiss Essen or draw 80%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The 53% probability in favor of Rot-Weiss Essen sets the tone for this 3. Liga clash against Ingolstadt. The visitors not only boast a solid form, remaining unbeaten over their last seven league outings, but also edge the hosts in several key metrics, including expected goals and points. Ingolstadt, meanwhile, have struggled, losing their last three matches. The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample size of four games, further tips the balance towards the visitors with Essen winning three times.
Expected goals reinforce Essen's advantage, predicting 1.72 goals for them compared to Ingolstadt's 1.02. This aligns with the model's most likely outcomes, highlighting a 1-1 draw at 12% and a 0-1 or 1-2 loss for the home side. The expected goal figures, coupled with Ingolstadt's low defensive profile, suggest a controlled performance by the visitors, favoring possession and possibly a narrow win.
The sharpest angle here is the value in betting markets for under 2.5 goals, priced at odds of 2.48 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and slightly lower at 2.45 with LeoVegas. The model rates this at 48%, creating a significant edge of up to 20%. Despite a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals (52%), this value makes the under a compelling option.
IngolstadtForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #17xP/match #16Points #17
Key players
- Simon LorenzCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
- Yannick DeichmannRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
- Georgios AntzoulasCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Rot-Weiss EssenForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #1xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Lucas BrummeLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.27
- Jose Enrique Rios AlonsoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Franci Clarck Bouebari KitsamoutseLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.22
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Ingolstadt 20% · Draw 27% · Rot-Weiss Essen 53%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Rot-Weiss EssenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,61fair 6,96-34 %
MissMatchresultat - FC Ingolstadt 04Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,16fair 19,48-63 %
MissMatch prediction: Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen
Predicted score matrix
Rot-Weiss Essen →
Ingolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–110.8%
0–29.5%
0–35.5%
0–4+3.5%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.7%
1–29.7%
1–35.6%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–03.4%
2–15.8%
2–25.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–01.1%
3–12.0%
3–21.7%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-210%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,02–1,72
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.63EV+26%
Over 2,552%
@1.48
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rot-Weiss Essen to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Semir Telalović to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Semir Telalović to score30%
- Jonas Scholz to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@21.00Paddy PowerEV+43%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@5.50Bet365EV+31%reference odds
- Under 1.524% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+31%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ingolstadt | X | 2 · Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Betsafe | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 7% 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 4% 1.95 |
| Nordicbet | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 7% 2.00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.80 | EV+ 1% 3.80 | EV+ 10% 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.36 | EV+ 10% 4.13 | EV+ 3% 1.93 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+2 %
31 %26 %
3.29 → 3.36
X+4 %
26 %21 %
3.99 → 4.13
20 %
51 %46 %
1.93 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesIngolstadt 0Draw 1Rot-Weiss Essen 3
Goals: 4–10 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have lost 3 in a row.
- Rot-Weiss Essen are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ingolstadt
Rot-Weiss Essen
Ingolstadt (9–15)
Rot-Weiss Essen (16–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ingolstadt
Rot-Weiss Essen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ingolstadt
Rot-Weiss Essen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ingolstadt | Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 15 |
| xPoints | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| Playing style | Ingolstadt | Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 261 | 336 |
| Passes against per match | 384 | 318 |
| Switches of play per match | 18 | 23.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Ingolstadt | Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 7.7 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| Other | Ingolstadt | Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | David Klein (Ingolstadt) | Jakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 19 |
| Save % | 69% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt14 October 2026
- Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- Verl – Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen according to our model?
The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ingolstadt 20%, draw 27%, Rot-Weiss Essen 53%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen?
The model expects 1.02 goals (xG) for Ingolstadt and 1.72 for Rot-Weiss Essen, 2.74 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Ingolstadt or draw (1X) 47%, Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.