01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Jahn Regensburg or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
3. Liga11°0,1 mm16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jahn RegensburgLow block & direct0–0
Wehen WiesbadenBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Jahn Regensburg (36%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.93 (+8 %)
Jahn Regensburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden · 3. Liga
1 · Jahn Regensburg 36%X 28%36% Wehen Wiesbaden · 2
36%
28%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jahn Regensburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden (3. Liga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Jahn Regensburg win 36%, draw 28%, Wehen Wiesbaden win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Jahn Regensburg 1.64, Wehen Wiesbaden 1.48. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Jahn Regensburg or draw 64%, Wehen Wiesbaden or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Two matches since 2024. That's the small head-to-head sample between Jahn Regensburg and Wehen Wiesbaden, making it less important than current form and expected goals. Each team has claimed one win in those encounters. But as you look closer, the contest's true tension emerges: both sides have a nearly identical probability of victory, standing at 36%, with a draw lurking at 28%.
Jahn Regensburg may only have 8 points to their name, but their underlying metrics paint a more competitive portrait. With an xPoints tally of 11.4, they suggest a team performing below its potential. On the other hand, Wehen Wiesbaden's actual points of 11 map more closely to their xPoints of 12.8, hinting at a more consistent track record.
Both teams are expected to find the net, with a significant 63% probability of both teams scoring. While Regensburg's style leans low defense and direct, Wiesbaden balances physicality with structured play. This style contrast is likely to produce goals, aligning with the model's 60% lean on over 2.5 goals. Expected goals further emphasize a likely high-scoring affair, with Regensburg's edge in xG per match at 1.7 slightly surpassing Wiesbaden's 1.6.
The numbers suggest a contest where Jahn Regensburg, despite their lower points, might have an edge that isn't fully reflected in current standings. With Jahn Regensburg's underlying numbers, there's a hint of value in backing the hosts. A 2-1 scoreline for Regensburg feels plausible, with the over 2.5 goals market holding the sharper angle as this clash unfolds.
Jahn RegensburgForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #2xP/match #10Points #15
Key players
- Oscar SchönfelderLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.26
- Lucas HermesFxG 0.36 · xT 0.14
- Nicolas-Bernd Oliveira KisilowskiRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.22
Wehen WiesbadenForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #8xP/match #11Points #10
Key players
- Gino FechnerCDMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
- Fabian GreilingerLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.23
- Roberto MassimoRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Jahn Regensburg 36% · Draw 28% · Wehen Wiesbaden 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Jahn RegensburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,96fair 6,95-14 %
MissMatchresultat - Wehen WiesbadenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,89fair 8,61-32 %
MissMatch prediction: Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden
Predicted score matrix
Wehen Wiesbaden →
Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–16.2%
0–24.8%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–06.9%
1–111.0%
1–27.9%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.8%
2–26.5%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.8%
3–23.6%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.9%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,64–1,48
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+21%
Under 2,540%
@2.63EV+4%
Over 2,560%
@1.57
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Jahn Regensburg or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Nassim Boujellab to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Nassim Boujellab to score22%
- Sascha Hingerl to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.93PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.540% probability@2.63Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.75Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jahn Regensburg | X | 2 · Wehen Wiesbaden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | EV+ 3% 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | EV+ 8% 3.93 | 2.56 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+3 %
41 %36 %
2.37 → 2.44
X+4 %
27 %22 %
3.77 → 3.93
2-2 %
39 %34 %
2.61 → 2.56
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesJahn Regensburg 1Draw 0Wehen Wiesbaden 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jahn Regensburg
Wehen Wiesbaden
Jahn Regensburg (18–17)
Wehen Wiesbaden (12–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jahn Regensburg
Wehen Wiesbaden
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jahn Regensburg
Wehen Wiesbaden
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jahn Regensburg | Wehen Wiesbaden |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 11 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Jahn Regensburg | Wehen Wiesbaden |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 357 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 390 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.6 | 19.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Jahn Regensburg | Wehen Wiesbaden |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| Other | Jahn Regensburg | Wehen Wiesbaden |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Hannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg) | Florian Stritzel (Wehen Wiesbaden) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 26 |
| Save % | 50% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt14 October 2026
- Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- Verl – Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jahn Regensburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden according to our model?
The model gives Jahn Regensburg a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jahn Regensburg 36%, draw 28%, Wehen Wiesbaden 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Jahn Regensburg vs Wehen Wiesbaden?
The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Jahn Regensburg and 1.48 for Wehen Wiesbaden, 3.12 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Jahn Regensburg or draw (1X) 64%, Wehen Wiesbaden or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.