01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
3. Liga12°7,9 mm24 km/h
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Fortuna DüsseldorfPossession control1–3
SaarbrückenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf (38%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.00 (+17 %)
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Saarbrücken · 3. Liga
1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 38%X 28%35% Saarbrücken · 2
38%
28%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Saarbrücken (3. Liga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Fortuna Düsseldorf win 38%, draw 28%, Saarbrücken win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43, Saarbrücken 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw 65%, Saarbrücken or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fortuna Düsseldorf – Saarbrücken
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The tension between two possession-oriented teams, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Saarbrücken, is set to define their clash. Both are skilled at controlling the ball, but the model gives a slight edge to the hosts in terms of probabilities. Despite this, Saarbrücken holds the upper hand in both points and expected points, signaling their superior form so far. The expected goals are tight, with Düsseldorf at 1.43 and Saarbrücken at 1.33.
A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline, which could be influenced by the predicted rainfall of 7.9 mm, likely muting offensive ventures and leading to a more cautious encounter. While both teams are capable of scoring, the conditions might lead to less fluid attacking play, already reflected in the model's numbers. The match's shape could hinge on who seizes control of the midfield, with both sides adept at keeping the ball.
Saarbrücken's higher expected goals per match (2.1) and slightly better defensive record suggest they might be more threatening in attack, yet Düsseldorf's home advantage and the predicted weather conditions might level the playing field. The hosts' need to convert their possession into tangible results is critical, especially given their lower xPoints compared to Saarbrücken.
For those analyzing the betting angles, the under 2.5 goals market stands out as the most appealing. With odds at 2.35 across Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, there's a 12% edge in value, according to the model. Given the expected weather impact and both teams' tendencies to control play, the under 2.5 goals appears to be a sharp play.
Fortuna DüsseldorfForm DWWLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #9xT #7xP/match #17Points #12
Key players
- Jorrit Petrus Carolina HendrixCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
- Erik WekesserLWBxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
- Tim OberdorfCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
SaarbrückenForm WLDWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #5xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Patrick SontheimerCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
- Florian PickRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.24
- Siemen VoetCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
Final score
1 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 38% · Draw 28% · Saarbrücken 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FC SaarbrückenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,84fair 10,66-36 %
HitMatchresultat - Fortuna DüsseldorfBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,13fair 9,24-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf – Saarbrücken
Predicted score matrix
Saarbrücken →
Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–18.0%
0–25.6%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.7%
1–112.4%
1–28.0%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.6%
2–25.7%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,43–1,33
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.38EV+5%
Over 2,552%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Philipp Förster to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Philipp Förster to score18%
- Patrick Sontheimer to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.523% probability@5.00Paddy PowerEV+17%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.38Paddy PowerEV+13%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00Paddy PowerEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf | X | 2 · Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | EV+ 7% 3.10 |
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.50 | EV+ 0% 2.90 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | EV+ 0% 3.60 | EV+ 4% 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | EV+ 9% 3.90 | EV+ 6% 3.07 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+3 %
48 %43 %
2.06 → 2.12
X+2 %
27 %22 %
3.83 → 3.90
20 %
33 %28 %
3.07 → 3.07
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
Fortuna Düsseldorf (8–9)
Saarbrücken (19–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 14 |
| xPoints | 8.8 | 13.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.79 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 390 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 306 | 317 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.4 | 32.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.62 |
| Other | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Louis Sascha Lord (Fortuna Düsseldorf) | Matteo Bignetti (Saarbrücken) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 26 |
| Save % | 76% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Viktoria Köln – Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
- Waldhof Mannheim – Ingolstadt14 October 2026
- Preussen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- Verl – Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Saarbrücken according to our model?
The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Düsseldorf 38%, draw 28%, Saarbrücken 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Saarbrücken?
The model expects 1.43 goals (xG) for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.33 for Saarbrücken, 2.77 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (1X) 65%, Saarbrücken or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.