01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hoffenheim II or draw (1X)59%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
3. Liga
Läs på svenska
Hoffenheim IIPossession control2–1
VerlPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Hoffenheim II (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Verl @ 3.70 (+30 %)
Hoffenheim II vs Verl · 3. Liga
1 · Hoffenheim II 40%X 25%35% Verl · 2
40%
25%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hoffenheim II vs Verl (3. Liga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Hoffenheim II win 40%, draw 25%, Verl win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Hoffenheim II 1.59, Verl 1.73. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Hoffenheim II or draw 65%, Verl or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hoffenheim II – Verl
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Verl's recent form is a narrative of resilience, standing unbeaten in their last five league fixtures. Their offensive momentum is palpable, having found the net in nine consecutive matches. This attacking tenacity will be critical against Hoffenheim II, who also thrive on possession control. Yet, the hosts have demonstrated a slight edge in both actual points and underlying metrics, such as xG and xGA, pointing to a tighter grip on matches.
Despite Hoffenheim II's superior xG per match at 1.8 compared to Verl's 1.2, Hoffenheim II also hold the edge in points and xPoints, underscoring their slightly stronger underlying form heading into this clash. The historical head-to-head record, albeit a mere two games, shows Verl victorious on both occasions. While this sample is too small to heavily influence predictions, it does suggest that Verl knows how to navigate challenges posed by Hoffenheim II.
The model's probabilities paint a nuanced picture, giving a slight nod to the hosts at 40% likelihood of winning, against Verl's 35%. However, the expected goals are nearly even, with Hoffenheim II at 1.59 and Verl at 1.73, hinting at a closely contested bout. With a model-predicted 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and 66% likelihood of both teams scoring, the game is poised for an engaging encounter with goals from both sides.
For punters, despite the statistical edge leaning towards Hoffenheim II, the market reveals intriguing value on a Verl win. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.6, while LeoVegas lists them at 3.5, all significantly higher than the model's 35% win probability for Verl, indicating a 27% and 23% edge, respectively. This discrepancy presents a potentially lucrative opportunity for those banking on Verl extending their unbeaten streak.
Ultimately, while both sides employ similar possession-based tactics, Verl's current form and offensive consistency could tilt the scales in their favor. Anticipate a narrow 1-2 victory for the visitors, making the over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome, with the betting value clearly resting on a Verl success.
Hoffenheim IIForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #6xP/match #8Points #7
Key players
- Valentin LassigCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
- Natnael AbrahaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
- Klaus GjasulaCDMxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
VerlForm WWDWD
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #15xP/match #19Points #9
Key players
- Niko KijewskiLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
- Nick SeidelCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
- Noah KonigCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hoffenheim II 40% · Draw 25% · Verl 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SC VerlBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,70fair 6,24+7 %
MissMatchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,66fair 7,47-51 %
MissMatch prediction: Hoffenheim II – Verl
Predicted score matrix
Verl →
Hoffenheim II →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–16.0%
0–25.4%
0–33.1%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–05.4%
1–110.2%
1–28.6%
1–35.0%
1–4+3.2%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.9%
2–26.8%
2–34.0%
2–4+2.5%
3
3–02.4%
3–14.2%
3–23.6%
3–32.1%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.4%
4+–22.0%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,59–1,73
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,535%
@3.00EV+2%
Over 2,565%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hoffenheim II or draw (1X)59%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Yasin Zor to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Yasin Zor to score32%
- Joshua Chima Eze to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Verl35% probability@3.70PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
- 2 · Verl35% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- 2 · Verl35% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hoffenheim II | X | 2 · Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betsafe | 1.82 | 3.80 | EV+ 27% 3.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80 | 3.80 | EV+ 22% 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 3.80 | EV+ 27% 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | EV+ 3% 4.15 | EV+ 30% 3.70 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Hoffenheim II win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.94 to 1.83 (−6%).
1-6 %
52 %47 %
1.94 → 1.83
X+11 %
26 %21 %
3.75 → 4.15
2+8 %
28 %23 %
3.44 → 3.70
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHoffenheim II 0Draw 0Verl 2
Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- Verl are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Verl have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hoffenheim II
Verl
Hoffenheim II (14–9)
Verl (12–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim II
Verl
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim II
Verl
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hoffenheim II | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.3 | 7.7 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Hoffenheim II | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 359 | 428 |
| Passes against per match | 252 | 269 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.1 | 26.3 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Hoffenheim II | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| Other | Hoffenheim II | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Lúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (Hoffenheim II) | Timo Schlieck (Verl) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 30 |
| Save % | 69% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen17 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Preussen Münster17 October 2026
- Duisburg – Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
- Meppen – Havelse18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hoffenheim II vs Verl according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim II a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim II 40%, draw 25%, Verl 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hoffenheim II vs Verl?
The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Hoffenheim II and 1.73 for Verl, 3.32 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hoffenheim II or draw (1X) 65%, Verl or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.