01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Meppen to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
3. Liga10°6,7 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
MeppenPossession control1–1
HavelseCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Meppen (50%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.72 (+23 %)
Meppen vs Havelse · 3. Liga
1 · Meppen 50%X 26%24% Havelse · 2
50%
26%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Meppen vs Havelse (3. Liga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Meppen win 50%, draw 26%, Havelse win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Meppen 1.75, Havelse 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Meppen or draw 76%, Havelse or draw 50%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Meppen – Havelse
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains factual errors:
1. It incorrectly claims that the scoreline 1-1 "favors Meppen" — a 1-1 result is a draw, not a win for Meppen. 2. It states a uniform "23% edge" for all three bookmakers, but the facts show LeoVegas offers a 22% edge, not 23%.
Corrected text:
SV Meppen holds the edge going into this clash against SV Havelse, with the model giving the hosts a 50% chance of victory compared to the visitors' 24%. This disparity is underlined by recent form, where Meppen has gathered 10 points compared to Havelse's paltry 4. The home side's control-based style should allow them to dictate play against a Havelse setup more reliant on counter-attacking and crossing.
Meppen’s expected goals metrics tell a compelling story. Averaging 1.6 xG per match, they outshine Havelse’s 0.87, while also maintaining a tighter defense (1.5 xGA vs. Havelse's 2.0). This statistically driven edge aligns with their position as favorites, and the most probable scorelines — 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 — reflect a tightly contested match, with 2-1 and 1-0 favoring Meppen.
However, bettors should pay close attention to a standout value on the market: the under 2.5 goals bet. Despite a 55% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the under has been priced generously. With odds of 2.72 at Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 2.7 at LeoVegas, the model indicates a 45% probability for under 2.5 goals — offering a 23% edge at Betsafe and Nordicbet, and a 22% edge at LeoVegas.
Such a bet is not far-fetched considering Havelse’s recent struggles. They've lost their last three matches, and their offensive inefficiency could keep the scoreline tighter than anticipated. If Havelse's defense manages a disciplined game, the under 2.5 goals play might indeed come through.
In conclusion, while Meppen should edge the game, the real opportunity for punters lies in the value presented by the under 2.5 goals line. Considering the model's assessment, this angle appears underpriced and worth exploring.
MeppenForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #14xP/match #3Points #13
Key players
- Cyrill Elija AkonoFxG 0.52 · xT -0.02
- Thorben-Johannes DetersCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17
- Luca PrasseRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
HavelseForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #20xGA #20xT #19xP/match #18Points #20
Key players
- Kwasi Okyere WriedtFxG 0.34 · xT 0.00
- Robin VelascoRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.26
- Alexander GuiddirFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Meppen 50% · Draw 26% · Havelse 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TSV HavelseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,08fair 15,79-43 %
MissMatchresultat - SV Meppen 1912Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,72fair 6,49-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Meppen – Havelse
Predicted score matrix
Havelse →
Meppen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–16.0%
0–23.5%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.6%
1–111.4%
1–26.2%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.7%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.1%
3–15.7%
3–23.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.7%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,75–1,12
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.72EV+23%
Over 2,555%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Meppen to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Richard Christian Meier to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Richard Christian Meier to score27%
- Leon Sommer to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Meppen | X | 2 · Havelse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.61 | EV+ 3% 3.90 | EV+ 0% 4.20 |
| Betsafe | 1.65 | EV+ 7% 4.05 | 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | EV+ 7% 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | EV+ 7% 4.05 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | EV+ 19% 4.50 | EV+ 1% 4.24 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
59 %54 %
1.64 → 1.67
X+3 %
24 %19 %
4.36 → 4.50
20 %
25 %20 %
4.22 → 4.24
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- SV Havelse have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Meppen
Havelse
Meppen (11–16)
Havelse (10–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Meppen
Havelse
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Meppen
Havelse
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Meppen | Havelse |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 4 |
| xPoints | 14.6 | 8.2 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.87 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.03 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| Playing style | Meppen | Havelse |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 255 | 290 |
| Passes against per match | 371 | 417 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 20.7 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Meppen | Havelse |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| Other | Meppen | Havelse |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Julius Pünt (Meppen) | Omer Hanin (Havelse) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 30 |
| Save % | 61% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen17 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Preussen Münster17 October 2026
- Duisburg – Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
- Hoffenheim II – Verl18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Meppen vs Havelse according to our model?
The model gives Meppen a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Meppen 50%, draw 26%, Havelse 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Meppen vs Havelse?
The model expects 1.75 goals (xG) for Meppen and 1.12 for Havelse, 2.87 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Meppen or draw (1X) 76%, Havelse or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.