01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Duisburg to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
3. Liga10°1,5 mm17 km/h
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DuisburgBalanced & physical1–1
Viktoria KölnPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Duisburg (48%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.68 (+7 %)
Duisburg vs Viktoria Köln · 3. Liga
1 · Duisburg 48%X 27%25% Viktoria Köln · 2
48%
27%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Duisburg vs Viktoria Köln (3. Liga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Duisburg win 48%, draw 27%, Viktoria Köln win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Duisburg 1.88, Viktoria Köln 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Duisburg or draw 75%, Viktoria Köln or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Duisburg – Viktoria Köln
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Duisburg's 48% win probability suggests they have the upper hand against Viktoria Köln, yet both sides are on notable winning streaks, adding intrigue to this matchup. Duisburg has a 78% all-time home win rate, which underscores their fortress-like presence. However, Viktoria Köln’s current form, with four consecutive victories, means they are far from pushovers. This clash pits Duisburg's balanced physicality against the possession-oriented visitors, making for an intriguing tactical battle.
The expected goals tilt in Duisburg's favor at 1.88 compared to Viktoria Köln's 1.17, hinting at a slight edge for the home side. Yet, with both teams scoring in 59% of simulations and a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, goals seem likely despite the expected 3.6 mm of rain, which could dampen attacking fluency. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—don't scream high-scoring affair but suggest competitive tension.
Duisburg's resilience is highlighted by scoring in nine straight league matches, but their head-to-head record against Viktoria Köln since 2024 shows two draws in two matches—a small sample, but significant enough to suggest a tight contest. Viktoria Köln will aim to disrupt Duisburg’s home dominance, leveraging their marginally superior xG per match of 2.1.
Given the model’s prediction and current streaks, a 2-1 victory for Duisburg appears slightly more probable, aligning with their home prowess and current form. The under 3.5 goals offer at odds of 1.62 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a value proposition, given the model's 64% estimation—though the under 2.5 at 2.48 with Betsafe also carries a 3% edge, suggesting potential for cautious bettors looking to capitalize on a tightly contested affair.
DuisburgForm WLWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #11xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Can Beklan CoşkunLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.03
- Peter RemmertFxG 1.05 · xT 0.06
Viktoria KölnForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #12xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Tobias EisenhuthCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
- Lucas WolfLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.04
- Niklas CastelleCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Duisburg 48% · Draw 27% · Viktoria Köln 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MSV DuisburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,87fair 5,66-14 %
MissMatchresultat - Viktoria Köln 1904Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,56fair 14,62-55 %
MissMatch prediction: Duisburg – Viktoria Köln
Predicted score matrix
Viktoria Köln →
Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–15.3%
0–23.2%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.6%
1–110.8%
1–26.1%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.8%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.2%
3–16.1%
3–23.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,88–1,17
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.48EV+3%
Over 2,559%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Duisburg to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score33%
- Tobias Eisenhuth to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.564% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.82PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- Both teams to score: No41% probability@2.50Bet365EV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Duisburg | X | 2 · Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 1% 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.12 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.12 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.10 | EV+ 5% 3.82 | 3.14 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 06:56
Odds movement
10 %
47 %42 %
2.11 → 2.10
X+2 %
27 %22 %
3.76 → 3.82
2+4 %
33 %28 %
3.02 → 3.14
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDuisburg 0Draw 2Viktoria Köln 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- MSV Duisburg have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Viktoria Koln come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- MSV Duisburg win 78% of their home matches all-time (23 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Duisburg
Viktoria Köln
Duisburg (22–9)
Viktoria Köln (24–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Duisburg
Viktoria Köln
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Duisburg
Viktoria Köln
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Duisburg | Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 18 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Duisburg | Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 331 | 493 |
| Passes against per match | 383 | 283 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.6 | 17.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Duisburg | Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| Other | Duisburg | Viktoria Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Maximilian Braune (Duisburg) | Arne Schulz (Viktoria Köln) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 18 |
| Save % | 75% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Wehen Wiesbaden17 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Rot-Weiss Essen17 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Preussen Münster17 October 2026
- Hoffenheim II – Verl18 October 2026
- Meppen – Havelse18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Duisburg vs Viktoria Köln according to our model?
The model gives Duisburg a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Duisburg 48%, draw 27%, Viktoria Köln 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Duisburg vs Viktoria Köln?
The model expects 1.88 goals (xG) for Duisburg and 1.17 for Viktoria Köln, 3.04 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Duisburg or draw (1X) 75%, Viktoria Köln or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.