3. Liga

    Läs på svenska
    Sonnenhof GrossaspachSonnenhof GrossaspachPossession & high press
    3–2
    Preussen MünsterPreussen MünsterPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Sonnenhof Grossaspach (52%)

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Münster · 3. Liga

    1 · Sonnenhof Grossaspach 52%X 22%26% Preussen Münster · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Münster (3. Liga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sonnenhof Grossaspach win 52%, draw 22%, Preussen Münster win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.54, Preussen Münster 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw 74%, Preussen Münster or draw 48%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Preussen Münster

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Grossaspach's 52% win probability is a compelling starting point, especially for bettors seeking stability. The hosts have shown better xPoints (10.6) compared to their visitors (9.7), suggesting they've been slightly unlucky so far. They also generate 1.6 xG per match, a notable margin over Preussen Münster's 1.1, indicating greater attacking potential, even if current league points favor the visitors.

    Despite Preussen Münster sitting higher in the table with 12 points to Grossaspach's 8, the xG numbers tell a different story. The match's most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12%) hints at a close contest, but the slight edge in expected goals for the home side leans towards a 1-0 (10%) or 2-1 (9%) outcome. The over 2.5 goals probability is tight at 52%, just tipping the scales.

    For the sharp bettors, there's value in backing Grossaspach at home with odds of 2.18 available at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, providing a 13% edge according to the model. Alternatively, the under 2.5 goals market presents a possible edge with a 48% probability and odds of 2.3 at Betsafe, despite the over's slim majority.

    Sonnenhof GrossaspachSonnenhof Grossaspach
    Form WDDLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #3xP/match #14Points #18
    Key players
    • Volkan CeliktasCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13
    • Luca Damiano MolinariLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.26
    • Antonis AidonisCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
    Preussen MünsterPreussen Münster
    Form WWDLD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #12xT #20xP/match #15Points #8
    Key players
    • Ryan JohanssonFxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
    • Torge PaetowCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Montell NdikomRWxG 0.58 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    3 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sonnenhof Grossaspach 52% · Draw 22% · Preussen Münster 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,21fair 8,19-36 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Preussen MunsterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,34fair 13,20-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Preussen Münster

    Predicted score matrix

    Preussen Münster →
    Sonnenhof Grossaspach →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.8%
    0–17.4%
    0–24.7%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.2%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.6%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–14.7%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,21
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,548%
    @2.35EV+14%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.57

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sonnenhof Grossaspach to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sonnenhof Grossaspach to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Loris Maier to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Charalambos Makridis to score26%
    • Rico Preißinger to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sonnenhof Grossaspach52% probability@2.30Paddy PowerEV+19%reference odds
    • Under 1.524% probability@5.00Bet365EV+19%reference odds
    • Under 0.57% probability@17.00Bet365EV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sonnenhof GrossaspachX2 · Preussen Münster
    Bet365
    EV+ 11%
    2.15    		3.502.75
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    2.12    		3.552.95
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 10%
    2.12    		3.552.90
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    2.12    		3.552.95
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 19%
    2.30    		3.602.60
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 13%
    2.19    		3.972.88

    Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    46 %41 %

    2.16 → 2.19

    X+2 %
    26 %21 %

    3.89 → 3.97

    2+1 %
    35 %30 %

    2.84 → 2.88

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach
    Preussen Münster
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sonnenhof Grossaspach (7–14)
    Preussen Münster (15–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach
    Volkan Celiktas: 190 passningar, xT 0.56CeliktasMarius Kunde: 182 passningar, xT 0.72KundeLuca Damiano Molinari: 176 passningar, xT 1.09MolinariJan Elias Rahn: 166 passningar, xT 0.67RahnAntonis Aidonis: 145 passningar, xT 0.53AidonisMaximilian Reule: 139 passningar, xT 0.16ReuleLoris Maier: 119 passningar, xT 0.19MaierArbnor Nuraj: 103 passningar, xT 0.16NurajLeon Maier: 90 passningar, xT 0.1MaierNiklas Pollex: 87 passningar, xT 1.15PollexTim Rossmann: 77 passningar, xT 0.28Rossmann
    Preussen Münster
    Antonio Tikvić: 194 passningar, xT 0.32TikvićTorge Paetow: 190 passningar, xT 0.41PaetowMorten Jens Behrens: 182 passningar, xT 0.24BehrensLucas Christopher Zeller: 168 passningar, xT 0.22ZellerNiklas Varelmann: 121 passningar, xT 0.16VarelmannPhilipp Maier: 99 passningar, xT 0.11MaierRyan Johansson: 74 passningar, xT 0.15JohanssonCharalambos Makridis: 64 passningar, xT 0.53MakridisRico Preißinger: 50 passningar, xT 0.01PreißingerFelix Higl: 42 passningar, xT 0.32HiglLouis Philipp Kolbe: 41 passningar, xT 0.4Kolbe
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach
    Volkan Celiktas: 190 passningar, xT 0.56CeliktasMarius Kunde: 182 passningar, xT 0.72KundeLuca Damiano Molinari: 176 passningar, xT 1.09MolinariJan Elias Rahn: 166 passningar, xT 0.67RahnAntonis Aidonis: 145 passningar, xT 0.53AidonisMaximilian Reule: 139 passningar, xT 0.16ReuleLoris Maier: 119 passningar, xT 0.19MaierArbnor Nuraj: 103 passningar, xT 0.16NurajLeon Maier: 90 passningar, xT 0.1MaierNiklas Pollex: 87 passningar, xT 1.15PollexTim Rossmann: 77 passningar, xT 0.28Rossmann
    Preussen Münster
    Antonio Tikvić: 194 passningar, xT 0.32TikvićTorge Paetow: 190 passningar, xT 0.41PaetowMorten Jens Behrens: 182 passningar, xT 0.24BehrensLucas Christopher Zeller: 168 passningar, xT 0.22ZellerNiklas Varelmann: 121 passningar, xT 0.16VarelmannPhilipp Maier: 99 passningar, xT 0.11MaierRyan Johansson: 74 passningar, xT 0.15JohanssonCharalambos Makridis: 64 passningar, xT 0.53MakridisRico Preißinger: 50 passningar, xT 0.01PreißingerFelix Higl: 42 passningar, xT 0.32HiglLouis Philipp Kolbe: 41 passningar, xT 0.4Kolbe

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSonnenhof GrossaspachPreussen Münster
    Points812
    xPoints10.69.7
    xG per match1.61.1
    xGA per match1.81.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.23
    Playing styleSonnenhof GrossaspachPreussen Münster
    Build-up efficiency0.330.26
    Field tilt0.640.39
    xT per match1.40.6
    xTA per match1.40.99
    Won balls, offensive half3126
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.320.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.22
    Entries into the box per match189
    Entries into the box against1611
    Pass completion %0.740.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.68
    Passes per match367278
    Passes against per match315378
    Switches of play per match20.416.3
    Long balls per match3231
    Set piecesSonnenhof GrossaspachPreussen Münster
    xG from free kicks0.040.05
    Corners per match6.23.9
    Corners against per match5.54.5
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.69
    OtherSonnenhof GrossaspachPreussen Münster
    Throw-in control0.710.71
    The goalkeepersMaximilian Reule (Sonnenhof Grossaspach)Morten Jens Behrens (Preussen Münster)
    Saves2716
    Save %68%50%
    xG prevented59%27%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Preussen Münster
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Münster according to our model?

    The model gives Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sonnenhof Grossaspach 52%, draw 22%, Preussen Münster 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Münster?

    The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.21 for Preussen Münster, 2.74 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw (1X) 74%, Preussen Münster or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 78%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Waldhof MannheimWaldhof Mannheim
    2–1
    Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf
    1 36%X 26%2 38%
    The model missed the outcome
    HavelseHavelse
    2–3
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart II
    1 30%X 26%2 44%
    The model called the outcome
    DuisburgDuisburg
    3–0
    MeppenMeppen
    1 75%X 13%2 12%
    The model called the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.