01 · 2 legs
Safe
- CD Guadalajara to win45%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Liga MXEstadio Jalisco, Guadalajara20°9,4 mm6 km/h
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AtlasPossession controlvs
CD GuadalajaraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · CD Guadalajara (45%)
Atlas vs CD Guadalajara · Liga MX
1 · Atlas 27%X 28%45% CD Guadalajara · 2
27%
28%
45%
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Analysis: Atlas – CD Guadalajara
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Club Deportivo Guadalajara enters this matchup with a noticeable edge over Atlas, underscored by their superior model probabilities of 45% to win. The visitors' high press playing style aligns well with their expected goals, which sit at 1.71 compared to the hosts' 1.22. This tactical approach could unsettle Atlas, who rely on possession control to dictate the tempo. The numbers project a closely fought contest, with a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline, estimated at 11%.
Despite Atlas's higher xG per match at 1.4, they concede more chances, reflected in their xGA of 1.6. Conversely, Guadalajara's xGA is a more solid 1.1, suggesting a more robust defense. This defensive resilience could be pivotal, especially given the visitors' knack for converting pressure into goals. The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of five games, is evenly split at two wins apiece, indicating a well-matched rivalry.
The expectation of a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.6 goals per encounter, sets an intriguing stage. Bookmakers have priced the over 2.5 goals at 56%, suggesting an open game. The combination of possession control by Atlas and high pressing from Guadalajara could see both sides finding the back of the net, with a 58% chance of both teams scoring.
For those seeking value, the model's preference for Guadalajara at likely odds can be found at several bookmakers. While no outcome is guaranteed, the visitors' slight edge in both points and expected points could translate into a narrow victory. Therefore, a 1-2 scoreline in favor of Guadalajara, priced around 10% probability, might appeal to those looking to balance risk and reward.
AtlasForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #17xT #15xP/match #16Points #6
Key players
- Florián Gonzalo de Jesús MonzónFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
- Ryan Mmaee A'Nwambeben KabirFxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
- Juan Jose PurataCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
CD GuadalajaraForm DWWDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #1xP/match #12Points #3
Key players
- Bryan GonzalezLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
- Roberto AlvaradoCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
- Ricardo MarinFxG 0.57 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Atlas – CD Guadalajara
Predicted score matrix
CD Guadalajara →
Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–18.8%
0–27.8%
0–34.5%
0–4+2.8%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.5%
1–29.5%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.4%
2
2–04.0%
2–16.8%
2–25.8%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.8%
3–22.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,22–1,71
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.08
Over 2,556%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- CD Guadalajara to win45%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Roberto Carlos Alvarado Hernández to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Roberto Carlos Alvarado Hernández to score29%
- Elías Enrique Montiel Ávalos to be booked20%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atlas | X | 2 · CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 03:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
33 %28 %
3.00 → 3.05
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.40 → 3.40
2+1 %
45 %40 %
2.12 → 2.15
Over 2,5+1 %
57 %52 %
1.67 → 1.68
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesAtlas 2Draw 1CD Guadalajara 2
Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlas
CD Guadalajara
Atlas (16–17)
CD Guadalajara (17–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atlas
CD Guadalajara
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atlas
CD Guadalajara
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atlas | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 18 |
| xPoints | 11.7 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Atlas | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 521 |
| Passes against per match | 312 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 29.3 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Atlas | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| Other | Atlas | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Camilo Vargas (Atlas) | Raul Rangel (CD Guadalajara) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 30 |
| Save % | 64% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atlas vs CD Guadalajara according to our model?
The model gives CD Guadalajara a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlas 27%, draw 28%, CD Guadalajara 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.