01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Cruz Azul or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City19°0,5 mm16 km/h
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Pumas UNAMPossession controlvs
Cruz AzulPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Cruz Azul (42%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.55 (+3 %)
Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul · Liga MX
1 · Pumas UNAM 29%X 29%42% Cruz Azul · 2
29%
29%
42%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Cruz Azul's high press will likely put the hosts under pressure. The visitors have shown a knack for controlling games against possession-heavy teams like Pumas, reflected in both their historical head-to-head advantage and their superior expected goals per match this season. Cruz Azul's 1.67 xG compared to Pumas' 1.31 suggests they have the attacking edge, and their style of play is tailored to exploit any lapses in concentration from possession-focused defenses.
Since 2023, the encounters between these two have averaged 3.2 goals per game, hinting at the potential for an open, attacking matchup. However, with 4.4 mm of rain expected, the conditions could suppress goal-scoring opportunities. Still, the probability for over 2.5 goals sits at 57%, and both teams finding the net is a 60% shot. These numbers provide a compelling case for goals unless the weather has an outsized impact.
The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11%) hints at a closely contested draw, although a 1-2 or 0-1 result also looms prominently in the probabilities. Cruz Azul seems well-placed to take advantage given their higher xPoints (14.1 to Pumas' 11.6) and slightly better defensive metrics, but Pumas’ home advantage should not be discounted entirely.
For those seeking value, the draw offers an intriguing angle. LeoVegas lists it at 3.55, presenting a 3% edge over the model's 29% probability. This looks like a calculated risk worth taking, especially if you suspect the rain might neutralize some of the game’s attacking flair. In a matchup where both strategy and conditions create uncertainty, this bet could well pay dividends.
Pumas UNAMForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #12xP/match #17Points #12
Key players
- Robert MoralesFxG 0.19 · xT 0.04
- Luciano Ramón HerreraLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
- Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Cruz AzulForm WWWLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #2xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Gabriel FernandezFxG 1.02 · xT -0.03
- Nicolás Alejandro IbáñezFxG 0.48 · xT 0.06
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.32
Match prediction: Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul
Predicted score matrix
Cruz Azul →
Pumas UNAM →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–18.2%
0–27.1%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.4%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.4%
1–29.3%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.4%
2–17.3%
2–26.1%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.2%
3–22.7%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,31–1,67
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.22
Over 2,557%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Cruz Azul or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- José Antonio Paradela to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- José Antonio Paradela to score28%
- Israel Luna López to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pumas UNAM | X | 2 · Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.20 | EV+ 0% 3.45 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.10 | EV+ 3% 3.55 | 2.00 |
| Nordicbet | 3.20 | EV+ 0% 3.45 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
10 %
32 %27 %
3.10 → 3.10
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.55 → 3.55
2-1 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.00
Over 2,5+1 %
59 %54 %
1.60 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesPumas UNAM 1Draw 2Cruz Azul 3
Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CD Cruz Azul dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM (14–16)
Cruz Azul (19–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pumas UNAM
Cruz Azul
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 16 |
| xPoints | 11.6 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 346 | 392 |
| Passes against per match | 394 | 303 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.6 | 36.4 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| Other | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM) | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 27 |
| Save % | 63% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Puebla – León10 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Tigres UANL – Deportivo Toluca10 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- FC Juárez – Tijuana11 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Querétaro – Atlante11 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Atlético San Luis – Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- Atlas – CD Guadalajara11 October 2026
- Club América – Monterrey11 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Necaxa12 October 2026 01:15 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pumas UNAM 29%, draw 29%, Cruz Azul 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.