Querétaro vs Atlante Prediction: Home win 49% (10 Oct 2026)

Liga MX11 October 2026 01:00 CESTEstadio Corregidora, Querétaro18°5,0 mm14 km/h

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QuerétaroLow block & direct

AtlanteLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Querétaro (49%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.75 (+1 %)

1 · Querétaro 49%X 27%24% Atlante · 2

49%

27%

24%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Querétaro – Atlante

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Querétaro's offensive thrust sets the stage. Their expected goals (xG) at 1.79 shines a light on a side ready to create opportunities against Atlante. The hosts, driven by their 49% win probability according to the model, have shown a knack for finding the back of the net, evident from their 1.4 xG per match. But caution lurks in their defensive record, as their xGA of 1.6 reveals vulnerabilities that the visitors could exploit.

Atlante, with a modest 24% win probability, leans heavily on their tactical mirror image of low defense and direct play. Though trailing in points, Atlante's xPoints suggest a team that might have been slightly shortchanged by fortune. Their xGA of 1.5 hints at a defense only marginally more stable than Querétaro's, suggesting that this clash may hinge on who can better seize offensive chances.

As rain is expected to blanket the pitch with 7.6 mm of drizzle, it could dampen the attacking dynamism of both sides, a consideration already factored into the model's numbers. Yet the metrics suggest a decent chance for goals, with a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score. The conditions might nudge the narrative towards a more scrappy affair, but the attacking intent of both sides will likely prevail.

With the model favoring a narrow victory for the hosts, a 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most likely outcome, with 2-1 and 1-0 also in the mix. The limited head-to-head sample offers little to sway this expectation. In betting terms, the over 2.5 goals market holds intrigue. While the edge is negligible, the 1.727 odds with LeoVegas echo the model's lean. It could be the sharpest angle in a matchup tempered by rain yet driven by attacking resolve.

Querétaro

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #8xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Ali AvilaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.07
Mateo Agustín CoronelCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.14
Santiago HomenchenkoCDMxG 0.29 · xT 0.19

Atlante

Form DDLDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #16xP/match #6Points #14

Key players

Martín Nicolás SarrafioreFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Jhojan JulioFxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Luis Fernando Puente PradoFxG 0.42 · xT -0.04

Match prediction: Querétaro – Atlante

Predicted score matrix

Atlante →

Querétaro →

0–05.2%

0–15.7%

0–23.7%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.5%

1–111.1%

1–26.6%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.9%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.7%

3–15.8%

3–23.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.9%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,79–1,22

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@1.95

Over 2,558%

@1.75EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Querétaro to win49%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Querétaro to win49%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Mateo Agustín Coronel to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Mateo Agustín Coronel to score25%
Santiago Damián Homenchenko Bianchi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.558% probability@1.75LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Querétaro	X	2 · Atlante
LeoVegas	1.98	3.45	3.40

Odds updated 4 Oct, 01:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

49 %44 %

1.95 → 1.98

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.45

2+3 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.40

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.73 → 1.75

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Querétaro

Atlante

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Querétaro (13–8)

Atlante (12–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Querétaro

Atlante

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Querétaro

Atlante

The teams in numbers

Performance	Querétaro	Atlante
Points	17	11
xPoints	13.7	14.8
xG per match	1.4	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.22

Playing style	Querétaro	Atlante
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.4	0.44
xT per match	1.1	0.84
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	17	14
Pass completion %	0.69	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.65
Passes per match	232	267
Passes against per match	418	407
Switches of play per match	17.6	18.3
Long balls per match	31	25

Set pieces	Querétaro	Atlante
xG from free kicks	0.05	0
Corners per match	4.6	4.3
Corners against per match	7.5	6.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.56

Other	Querétaro	Atlante
Throw-in control	0.61	0.67

The goalkeepers	Guillermo Allison (Querétaro)	Oscar Jimenez (Atlante)
Saves	31	40
Save %	82%	73%
xG prevented	52%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Querétaro

Fixtures, form & tips

Atlante

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Querétaro vs Atlante according to our model?

The model gives Querétaro a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Querétaro 49%, draw 27%, Atlante 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.