01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tijuana to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Liga MXEstadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juárez22°28 km/h
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FC JuárezPossession controlvs
TijuanaLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Tijuana (50%)
FC Juárez vs Tijuana · Liga MX
1 · FC Juárez 23%X 27%50% Tijuana · 2
23%
27%
50%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: FC Juárez – Tijuana
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
A glaring 50% model probability for Tijuana to secure victory against Juárez sets the stage for this Liga MX clash. The visitors not only hold a historical edge in their limited head-to-head meetings — with two wins to one for Tijuana in just five matches — but they also lead decisively in both actual and expected metrics this season. Tijuana's 14 points dwarf the hosts' meager 3, while their xPoints of 16.4 significantly outperform Juárez's 9.2. This isn't merely a statistical advantage; it's a pattern.
Juárez faces a robust Tijuana side that excels in a low defensive setup, countering the hosts' possession-oriented style. With an xG per match of 1.8 against Juárez's 0.88, the visitors are more threatening in attack. Couple that with Juárez's defensively frail xGA of 2.1, and the scales tip heavily toward Tijuana. Though the most likely scoreline suggests a close affair, the underlying numbers argue otherwise.
For the sharp-eyed bettor, LeoVegas offers Tijuana at odds of 2.25, translating to a 13% edge over the model's 50% assessment. It's a prime opportunity in a match that appears set for a 0-1 or 1-2 outcome. Tijuana's form and metrics suggest they should control the game's narrative, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals.
FC JuárezForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #17xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.51 · xT 0.03
- Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Jose Luis RodriguezLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
TijuanaForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #6xP/match #1Points #8
Key players
- Adonis PreciadoLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.32
- Ignacio RiveroRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.01
- Gilberto MoraCAMxG 1.01 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: FC Juárez – Tijuana
Predicted score matrix
Tijuana →
FC Juárez →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–110.1%
0–28.7%
0–34.9%
0–4+3.0%
1
1–06.5%
1–111.8%
1–29.6%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.3%
2
2–03.8%
2–16.3%
2–25.3%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.3%
3–22.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,10–1,68
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.00
Over 2,553%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tijuana to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gilberto Rafael Mora Zambrano to score26%
- Denzell Arturo García Bojórquez to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tijuana50% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Tijuana50% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Tijuana50% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Juárez | X | 2 · Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.40 | EV+ 13% 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85 | 3.35 | EV+ 13% 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.40 | EV+ 13% 2.25 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 01:36
Odds movement
10 %
34 %29 %
2.85 → 2.85
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.35
20 %
43 %38 %
2.25 → 2.25
Over 2,50 %
56 %51 %
1.73 → 1.73
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFC Juárez 1Draw 2Tijuana 2
Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Club Tijuana dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Juárez
Tijuana
FC Juárez (7–25)
Tijuana (14–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Tijuana
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Juárez
Tijuana
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Juárez | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 14 |
| xPoints | 9.2 | 16.4 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | FC Juárez | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 297 | 318 |
| Passes against per match | 424 | 416 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.7 | 35.1 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 42 |
| Set pieces | FC Juárez | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 7.6 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| Other | FC Juárez | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez) | Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 46 | 34 |
| Save % | 67% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Club América – Monterrey11 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Necaxa12 October 2026 01:15 CEST
- Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul12 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Juárez vs Tijuana according to our model?
The model gives Tijuana a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Juárez 23%, draw 27%, Tijuana 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.