01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Atlético San Luis to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Liga MXEstadio Alfonso Lastras, San Luis Potosí17°0,9 mm14 km/h
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Atlético San LuisCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Atlético San Luis (50%)
Atlético San Luis vs Santos Laguna · Liga MX
1 · Atlético San Luis 50%X 26%24% Santos Laguna · 2
50%
26%
24%
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Analysis: Atlético San Luis – Santos Laguna
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Three straight wins for Santos Laguna suggest they bring momentum into their clash against Atlético San Luis, but the numbers tell a more layered story. The hosts find themselves favored by the model at a 50% win probability, with a slight edge in points (12 to 10) and xPoints (13.5 to 11.8). It's a classic case of form versus foundational metrics, and the home side's tactical edge on expected goals against (1.3 vs 1.6) could be decisive.
Despite San Luis's favorable head-to-head record since 2023—three wins and a draw—it's a small sample that loses weight against current trends. The expected goals suggest a more competitive matchup, with San Luis at 1.84 and Santos at 1.30. Both teams favor counter attacking and crossing, potentially leading to a tactical stalemate with limited clear chances.
Bettors might find value in the over 2.5 goals market, given its 61% probability, reflecting the model's anticipation of an open game. The likeliest outcomes hover around 1-1 and 2-1, indicating a tilt towards San Luis in a closely contested affair, aligning with both the model's lean and their slightly superior metrics.
Atlético San LuisForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #14xP/match #10Points #13
Key players
- Rafael Nicolas Llorente SanzFxG 0.30 · xT 0.05
- Sebastien Salles LamongeCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
- David RodriguezRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
Santos LagunaForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #4xP/match #15Points #16
Key players
- Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.29
- Kevin Alexander Palacios SalazarRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
- Ezequiel Eduardo BullaudeCAMxG 0.34 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Atlético San Luis – Santos Laguna
Predicted score matrix
Santos Laguna →
Atlético San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–15.3%
0–23.7%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–07.7%
1–110.7%
1–26.7%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.5%
2–26.2%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.5%
3–15.8%
3–23.8%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–14.1%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,84–1,30
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.18
Over 2,561%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Atlético San Luis to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Luis Ronaldo Nájera Reyna to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Luis Ronaldo Nájera Reyna to score33%
- Franco Emanuel Pardo to be booked20%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atlético San Luis | X | 2 · Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 17:36
Odds movement
10 %
50 %45 %
1.91 → 1.91
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.50 → 3.50
20 %
29 %24 %
3.40 → 3.40
Over 2,50 %
61 %56 %
1.55 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAtlético San Luis 3Draw 1Santos Laguna 0
Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Santos Laguna come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atlético San Luis
Santos Laguna
Atlético San Luis (14–18)
Santos Laguna (10–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Santos Laguna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atlético San Luis
Santos Laguna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 10 |
| xPoints | 13.5 | 11.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 424 | 382 |
| Passes against per match | 368 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.6 | 35.8 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 2.8 | 7.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.5 |
| Other | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Andres Sanchez (Atlético San Luis) | Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 47 |
| Save % | 66% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Puebla – León10 October 2026 03:00 CEST
- Tigres UANL – Deportivo Toluca10 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- FC Juárez – Tijuana11 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Querétaro – Atlante11 October 2026 01:00 CEST
- Atlas – CD Guadalajara11 October 2026
- Club América – Monterrey11 October 2026 05:00 CEST
- Pachuca – Necaxa12 October 2026 01:15 CEST
- Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul12 October 2026 03:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atlético San Luis vs Santos Laguna according to our model?
The model gives Atlético San Luis a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético San Luis 50%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.