01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Pachuca to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Liga MXEstadio Hidalgo, Pachuca16°5,0 mm13 km/h
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PachucaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
NecaxaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Pachuca (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+1 %)
Pachuca vs Necaxa · Liga MX
1 · Pachuca 53%X 26%21% Necaxa · 2
53%
26%
21%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Pachuca – Necaxa
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: The numbers suggest a lean towards Pachuca, with a 53% probability of victory and a historical dominance in head-to-heads. But dig deeper, and the upcoming clash with Necaxa reveals intriguing nuances. While the hosts have had the upper hand, winning five out of seven recent encounters, the visitors come with a style that emphasizes possession control, contrasting sharply with Pachuca's preference for counter-attacks and crosses.
Necaxa's recent form is concerning, having lost three consecutive matches. This slump could tilt the balance even further towards the home side. However, the expected goals (xG) paint a different picture, with Necaxa slightly ahead at 1.6 xG per match compared to Pachuca's 1.3. This suggests that Necaxa has the potential to create more scoring opportunities, even as they struggle to convert them into results.
The probability of a draw sits at 26%, and with odds of 3.9 at LeoVegas, the draw presents a potential value bet, albeit with a modest edge. While Pachuca shows a slight edge in actual points, Necaxa's higher xPoints underline their ability to control games and hints at the possibility of a surprise result if they can break their losing streak.
Historically, this fixture delivers goals, averaging 3.9 per meeting, and the over 2.5 goals market is favored at 57%. The model also suggests a 58% likelihood of both teams finding the net, aligning with the attacking styles on display.
With Pachuca likely to exploit counter-attacks and crosses, expect a tight contest, possibly edged by the hosts. A 2-1 win for Pachuca seems plausible, yet the draw at 3.9 with LeoVegas offers a tempting angle for those looking to capitalize on the slight edge in model predictions.
PachucaForm DWWDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #5xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Salomon RondonFxG 0.63 · xT 0.02
- Oussama IdrissiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
- Christian RiveraCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
NecaxaForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #9xP/match #11Points #17
Key players
- Julián Simón CarranzaFxG 0.75 · xT 0.05
- Ricardo MonrealRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Daniel Ulises LeyvaCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Pachuca – Necaxa
Predicted score matrix
Necaxa →
Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.6%
0–23.5%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.9%
1–111.1%
1–26.3%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.7%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.1%
3–15.9%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.5%
4+–14.0%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,81–1,17
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.18
Over 2,557%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Pachuca to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- José Salomón Rondón Giménez to score28%
- Kaiky Marques Naves to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw26% probability@3.90LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pachuca | X | 2 · Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.65 |
| LeoVegas | 1.61 | EV+ 1% 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.65 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesPachuca 5Draw 2Necaxa 0
Goals: 18–9 (⌀ 3,9)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF Pachuca dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.9 goals per meeting on average.
- Club Necaxa have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pachuca
Necaxa
Pachuca (15–11)
Necaxa (12–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pachuca
Necaxa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pachuca
Necaxa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 8 |
| xPoints | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 339 |
| Passes against per match | 382 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.9 | 30.7 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.42 |
| Other | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Carlos Moreno (Pachuca) | Luis Ronaldo Jiménez González (Necaxa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 35 |
| Save % | 76% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pachuca vs Necaxa according to our model?
The model gives Pachuca a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pachuca 53%, draw 26%, Necaxa 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.