01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance León or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Liga MXEstadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla16°8,4 mm10 km/h
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PueblaLow block & directvs
LeónPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · León (38%)Soft draw
Puebla vs León · Liga MX
1 · Puebla 33%X 29%38% León · 2
33%
29%
38%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Puebla – León
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The clash between Puebla and León presents an intriguing stylistic contrast that could define the match. The hosts lean on a low defensive block and direct football, often looking to strike quickly in transition. In contrast, León's game revolves around possession control, aiming to dominate the ball and patiently build attacks. This setup often results in a tense battle for control, with Puebla likely to concede possession and focus on counter-attacking opportunities.
Model probabilities slightly favor León with a 38% chance of victory against Puebla's 33%, but the predicted close scorelines suggest a tight affair. The most likely outcomes of 1-1 and 0-1 reflect a balanced contest, underlined by León's consistent scoring run—netting in their last eight league matches. Despite this, both teams' xG numbers indicate that clear-cut chances may be limited, with Puebla at 0.95 and León at 1.3 per match.
Statistically, León has a slight edge in points this season, yet the xPoints tell a different story, suggesting Puebla should be right on par with their rivals. The expected goals model paints a picture of marginal superiority for León in attack, though both teams share identical defensive fragility with 1.3 xGA per game. This parity underscores the potential for a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for either side.
Considering the expected rain, which typically dampens goal-scoring probabilities, the under 2.5 goals market offers the sharpest betting angle. With odds at 1.92 on LeoVegas, it's priced with a 52% likelihood by the model—matching the statistical forecast. While not a value (EV+) opportunity due to the absence of an edge, the setup aligns with the broader expectation of a cautious and closely contested match.
PueblaForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #8xT #18xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Kevin VelascoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.17
- Eduardo Mustre TorresFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
- Ignacio Daniel Maestro PuchFxG 0.22 · xT -0.01
LeónForm DLWDW
League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #10xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Diber CambindoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Daniel Felipe Arcila RojasLWxG 0.40 · xT 0.20
- Ivan MorenoRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Puebla – León
Predicted score matrix
León →
Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–19.9%
0–27.1%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.8%
1–112.9%
1–28.6%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.6%
2–25.2%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.1%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,22–1,37
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.90
Over 2,548%
@1.92
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance León or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Rodrigo Eduardo Echeverría Sáez to score15%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges to score17%
- Alejandro Organista Orozco to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Puebla | X | 2 · León |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.29 | 2.45 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 18:01
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPuebla 1Draw 1León 2
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- Club Leon FC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Puebla
León
Puebla (11–12)
León (14–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Puebla
León
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Puebla
León
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 17 |
| xPoints | 13.9 | 13.8 |
| xG per match | 0.95 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 289 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 438 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.9 | 28.2 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| Other | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Gutierrez (Puebla) | Oscar Garcia (León) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 28 |
| Save % | 76% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Puebla vs León according to our model?
The model gives León a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Puebla 33%, draw 29%, León 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.