01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Club América to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Liga MXEstadio Azteca, Mexico City17°2,2 mm2 km/h
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Club AméricaPossession & high pressvs
MonterreyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Club América (57%)
Club América vs Monterrey · Liga MX
1 · Club América 57%X 22%21% Monterrey · 2
57%
22%
21%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Club América – Monterrey
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The clash between Club América and Monterrey is set to unfold with the hosts as the clear favorites. América's consistent scoring streak—netting in 11 consecutive league matches—combined with their formidable home record, winning 65% of their matches, gives them a distinct edge. Despite Monterrey's ability to maintain possession, América's high press could disrupt their rhythm and create opportunities.
The numbers align well with América's attacking prowess. Their expected goals per match stand at 1.9, showcasing their ability to penetrate defenses. Meanwhile, Monterrey's xG of 1.6 indicates a solid but less threatening attack. The expected goals against is tighter, with Monterrey slightly edging América. However, the real battleground will be how América's offensive firepower faces off against Monterrey's defensive setup.
Historically, América has dominated this fixture, winning four of the eight encounters since 2023. This head-to-head record, while helpful, should be secondary to current form and metrics like xPoints, which slightly favor América at 15.0 compared to Monterrey's 14.6. The probability model gives América a 57% chance of victory, underlining their dominance in this matchup.
In terms of betting angles, the sharpest value lies in backing América at home with LeoVegas offering odds of 1.8. The model rates this a solid 2% edge. The over 2.5 goals market at 57% probability also presents intrigue, yet the most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—suggest a lean towards a tighter game. Expect América to edge this one, potentially with a 2-1 scoreline.
Club AméricaForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #7xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Brian RodriguezLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.28
- Kevin AlvarezLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.30
- Alan CervantesCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
MonterreyForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Diego Martín Rossi MarachlianFxG 0.51 · xT 0.16
- Hugo Jean-Marc CuypersFxG 0.27 · xT 0.00
- Oliver TorresCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.36
Match prediction: Club América – Monterrey
Predicted score matrix
Monterrey →
Club América →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–15.8%
0–23.7%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.9%
1–111.2%
1–26.5%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.7%
2–25.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.7%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,77–1,19
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.18
Over 2,557%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Club América to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Henry Josué Martín Mex to score34%
- Fidel Daniel Ambríz González to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Club América57% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Club América57% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Club América57% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Club América | X | 2 · Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:04
Odds movement
10 %
53 %48 %
1.80 → 1.80
X+1 %
28 %23 %
3.55 → 3.60
2+1 %
26 %21 %
3.80 → 3.85
Over 2,5+4 %
61 %56 %
1.55 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesClub América 4Draw 2Monterrey 2
Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CF America dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- CF America have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- CF America win 65% of their home matches all-time (46 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Club América
Monterrey
Club América (21–10)
Monterrey (16–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Club América
Monterrey
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Club América
Monterrey
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Club América | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 13 |
| xPoints | 15 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Club América | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.77 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 417 |
| Passes against per match | 295 | 287 |
| Switches of play per match | 42.5 | 37.2 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Club América | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.6 |
| Other | Club América | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Rodolfo Cota (Club América) | Luis Cardenas (Monterrey) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 13 |
| Save % | 74% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 63% | 22% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Club América vs Monterrey according to our model?
The model gives Club América a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Club América 57%, draw 22%, Monterrey 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.