Liga Portugal 221°15 km/h

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    AcademicaAcademica
    0–3
    Benfica BBenfica B
    The model's lean: 1 · Academica (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Benfica B @ 3.05 (+2 %)

    Academica vs Benfica B · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Academica 40%X 27%33% Benfica B · 2

    Analysis: Academica – Benfica B

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Academica's 40% win probability stands out in this Liga Portugal 2 clash, suggesting a potential edge over Benfica B. The hosts are slightly favored by the model, which tips towards a narrow Academica victory. Meanwhile, Benfica B holds a 33% chance of taking the win, leaving a draw at 27%. Despite being relatively balanced, the model leans toward a home triumph, implying some value on Academica, but only if you're willing to back the marginal favorite.

    Academica's expected goals of 1.51 hint at a slight attacking edge, with an anticipated 1.18 for the visitors. The numbers suggest a tight match, likely leaning towards a 1-0 or 2-1 outcome in favor of the hosts. While the 1-1 draw remains the most probable single scoreline at 12%, the model indicates a slight tilt towards Academica, suggesting value in backing the home side.

    The over/under 2.5 goals market sits at a balanced 50%, with both teams to score at 54%. While these metrics don't provide a decisive angle, the slight edge in expected goals for Academica could sway the outcome in their favor. Keep an eye on the odds for a home win, as they might offer value in this closely contested fixture.

    AcademicaAcademica
    Form WWLL
    Key players
    • Hélder Filipe Oliveira LopesLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
    • Leandro Pereira Da SilvaCDMxG 0.23 · xT 0.24
    • Afonso RodriguesRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.01
    Benfica BBenfica B
    Form LWWLL
    Key players
    • Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraCAMxG 0.86 · xT 0.18
    • Francisco Bernardes Freitas NetoLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
    • Joao FonsecaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Academica 40% · Draw 27% · Benfica B 33%

    Match prediction: Academica – Benfica B

    Predicted score matrix

    Benfica B →
    Academica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.1%
    0–17.6%
    0–24.7%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–112.4%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.7%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–14.6%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,51–1,18
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.01
    Over 2,550%
    @1.82

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Academica or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.99

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Academica or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Martim Miguel Carneiro Tavares to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Eduardo Nunes Fernandes to score23%
    • Miguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Benfica B33% probability@3.05PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AcademicaX2 · Benfica B
    Pinnacle2.293.45
    EV+ 2%
    3.05

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.82 (−10%).

    1-3 %
    46 %36 %

    2.35 → 2.29

    X+8 %
    33 %23 %

    3.20 → 3.45

    2-1 %
    36 %26 %

    3.07 → 3.05

    Over 2,5-10 %
    55 %45 %

    2.02 → 1.82

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Academica
    Benfica B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Academica (4–6)
    Benfica B (3–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Academica
    Leandro Pereira Da Silva: 164 passningar, xT 0.94SilvaRicardo Jorge Martins Teixeira: 147 passningar, xT 0.29TeixeiraGabriel Miranda Rodrigues: 135 passningar, xT 0.68RodriguesCarlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves: 76 passningar, xT 0.12AlvesHélder Filipe Oliveira Lopes: 69 passningar, xT 0.46LopesAlioune Badara Mané: 55 passningar, xT 0.69ManéMarcos Paulo: 53 passningar, xT 0.25PauloCarlos Eduardo Ferreira Batista: 49 passningar, xT 0.06BatistaJean Carlos Sinisterra Angulo: 46 passningar, xT 0.07AnguloAfonso Rodrigues: 37 passningar, xT 0.04RodriguesHugo Miguel Zagal Nunes: 25 passningar, xT -0.01Nunes
    Benfica B
    Joao Fonseca: 230 passningar, xT 0.63FonsecaGabriel Indio: 147 passningar, xT 0.1IndioNuno Felix: 147 passningar, xT 0.26FelixJoão Maria Ornelas e Vasconcelos Capucho: 122 passningar, xT 0.48CapuchoMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 95 passningar, xT -0.06FigueiredoDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira: 85 passningar, xT 0.06FerreiraDuarte Maria Loureiro Leal Soares: 71 passningar, xT 0.57SoaresDaniel Armando Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui: 69 passningar, xT 0.1BanjaquiRafael José Mestre Quintas: 57 passningar, xT 0.11QuintasTiago Dias Freitas: 50 passningar, xT 0.23FreitasFrancisco Bernardes Freitas Neto: 46 passningar, xT 0.2Neto
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Academica
    Leandro Pereira Da Silva: 164 passningar, xT 0.94SilvaRicardo Jorge Martins Teixeira: 147 passningar, xT 0.29TeixeiraGabriel Miranda Rodrigues: 135 passningar, xT 0.68RodriguesCarlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves: 76 passningar, xT 0.12AlvesHélder Filipe Oliveira Lopes: 69 passningar, xT 0.46LopesAlioune Badara Mané: 55 passningar, xT 0.69ManéMarcos Paulo: 53 passningar, xT 0.25PauloCarlos Eduardo Ferreira Batista: 49 passningar, xT 0.06BatistaJean Carlos Sinisterra Angulo: 46 passningar, xT 0.07AnguloAfonso Rodrigues: 37 passningar, xT 0.04RodriguesHugo Miguel Zagal Nunes: 25 passningar, xT -0.01Nunes
    Benfica B
    Joao Fonseca: 230 passningar, xT 0.63FonsecaGabriel Indio: 147 passningar, xT 0.1IndioNuno Felix: 147 passningar, xT 0.26FelixJoão Maria Ornelas e Vasconcelos Capucho: 122 passningar, xT 0.48CapuchoMiguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo: 95 passningar, xT -0.06FigueiredoDiogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira: 85 passningar, xT 0.06FerreiraDuarte Maria Loureiro Leal Soares: 71 passningar, xT 0.57SoaresDaniel Armando Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui: 69 passningar, xT 0.1BanjaquiRafael José Mestre Quintas: 57 passningar, xT 0.11QuintasTiago Dias Freitas: 50 passningar, xT 0.23FreitasFrancisco Bernardes Freitas Neto: 46 passningar, xT 0.2Neto
    The goalkeepersCarlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves (Academica)Diogo José de Nazaré e Jesus Ferreira (Benfica B)
    Saves1016
    Save %91%89%
    xG prevented43%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Academica
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Benfica B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Academica vs Benfica B according to our model?

    The model gives Academica a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Academica 40%, draw 27%, Benfica B 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

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    AcadémicaAcadémica
    1 41%X 28%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    PenafielPenafiel
    0–1
    PortimonensePortimonense
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VizelaVizela
    1–0
    União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria
    1 39%X 30%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.