Liga Portugal 221°19 km/h

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    TorreenseTorreense
    0–0
    LeixõesLeixões
    The model's lean: 1 · Torreense (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.63 (+6 %)

    Torreense vs Leixões · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Torreense 45%X 29%25% Leixões · 2

    Analysis: Torreense – Leixões

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly split, with Torreense and Leixões each taking a win, and two matches ending in draws. However, with only four encounters in the books, this small sample size shouldn't overshadow the current form and tactical tendencies. Torreense's recent home performances have been bolstered by their ability to maintain defensive solidity while capitalizing on swift counterattacks, a formula that could prove effective against Leixões' sometimes vulnerable back line.

    Leixões, on the other hand, will look to disrupt Torreense's rhythm by pressing high and seeking opportunities in transition. While they hold a reasonable 25% chance of snatching a win, their expected goals suggest they'll need to be clinical with the few chances likely to come their way. The model leans towards Torreense as the most probable winner, with 1-1 emerging as the single most likely scoreline at 13%, followed by a 1-0 home win. With a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, the market sense leans slightly under, hinting at a potentially tight affair.

    For those eyeing value, Bet365 offers a tempting 1-0 Torreense win at odds that could be more favorable than the market consensus. With Torreense's defensive discipline and home advantage, this scenario aligns well with the model's predictions. Keep an eye on the odds as kickoff approaches, as the hosts' tactical stability might just tip the scales in their favor.

    TorreenseTorreense
    Form WLDLW
    Key players
    • Ianique dos Santos TavaresCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
    • Alejandro Alfaro CascalesCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
    • David BrunoLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.46
    LeixõesLeixões
    Form LWLWW
    Key players
    • Simão Pedro Soares AzevedoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.35
    • Bryan Giovanni Róchez MejíaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.04
    • Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Torreense 45% · Draw 29% · Leixões 25%

    Match prediction: Torreense – Leixões

    Predicted score matrix

    Leixões →
    Torreense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–18.1%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–112.8%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–19.1%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,05
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.96EV+5%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.86

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Torreense to win45%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Torreense to win45%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Manuel Pozo Guerrero to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Manuel Pozo Guerrero to score21%
    • Matheus de Mello Costa to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TorreenseX2 · Leixões
    Pinnacle2.11
    EV+ 6%
    3.63    		3.28

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.13 → 2.11

    X+2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.57 → 3.63

    2+4 %
    32 %27 %

    3.16 → 3.28

    Over 2,5+2 %
    54 %49 %

    1.82 → 1.86

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Torreense 1Draw 2Leixões 1
    Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Torreense
    Leixões
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Torreense (5–7)
    Leixões (8–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Torreense
    Alejandro Alfaro Cascales: 169 passningar, xT 0.18CascalesVolnei Feltes: 161 passningar, xT 0.29FeltesIanique dos Santos Tavares: 121 passningar, xT 0.55TavaresAmine Mehdi Oudrhiri Idrissi: 121 passningar, xT 0.16IdrissiAdriel Vasconcelos Ramos: 94 passningar, xT -1.92RamosDany Jean: 82 passningar, xT 0.18JeanJavi Vazquez: 77 passningar, xT 0.66VazquezDavid Bruno: 76 passningar, xT 1.03BrunoJuan María Alcedo Serrano: 65 passningar, xT 0.29SerranoMohamed Ali Diadie: 62 passningar, xT 0.71DiadieJonathan Mutombo Mawesi: 61 passningar, xT 0.13Mawesi
    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 201 passningar, xT 0.15CostaAmadu Balde: 197 passningar, xT 0.01BaldeLourenco Henriques: 138 passningar, xT 0.04HenriquesCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 138 passningar, xT 0.46AraújoHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 126 passningar, xT 0.1FariaRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 120 passningar, xT 0.59BarbosaPaulo Sérgio Mota: 120 passningar, xT 0.28MotaSerif Nhaga: 69 passningar, xT 0.04NhagaIgor Stefanovic: 67 passningar, xT 0.07StefanovicSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 61 passningar, xT 0.15Agra
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Torreense
    Alejandro Alfaro Cascales: 169 passningar, xT 0.18CascalesVolnei Feltes: 161 passningar, xT 0.29FeltesIanique dos Santos Tavares: 121 passningar, xT 0.55TavaresAmine Mehdi Oudrhiri Idrissi: 121 passningar, xT 0.16IdrissiAdriel Vasconcelos Ramos: 94 passningar, xT -1.92RamosDany Jean: 82 passningar, xT 0.18JeanJavi Vazquez: 77 passningar, xT 0.66VazquezDavid Bruno: 76 passningar, xT 1.03BrunoJuan María Alcedo Serrano: 65 passningar, xT 0.29SerranoMohamed Ali Diadie: 62 passningar, xT 0.71DiadieJonathan Mutombo Mawesi: 61 passningar, xT 0.13Mawesi
    Leixões
    Matheus de Mello Costa: 201 passningar, xT 0.15CostaAmadu Balde: 197 passningar, xT 0.01BaldeLourenco Henriques: 138 passningar, xT 0.04HenriquesCláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo: 138 passningar, xT 0.46AraújoHugo Miguel Lourido Faria: 126 passningar, xT 0.1FariaRafael Avelino Pereira Pinto Barbosa: 120 passningar, xT 0.59BarbosaPaulo Sérgio Mota: 120 passningar, xT 0.28MotaSerif Nhaga: 69 passningar, xT 0.04NhagaIgor Stefanovic: 67 passningar, xT 0.07StefanovicSimão Pedro Soares Azevedo: 62 passningar, xT 0.81AzevedoSalvador José Milhazes Agra: 61 passningar, xT 0.15Agra
    The goalkeepersAdriel Vasconcelos Ramos (Torreense)Igor Stefanovic (Leixões)
    Saves118
    Save %61%57%
    xG prevented36%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Torreense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Leixões
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Torreense vs Leixões according to our model?

    The model gives Torreense a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Torreense 45%, draw 29%, Leixões 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.