Liga Portugal 224°11 km/h

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    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    1–2
    PenafielPenafiel
    The model's lean: 1 · Felgueiras (45%)

    Felgueiras vs Penafiel · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Felgueiras 45%X 30%25% Penafiel · 2

    Analysis: Felgueiras – Penafiel

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Felgueiras enter this contest as the model's preferred team, having a 45% chance of winning against Penafiel. The numbers paint a picture of a narrow advantage for the hosts — a truth that is further reinforced by the fact that Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer attractive odds of 2.28 for a home win. This represents a 3% edge according to the model, suggesting value for those backing Felgueiras.

    Penafiel, however, are no pushovers, riding a wave of three consecutive victories and boasting a streak of scoring in ten straight league matches. Their recent form could pose a significant challenge to Felgueiras, who are slightly favored by expected goals (1.36 to Penafiel's 0.96). Yet, the visitors’ prolific scoring run indicates they might still find the net, making a low-scoring draw like 1-1 all the more plausible — indeed, it shares the most likely scoreline projection at 13% with a 1-0 Felgueiras victory.

    With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 41% and both teams to score at 46%, the numbers lean toward a cautious affair. While Felgueiras hold the slight upper hand in this matchup, the small sample size of four head-to-head matches since 2023 sees the hosts with one win, one draw, and two losses against Penafiel. This uncertainty tempers the apparent edge for Felgueiras, suggesting a closely contested game.

    In conclusion, while Felgueiras may have the statistical nod, the dynamic form of Penafiel adds a layer of unpredictability. For those seeking value, the odds for a home win at 2.28 present a tangible opportunity, especially against the backdrop of Felgueiras’ favored status according to the model. This match promises to be a subtle clash of form versus numbers, with value hunters having their eyes on the hosts.

    FelgueirasFelgueiras
    Form DDDWL
    Key players
    • Mario Rivas ViondiFxG 0.29 · xT 0.06
    • Henrique Manuel Neiva de Almeida MartinsFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Michel CostaCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
    PenafielPenafiel
    Form WLWWW
    Key players
    • João Gonçalo Teixeira PintoRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.12
    • Max Svensson RíoLWxG 0.50 · xT 0.17
    • Miguel OliveiraUnknownxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Felgueiras 45% · Draw 30% · Penafiel 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Felgueiras 1932Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,65fair 11,41-15 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC PenafielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,33fair 22,45-41 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Felgueiras – Penafiel

    Predicted score matrix

    Penafiel →
    Felgueiras →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.2%
    0–19.1%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.0%
    1–113.2%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.1%
    2–18.7%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–13.9%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,36–0,96
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @1.55
    Over 2,541%
    @2.30

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Felgueiras or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Mario Rivas Viondi to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Mario Rivas Viondi to score24%
    • Pedro Miguel Cunha Sá to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Felgueiras45% probability@2.28BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FelgueirasX2 · Penafiel
    Betsafe
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 3%
    2.28    		2.953.15
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 9%
    2.42    		3.073.24

    Odds updated 12 Sept, 12:23

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    42 %37 %

    2.37 → 2.42

    X0 %
    33 %28 %

    3.06 → 3.07

    2+2 %
    32 %27 %

    3.17 → 3.24

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Felgueiras 1Draw 1Penafiel 2
    Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Penafiel come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Penafiel have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Felgueiras
    Penafiel
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Felgueiras (4–4)
    Penafiel (9–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Filipe Cruz: 124 passningar, xT 0.49CruzFrancisco Franca: 120 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 112 passningar, xT 0.32AlmeidaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 109 passningar, xT 0.18CruzMateus Pasinato: 101 passningar, xT 0.16PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 73 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 70 passningar, xT 0.13CostaJoao Pinto: 56 passningar, xT 0.16PintoAfonso Freitas: 54 passningar, xT 0.31Freitas
    Penafiel
    Alejandro Carbonell Vallés: 115 passningar, xT 0.07VallésJaime Sánchez Muñoz: 113 passningar, xT 0.25MuñozAdrián Hernández Hernández: 100 passningar, xT 0.1HernándezCláudio Moreira da Silva: 86 passningar, xT 0.39SilvaPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 82 passningar, xT -0.02SáMiguel Oliveira: 59 passningar, xT 0.13OliveiraGoncalo Negrao: 57 passningar, xT 0.44NegraoJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 55 passningar, xT 0.28PintoTeddy Alloh: 54 passningar, xT 0.07AllohMax Svensson Río: 24 passningar, xT 0.34RíoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 22 passningar, xT 0.14Rey
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Felgueiras
    Filipe Cruz: 124 passningar, xT 0.49CruzFrancisco Franca: 120 passningar, xT 0.48FrancaRolando António Pereira Rocha Almeida: 112 passningar, xT 0.32AlmeidaSamuel Oliveira Vivas Castro: 111 passningar, xT 0.18CastroEduardo Silvino da Cruz: 109 passningar, xT 0.18CruzMateus Pasinato: 101 passningar, xT 0.16PasinatoRodrigo Santos Ribeiro: 76 passningar, xT 0.3RibeiroArmando Roberto Torres Lopes: 73 passningar, xT 0.28LopesMichel Costa: 70 passningar, xT 0.13CostaJoao Pinto: 56 passningar, xT 0.16PintoAfonso Freitas: 54 passningar, xT 0.31Freitas
    Penafiel
    Alejandro Carbonell Vallés: 115 passningar, xT 0.07VallésJaime Sánchez Muñoz: 113 passningar, xT 0.25MuñozAdrián Hernández Hernández: 100 passningar, xT 0.1HernándezCláudio Moreira da Silva: 86 passningar, xT 0.39SilvaPedro Miguel Cunha Sá: 82 passningar, xT -0.02SáMiguel Oliveira: 59 passningar, xT 0.13OliveiraGoncalo Negrao: 57 passningar, xT 0.44NegraoJoão Gonçalo Teixeira Pinto: 55 passningar, xT 0.28PintoTeddy Alloh: 54 passningar, xT 0.07AllohMax Svensson Río: 24 passningar, xT 0.34RíoAntonio David Álvarez Rey: 22 passningar, xT 0.14Rey
    The goalkeepersMateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)Miguel Oliveira (Penafiel)
    Saves1314
    Save %77%93%
    xG prevented87%65%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Felgueiras
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Penafiel
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Felgueiras vs Penafiel according to our model?

    The model gives Felgueiras a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Felgueiras 45%, draw 30%, Penafiel 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.