Liga Portugal 2

    Läs på svenska
    Sporting CP BSporting CP B
    1–2
    LU
    Lusitania FC
    The model's lean: 2 · Lusitania FC (41%)

    Sporting CP B vs Lusitania FC · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Sporting CP B 41%X 19%41% Lusitania FC · 2

    Analysis: Sporting CP B – Lusitania FC

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Lusitania FC's balanced probabilities with Sporting CP U19 in their Liga Portugal 2 clash paint an intriguing picture. The model calls it 41% for each side to claim victory, a rare equilibrium that demands attention. Despite the apparent symmetry, there's a decisive lean towards the visitors, particularly given the betting markets. At odds of 3.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, Lusitania is priced at a 41% probability, highlighting a compelling value play for anyone seeking an edge.

    Sporting's youth side is on a roll, stringing together four consecutive victories. This winning streak is impressive, yet it doesn't overshadow the statistical equilibrium between the two teams. The predicted scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-2—reflect this balance, all tightly bunched around the possibilities of a draw or a narrow victory for either side. However, the 11% likelihood of a 1-1 draw stands out as particularly probable, suggesting that defences might just have a slight upper hand unless individual brilliance prevails.

    The expected goals data further fuels the anticipation of a close-fought battle: Sporting's 1.62 expected goals narrowly edges Lusitania's 1.39. These figures suggest a match where both sides will create chances but perhaps struggle to dominate. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 58%, indicating a slight lean towards a more open contest, yet the model's confidence in both teams to score (61%) could be where the smart money lies.

    In conclusion, while Sporting CP U19 boasts a form advantage, Lusitania's potential to upset them is significantly undervalued by odds setters. The away win at 3.45 is a standout opportunity—a solid assessment rooted in model confidence and market discrepancy. For those keen to capitalize on statistical insights, Lusitania's odds present a well-calculated chance to back an evenly poised encounter to swing in the visitors' favor.

    Sporting CP BSporting CP B
    Form DWWWW
    Key players
    • Mauro Meireles CoutoRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.17
    • Rafael Ribeiro MotaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    • Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira FelicíssimoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    Lusitania FC
    Form DWW
    Key players
    • Tiago Daniel Rodrigues DiasLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
    • Dylan João Raymond CollardCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
    • João Pedro Pereira SilvaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sporting CP B 41% · Draw 19% · Lusitania FC 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - LusitaniaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,02fair 9,69+34 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sporting CP B – Lusitania FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Lusitania FC →
    Sporting CP B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–16.5%
    0–24.8%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–111.4%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–19.0%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–03.5%
    3–14.9%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,62–1,39
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @1.70
    Over 2,558%
    @2.16EV+22%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (X2)57%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.19

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Lusitania FC or draw (X2)57%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • João Pedro Palma Santos to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Rafael Ferreira Nel to score27%
    • Diogo Filipe Eusébio Paulo to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Lusitania FC41% probability@3.99PinnacleEV+63%reference odds
    • 2 · Lusitania FC41% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+39%reference odds
    • 2 · Lusitania FC41% probability@3.40BetssonEV+39%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sporting CP BX2 · Lusitania FC
    Betsafe2.103.05
    EV+ 39%
    3.40
    Betsson2.103.05
    EV+ 39%
    3.40
    Nordicbet2.103.05
    EV+ 39%
    3.40
    Pinnacle2.152.94
    EV+ 63%
    3.99

    Odds updated 14 Sept, 05:10

    Odds movement

    10 %
    47 %42 %

    2.16 → 2.15

    X+7 %
    36 %31 %

    2.75 → 2.94

    2-5 %
    25 %20 %

    4.19 → 3.99

    Over 2,50 %
    46 %41 %

    2.17 → 2.16

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 14/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Sporting CP U19 come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sporting CP B
    Lusitania FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sporting CP B (7–2)
    Lusitania FC (6–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP B
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 206 passningar, xT 0.3FelicíssimoRafael Ribeiro Mota: 149 passningar, xT 0.17MotaMateo Tanlongo: 122 passningar, xT 0.08TanlongoLucas Taibo Dominguez: 102 passningar, xT 0.09DominguezRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 101 passningar, xT 0.59RodriguesSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 91 passningar, xT -0.06JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 79 passningar, xT 0.43CoutoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 66 passningar, xT 0.07PintoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 66 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 63 passningar, xT 0.03PiresMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 54 passningar, xT 0.09Sanha
    Lusitania FC
    Diogo Filipe Eusébio Paulo: 103 passningar, xT 0.13PauloArsénio Martins Lafuente Nunes: 88 passningar, xT 0.27NunesDylan João Raymond Collard: 74 passningar, xT 0.07CollardBruno Miguel Pinto Faria: 74 passningar, xT 0.06FariaFrancisco Machado: 70 passningar, xT 0.09MachadoFábio Miguel Jesus Carvalho: 70 passningar, xT 0.16CarvalhoRicardo José Veiga Varzim Miranda: 57 passningar, xT 0.34MirandaPaulo Miguel Gomes Ferreira: 35 passningar, xT 0.45FerreiraSaliou Mandiang: 33 passningar, xT 0.26MandiangVitor Hugo Batista Araujo de Mendonca: 29 passningar, xT 0.04MendoncaMarco Aurelio Ribeiro Sousa: 11 passningar, xT 0.02Sousa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sporting CP B
    Eduardo Manuel de Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo: 206 passningar, xT 0.3FelicíssimoRafael Ribeiro Mota: 149 passningar, xT 0.17MotaMateo Tanlongo: 122 passningar, xT 0.08TanlongoLucas Taibo Dominguez: 102 passningar, xT 0.09DominguezRodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues: 101 passningar, xT 0.59RodriguesSamuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo: 91 passningar, xT -0.06JustoMauro Meireles Couto: 79 passningar, xT 0.43CoutoKauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto: 66 passningar, xT 0.07PintoAtanásio Afonso Miranda Cunha: 66 passningar, xT 0.04CunhaGuilherme Meireles Pires: 63 passningar, xT 0.03PiresMicael Elias Silvestre Sanha: 54 passningar, xT 0.09Sanha
    Lusitania FC
    Diogo Filipe Eusébio Paulo: 103 passningar, xT 0.13PauloArsénio Martins Lafuente Nunes: 88 passningar, xT 0.27NunesDylan João Raymond Collard: 74 passningar, xT 0.07CollardBruno Miguel Pinto Faria: 74 passningar, xT 0.06FariaFrancisco Machado: 70 passningar, xT 0.09MachadoFábio Miguel Jesus Carvalho: 70 passningar, xT 0.16CarvalhoRicardo José Veiga Varzim Miranda: 57 passningar, xT 0.34MirandaPaulo Miguel Gomes Ferreira: 35 passningar, xT 0.45FerreiraSaliou Mandiang: 33 passningar, xT 0.26MandiangVitor Hugo Batista Araujo de Mendonca: 29 passningar, xT 0.04MendoncaMarco Aurelio Ribeiro Sousa: 11 passningar, xT 0.02Sousa
    The goalkeepersGuilherme Meireles Pires (Sporting CP B)Bruno Miguel Pinto Faria (Lusitania FC)
    Saves64
    Save %86%100%
    xG prevented42%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sporting CP B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Lusitania FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sporting CP B vs Lusitania FC according to our model?

    The model gives Lusitania FC a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting CP B 41%, draw 19%, Lusitania FC 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.