Liga Portugal 225°14 km/h

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    PortimonensePortimonense
    0–2
    TondelaTondela
    The model's lean: 1 · Portimonense (38%)

    Portimonense vs Tondela · Liga Portugal 2

    1 · Portimonense 38%X 30%32% Tondela · 2

    Analysis: Portimonense – Tondela

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Tondela's solitary win in the only head-to-head meeting since 2023 provides a limited snapshot, but the current dynamics suggest a more balanced contest this time. The model leans slightly towards the hosts, Portimonense, with a 38% chance of victory, reflecting their potential for a defensive edge at home. Despite Tondela's previous success in this matchup, the single game sample size offers little weight compared to season form and expected goals.

    The expected goals forecast of 1.32 for Portimonense and 1.28 for Tondela highlights how evenly matched these sides are. Portimonense's slight edge is mirrored in the most probable scoreline predictions, with a 1-1 draw at 13% and both a 1-0 win for the hosts and visitors each at 9%. This suggests a tightly contested affair likely to see goals from both sides, with a 53% chance of both teams scoring.

    With a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, the model does not favor a high-scoring game. Defensive solidity might dominate proceedings, and the markets align with this view, suggesting a cautious approach to betting on numerous goals. The likelihood of a low-scoring draw or a narrow victory underscores the conservative strategy that could prevail here.

    From a betting perspective, there's notable value in backing Portimonense to win at odds of 2.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given the model's 38% win probability for them offers a 12% edge. For those looking at market inefficiencies, this presents a clear opportunity. Balancing between the numbers and the edge, the smart money might just find its way into Portimonense's corner for this encounter.

    PortimonensePortimonense
    Form DWWLL
    Key players
    • Edney Henrique Santos da SilvaRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.15
    • Joao ReisLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
    • João Vitor Xavier de AlmeidaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    TondelaTondela
    Form WLLLW
    Key players
    • Joao MarcosFxG 0.50 · xT 0.03
    • António Manuel Fernandes MendesLWxG 0.35 · xT -0.10
    • CascavelRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Portimonense 38% · Draw 30% · Tondela 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Portimonense SCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,78fair 11,06+7 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - TondelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,14fair 11,83-23 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Portimonense – Tondela

    Predicted score matrix

    Tondela →
    Portimonense →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.8%
    0–19.1%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–18.3%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.6%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,32–1,28
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.68
    Over 2,548%
    @2.21EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.09

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Portimonense or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • João Marcos Lima Cândido to score23%
    • Lucas De Bolle to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@3.29PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
    • 1 · Portimonense38% probability@3.00BetssonEV+14%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PortimonenseX2 · Tondela
    Betsafe
    EV+ 14%
    3.00    		3.102.30
    Betsson
    EV+ 14%
    3.00    		3.102.30
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 14%
    3.00    		3.102.30
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 25%
    3.29
    EV+ 1%
    3.34    		2.25

    Odds updated 12 Sept, 10:28

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.76 to 1.68 (−4%).

    1+7 %
    33 %28 %

    3.07 → 3.29

    X-4 %
    30 %25 %

    3.48 → 3.34

    2+1 %
    44 %39 %

    2.22 → 2.25

    Over 2,5+8 %
    47 %42 %

    2.04 → 2.21

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 12/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Portimonense 0Draw 0Tondela 1
    Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Portimonense
    Tondela
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Portimonense (2–3)
    Tondela (5–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Portimonense
    Samuel Neves Bengue: 187 passningar, xT 0.24BengueJarleysom Ferreira de Amurim: 148 passningar, xT 0.13AmurimJoão Vitor Xavier de Almeida: 131 passningar, xT 0.1AlmeidaJoao Reis: 128 passningar, xT 0.58ReisEdney Henrique Santos da Silva: 108 passningar, xT 0.44SilvaMarlon Galvão Oliveira Júnior: 81 passningar, xT 0.34JúniorTiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira: 66 passningar, xT 0.17FerreiraJoão Diogo Pancadas Casimiro: 62 passningar, xT -0.01CasimiroYanis Franklin da Rocha: 62 passningar, xT 0.12RochaEduardo dos Santos Haesler: 57 passningar, xT 0.07HaeslerDanio Mamadi Djassi: 49 passningar, xT -0.03Djassi
    Tondela
    José María Pérez García: 185 passningar, xT 0.24GarcíaJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 170 passningar, xT 0.86RibeiroHugo Félix Sequeira: 163 passningar, xT 0.1SequeiraRui Filipe Caetano Moura: 148 passningar, xT 0.8MouraJoao Afonso: 104 passningar, xT 0.18AfonsoCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 82 passningar, xT 0.14SantanaCascavel: 80 passningar, xT 0.17CascavelGastón Alejandro Novero: 70 passningar, xT 0.66NoveroChristian Marques: 69 passningar, xT 0.1MarquesCarlos Eduardo de Araújo: 57 passningar, xT 0.01AraújoLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01Conchello
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Portimonense
    Samuel Neves Bengue: 187 passningar, xT 0.24BengueJarleysom Ferreira de Amurim: 148 passningar, xT 0.13AmurimJoão Vitor Xavier de Almeida: 131 passningar, xT 0.1AlmeidaJoao Reis: 128 passningar, xT 0.58ReisEdney Henrique Santos da Silva: 108 passningar, xT 0.44SilvaMarlon Galvão Oliveira Júnior: 81 passningar, xT 0.34JúniorTiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira: 66 passningar, xT 0.17FerreiraJoão Diogo Pancadas Casimiro: 62 passningar, xT -0.01CasimiroYanis Franklin da Rocha: 62 passningar, xT 0.12RochaEduardo dos Santos Haesler: 57 passningar, xT 0.07HaeslerDanio Mamadi Djassi: 49 passningar, xT -0.03Djassi
    Tondela
    José María Pérez García: 185 passningar, xT 0.24GarcíaJosé Ricardo Avelar Ribeiro: 170 passningar, xT 0.86RibeiroHugo Félix Sequeira: 163 passningar, xT 0.1SequeiraRui Filipe Caetano Moura: 148 passningar, xT 0.8MouraJoao Afonso: 104 passningar, xT 0.18AfonsoCícero Clébson Alves Santana: 82 passningar, xT 0.14SantanaCascavel: 80 passningar, xT 0.17CascavelGastón Alejandro Novero: 70 passningar, xT 0.66NoveroChristian Marques: 69 passningar, xT 0.1MarquesCarlos Eduardo de Araújo: 57 passningar, xT 0.01AraújoLucas Cañizares Conchello: 53 passningar, xT -0.01Conchello
    The goalkeepersEduardo dos Santos Haesler (Portimonense)Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)
    Saves78
    Save %70%73%
    xG prevented31%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Portimonense
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tondela
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Portimonense vs Tondela according to our model?

    The model gives Portimonense a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portimonense 38%, draw 30%, Tondela 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.