Porto B vs Vizela: Prediction & Odds (14 Sept 2026)

Liga Portugal 214 September 202623°8 km/h

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Porto B

2–2

Vizela

The model's lean: 2 · Vizela (48%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.13 (+2 %)

1 · Porto B 24%X 27%48% Vizela · 2

24%

27%

48%

Analysis: Porto B – Vizela

Oscar Nilsson · 12 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Vizela's 48% win probability casts a shadow over Porto B's chances in their upcoming clash. The visitors have had the upper hand recently, winning three of the four head-to-head encounters since 2023. While this small sample size doesn’t define the matchup, it complements the form book, which tilts toward Vizela. The model projects them as the more likely victor, with the expected goals (xG) suggesting a tight contest — Porto B at 1.12 and Vizela at 1.47.

Scoring might be at a premium, with the most probable outcomes being 1-1 at 13% and a Vizela victory at either 0-1 (11%) or 1-2 (9%). The numbers suggest a close game, riding on fine margins. The over/under 2.5 goal line sits evenly balanced at 48%, implying a cautious lean towards the under. However, both teams finding the net stands at 52%, hinting at a likely exchange of goals.

For those looking for a betting angle, the over 2.5 goals market presents a slight edge. Available at 2.1 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this wager carries a 1% edge according to the model's 48% rating. While small, this value might appeal to those seeking a calculated gamble in an otherwise balanced fixture.

Porto B

Form WLWLL

Key players

Trofim MelnichenkoFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
Dinis Andrade RodriguesRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
Antonio RibeiroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Vizela

Form WLDWW

Key players

Anthony CarterFxG 0.59 · xT -0.01
Matías Rafael Lacava GonzálezFxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
Miguel PiresCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Porto B 24% · Draw 27% · Vizela 48%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC Porto BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,03fair 15,54-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC VizelaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,52fair 9,08-17 %

Miss

Match prediction: Porto B – Vizela

Predicted score matrix

Vizela →

Porto B →

0–07.8%

0–110.6%

0–28.1%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.0%

1–08.0%

1–112.7%

1–29.1%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.7%

2–16.9%

2–25.1%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.8%

3–12.6%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,12–1,47

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.72

Over 2,548%

@2.13EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vizela to win48%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vizela to win48%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Matías Rafael Lacava González to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Bernardo Pinto Lima to score24%
Jean-Pierre Patrick Rhyner Pebe to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.548% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Porto B	X	2 · Vizela
Betsafe	3.65	3.25	1.98
Betsson	3.65	3.25	1.98
Nordicbet	3.65	3.25	1.98
Pinnacle	3.99	3.39	1.96

Odds updated 14 Sept, 05:10

Odds movement

1+7 %

26 %21 %

3.72 → 3.99

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.28 → 3.39

2-3 %

51 %46 %

2.03 → 1.96

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.13 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 14/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Porto B 1Draw 0Vizela 3

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Porto B

Vizela

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Porto B (2–9)

Vizela (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Porto B

Vizela

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Porto B

Vizela

The goalkeepers	João de Oliveira Afonso (Porto B)	Antonio Gomis Alemañ (Vizela)
Saves	14	15
Save %	61%	88%
xG prevented	39%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Porto B

Fixtures, form & tips

Vizela

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Porto B vs Vizela according to our model?

The model gives Vizela a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Porto B 24%, draw 27%, Vizela 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.