Academica vs Leixões: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Liga Portugal 224 October 202612°11 km/h

Läs på svenska

AcademicaLow block & direct

4–0

LeixõesPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Academica (36%)

1 · Academica 36%X 28%36% Leixões · 2

36%

28%

36%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Academica vs Leixões (Liga Portugal 2, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Academica win 36%, draw 28%, Leixões win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Academica 1.28, Leixões 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Academica or draw 64%, Leixões or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Academica – Leixões

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: The razor-thin probability gap captures the essence of Academica vs. Leixões: both teams are given a 36% chance to win, yet the model leans towards the hosts. Academica's low defense and direct approach contrasts with Leixões' possession control, suggesting a tactical battle where neither side might dominate. The expected goals are nearly identical, with Academica at 1.28 and Leixões at 1.20, pointing to a potential stalemate on the pitch.

Recent form gives Academica a slight edge with 12 points over Leixões' 10, though xPoints tell a different story, favoring the visitors by a slim margin. Defensively, Leixões holds a slight advantage, with an xGA of 1.1 compared to the hosts' 1.4. Yet, it’s Academica’s offensive xG of 1.5 that suggests they might have the upper hand in creating goal-scoring opportunities.

With a 51% probability of both teams finding the net and a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals, the game looks evenly poised between moderate scoring and a tighter affair. The model's sharpest angle? Betting on the home win with Betsafe at 2.9 odds, offering a 5% value edge, as the hosts are slightly favored to edge a closely matched contest.

Academica

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #13xT #4xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Gabriel Miranda RodriguesCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Leandro Pereira Da SilvaCDMxG 0.32 · xT 0.32
Amadou Matar CoundoulFxG 0.60 · xT 0.03

Leixões

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #14xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
Amadu BaldeCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Miguel Ferreira de SousaRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Academica 36% · Draw 28% · Leixões 36%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AcadémicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,32fair 11,95-14 %

Miss

Matchresultat - LeixoesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,89fair 13,48-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: Academica – Leixões

Predicted score matrix

Leixões →

Academica →

0–08.7%

0–19.7%

0–26.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.3%

1–113.2%

1–27.7%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.8%

2–18.2%

2–25.0%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.9%

3–13.5%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,20

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.78

Over 2,545%

@1.95

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Academica or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Academica or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Ilies Hassaine Daouadji to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Bryan Giovanni Róchez Mejia to score22%
Jean Carlos Sinisterra Angulo to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Academica36% probability@3.12PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
1 · Academica36% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
1 · Academica36% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Academica	X	2 · Leixões
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.95	3.20	2.25
LeoVegas	EV+ 5% 2.90	3.15	2.25
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.95	3.20	2.25
Pinnacle	EV+ 13% 3.12	3.36	2.33

Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:19

Odds movement

1+6 %

34 %29 %

2.95 → 3.12

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.36

2-2 %

42 %37 %

2.37 → 2.33

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Academica

Leixões

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Academica (10–10)

Leixões (9–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Academica

Leixões

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Academica

Leixões

The teams in numbers

Performance	Academica	Leixões
Points	12	10
xPoints	10.3	10.5
xG per match	1.5	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.26

Playing style	Academica	Leixões
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.49	0.62
xT per match	1.1	0.79
xTA per match	1.1	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	30	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.31
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	14	8
Pass completion %	0.68	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.7
Passes per match	261	305
Passes against per match	312	254
Switches of play per match	23	27
Long balls per match	33	33

Set pieces	Academica	Leixões
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.04
Corners per match	5.4	5.5
Corners against per match	5	4.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.29	0.73

Other	Academica	Leixões
Throw-in control	0.69	0.66

The goalkeepers	Carlos Reinaldo Moreira Alves (Academica)	Igor Stefanovic (Leixões)
Saves	13	14
Save %	72%	64%
xG prevented	29%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Academica

Fixtures, form & tips

Leixões

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Academica vs Leixões according to our model?

The model gives Academica a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Academica 36%, draw 28%, Leixões 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Academica vs Leixões?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Academica and 1.20 for Leixões, 2.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Academica or draw (1X) 64%, Leixões or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.